baseball prospectus thoughts on Dice-k

by cookedricebrown on Dec 13, 2006 6:33 PM EST Comment 9 comments

Baseball prospectus taking into account the team and park he pitches for has predicted a 4.01 era,15 wins,19 hr's given up,for 33 million a year thats pretty dissapointing if i was a sox fan or the sox owner who's paying him.sounds like a poor mans Mike Mussina,or maybe a tad better then a andy pettitte.

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Yankees Hate Warms My Heart.

Even if his arm comes flying off in spring training, just these few months of pissy Yankee fans makes me happy. Too bad you didn't link to this Baseball Prospectus Story. You know the one that says how awesome he's going to be.

The one that says "There seems to be a disconnect between my contention that PECOTA has a very good forecast for Daisuke Matsuzaka and the 4.01 ERA that forecast entailed."

"Here is how PECOTA compares Matsuzaka's projected ERA to a handful of other star pitchers, projected as members of the 2007 Red Sox."

Chris Carpenter, 3.95
Daisuke Matsuzaka, 4.01
Carlos Zambrano, 4.08
Roy Oswalt, 4.20
Barry Zito, 4.96

"Matsuzaka is almost certainly an All-Star caliber pitcher, and he might be a HOF-caliber pitcher. He's going to live up to the hype."

by stillredsoxfan on Dec 13, 2006 7:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA

Interesting exercise placing those three very good pitchers, and Barry Zito, as hypothetical Red Sox.

I wonder if a rotation with Zito as the 5th starter would have a certain unaccounted intimidation factor that PECOTA wouldn't be able to pick-up.

by faketeams on Dec 13, 2006 9:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yankee fans?

whats this have to due with yankee fans? im saying if you paying someone 33 million a year your expecting a little better than a 4.00 era. Personally all the Yankee fans i know really could careless at this point about the Jap,we've seen this story before with Nomo and Irabu........and for someone to say he might be a HOF caliber pitcher,is just hillarious,that writer should be fired......and i'll say again if he turns out to be Pettitte or Mussina you have to be somewhat dissapointed,with all the hype he better be Clemens in the blue jay days.

by cookedricebrown on Dec 13, 2006 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

You could have easily said all the Red Sox fans would happily pay that much to keep him from the yankees.

But if Dice-K pitches to a 4.00 wouldn't a Red Sox fan be happier knowing the yanks are stuck with another albatross contract?

I like ESPN's Eric Karabell's take:

Everyone reports about Matsuzaka's age, which is 26, but why does nobody discuss the fact he's pitched for eight seasons already! Huge red flag here, because that means a young arm was being abused in teenage years. Matsuzaka has had one significant arm injury, which cost him most of the 2002 season, but he did not have surgery. Frankly, if he had undergone Tommy John surgery I might view it more positively, since pitchers tend to come back stronger these days, but he didn't.

by faketeams on Dec 13, 2006 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Karabell is a retard.....

Does Karabellalso feel the same way about every Rice pitcher,or any other prodigy that pitches form the age of 12? I mean really, does he expect a pitcher to learn how to pitch through osmosis? By the time any pitcher hits the bigs, he has been throwing 3/4 of his life already!

C'mon, this is just dumb analysis. You can insert his favorite pitcher's name in Dice-K's slot in that article, and the same thing holds true....they're all abused at some point!

by thomasps3 on Dec 14, 2006 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm

How Dwight Gooden do after being abused in his pre-26-years-old years? Pitching in the NL at the dawn of the pre-steroids era and prior to the building of the new smaller ballparks?

Here is his basbeallcube.com page.

by faketeams on Dec 15, 2006 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yankee Fans Are Good At Math.

Where are you coming up with this $33 Mil a year? They paid $51 Mil for the right to negotiate and supposedly they are going to sign him for 6/$52 Mil with incentives that could push it to $60. So for arguments sake we will go with the high end and say the total is $111 Mil. At 6 years that comes out to an average of $18.5 Mil a year. Even if it comes out to a few Million higher on average, no way is it anywhere close to 33. Seems quite reasonable when you consider a certain percentage of that won't be counting against the luxury tax.

Hardball Times Agrees it's a good deal, so it must be true.

by stillredsoxfan on Dec 13, 2006 11:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs