Prospects Chats
Prospect Chats: Excerpts from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his top 101 prospects on Monday morning, and also held a chat to discuss some of his rankings on Monday. He's one of my favorite follows on Twitter, and you can find him @kevin_goldstein. Here's some of the excerpts, along with my thoughts as well.
Ryan (GR): Gerrit Cole over Shelby Miller. First time I've seen someone do that. Could you give me a one sentence explanation? Thanks
Kevin Goldstein: Way more stuff.
I'm pretty sure that his is the first list where I've seen Cole ahead of Miller, but we're talking about #9 and #10, so how much of a difference is up for debate.
Steve (PB): Take 2 prospects, one plays 1B and one plays SS (both field respective positions equally). What would the 1B's slash line need to look like to equal the SS line of .260/.330/.400?
Kevin Goldstein: .280/.365/.490
Obviously, this is taking into account that the defense has value, but it's an interesting exercise to see how much more offense a 1B prospect would need to produce to equal the value of the SS prospect's defense.
More Excerpts from Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects Chat
ESPN's Keith Law held a lengthy chat after releasing his Top 100 Prospects list on Thursday, and here are a few more excerpts from that chat:
Brandon (San Jose)
Molina seems like an ace, that splitter is nasty, why so low?
Klaw
(2:24 PM)Nestor? More like a 4-5, or even a reliever. Lacks a breaking ball, has control but not command.
This one is for dudedudedude. Waiting for him to dismiss KLaw in 3, 2, 1.........
Justin (San Diego)
Would you agree that Casey Kelly's pure stuff, i.e. velocity, has improved in the last couple of years even though his numbers have not been overwhelming?
Klaw
(1:28 PM)That is absolutely true.
In 27 AA starts last season, Kelly went 11-6 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.398 WHIP with 105 strikeouts to 46 walks. His stats say average starter, but add in the fact that he will pitch in Petco Park, and his numbers in the majors may look better than his minor league stats. I am just not convinced they will though.
More KLaw excerpts after the jump:
Excerpts from Keith Law Top 100 Prospects Chat
ESPN's Keith Law held a chat for insiders on Thursday to answer questions on his Top 100 prospect rankings, which were released Thursday morning. He also held a prospects chat in Spanish here.
For me, his Top 100 Prospect Rankings are the rankings I put the most faith in when evaluating prospects for my three keeper league drafts. I also use John Sickels rankings/ratings as well. I don't know why I lean toward Law's rankings over others including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Project Prospect, among others, but I just do. His analysis of each player is very informative.
Here are some excerpts:
Josh (Anchorage, AK)
Which 2 or 3 prospects do you have a gut feeling you may have ranked too low on your list? Great work, BTW.
Klaw
(1:06 PM)I'd start with Austin Hedges, who is in the just missed category. Could be too low on Delgado (if he's got a better chance to start than I think), Neil Ramirez (dinged him on health), and May.
Hedges is a name to remember as he is a catcher in the Padres organization who comes with much acclaim as a good defensive catcher with power.
Bunger (Syracuse)
Matt Davidson was a guy I didn't expect to see, can you give us some insight into what he ceiling might be at the plate?
Klaw
(1:15 PM)Average glove at third, chance to hit .300 with 20-25 HR and some walks.
Here's a guy who you won't see on many Top 100 prospect lists, but KLaw is high on him. One of the many reasons why I value his rankings more than most. I grabbed Davidson with the 4th pick in the minor league portion of the Fake Teams Dynasty League draft.
More excerpts after the jump:
Kevin Goldstein Chat Excerpts
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus held a chat on BP today. Here are some of the highlights:
@MarkusPotter
Bunger (NY): what do you think of Paxton joining the M's rotation this year?
Kevin Goldstein: I think it's unlikely, except maybe an outside shot at a September look.
The 23 year old Lefty has a tremendous fastball/curve combo and induces a good amount of ground balls. While Goldstein's ETA is Sept, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the summer. This is a young arm that could have a fantasy impact in 2012 and should of course be owned in dynasty leagues. This is a player to keep tabs on in spring training!
Bill Fisher (Syracuse): How many pitchers in the minors have a higher ceiling than Taijuan Walker right now?
Kevin Goldstein: Don't need more than two hands to count them.
I am VERY high on Walker. I agree on the ACE potential. He will be a household name in 2 years from now.
Jake (Kalamazoo): What can you offer by way of a scouting report on Jorge Soler? Thus far I've seen lots of excitement, little information.
Kevin Goldstein: Protypical RF package with plenty of athleticism and raw power. If he was an American high school kid entering the 2012 draft, he'd be a single-digit pick.
All the talk has been about the Youtube sensation Cespedes, but Soler is a name to remember. This power/speed combo will command a 20 Million plus contract. Still waiting on US clearance...
Prospect Chats: Excerpts from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus
Prospect expert Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus held a marathon chat on Thursday, and discussed a ton of highly ranked prospects. Let's take a look at some of the excerpts:
Xavier (Texas): Bigger offensive upside: Gose or Marisnick?
Jason Parks: Gose lacks the hit tool to project as a plus hitter, although his power is legit and the rest of his tools make me weak in the knees. Marisnick has the potential to hit for both average and power, so Im going to give him the edge.
The debate between Gose and Marisnick seems to be nearly a push at times, and it kind of depends on whether or not you think Gose can overcome his problems with strikeouts thus far. Gose is a little closer, but Marisnick seems to be better well rounded. That said, I took Gose instead of Marisnick in one of my minor league drafts, and think he can be a 20 HR, 40 SB bat in the Majors.
Immanuel #Want (Prussia): Are you as drooly over Billy Hamilton as Goldstein? Can he make enough contact to utilize that #wantastic speed, and does he develop the arm to stick at SS?
Jason Parks: No. I think speed can get overrated in the minors. I love his speed; fastest guy in baseball. But I'm not sure he sticks at SS, and I'm not sure his hit tool is all that. What does that make him? A slappy 2B with crazy speed and little-to-no power. I think he's closer to a utility player than a starting shortstop.
I have been a huge fan of Hamilton, and am hoping like crazy he can continue to hit enough to make the speed worthwhile for my fantasy team. He stole 103 bases last season, and in my opinion if he can post a .250 batting average in the Majors, he could steal 50+.
Prospects Chat: Excerpts from Keith Law Chat
I haven't done one of these in awhile, so here are some excerpts from Keith Law's chat from Thursday afternoon. He mentioned that his Top 100 will be published the week after the Superbowl, so we have about 3 weeks to wait for that list.
But, with that said, John Sickels will be publishing his first Top 100 list this year at some point. He will publish it on Minor League Ball and Baseball Nation. Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and Project Prospect will be publishing their Top 100 Prospects for 2012 lists in the next week or two as well, so there is a lot to look forward to leading into mid-February.
Onto the excerpts after the jump:
Prospects Chat: Excerpts from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus
Kevin Goldstein completed a chat on Friday over at Baseball Prospectus, and here's some of the more interesting tidbits from it:
jamin67038 (Wichita, KS): Derek Norris' ceiling in the majors? .260/.380/.450?
Kevin Goldstein: I'd take at least 20 points off that batting average and therefore all three.
The newly acquired prospect for the A's, Norris has shown power (.236 ISO) and the ability to draw a walk (77 last year), but somehow managed to hit just .210 while doing so last year. It doesn't appear that he's likely to hit for a particularly good batting average, but his numbers should still play well as a fantasy catcher.
SenatorsGuy (DC): Jean Segura - one year removed from the move to SS - what are the comments on his ability to stick at SS?
Kevin Goldstein: He's one year removed, but he barely played because of the hamstring issues, so we need more data. Early returns were promising however.
Segura was coming off a season in 2010 where he hit 10 home runs and stole 50 bases in the Midwest League, but missed a majority of last season due to the injuries. If he can stick at shortstop AND show that he can return to form when healthy, he could be right behind Machado and Profar as the #3 shortstop prospect in all of baseball.
Steve (California): Trevor Bauer, I've heard ceiling of #1 and floor of #3 (barring some horrible breakdown), you agree? Also do you think there is something behind all the long-toss workouts? Do you think it actually makes a pitcher more durable? How much stock do you put in it?
Kevin Goldstein: I'd go with No. 2 ceiling and No. 4 floor, but some people define those differently. As for the long-tossing, I think it's much ado about nothing. It works for him, and nobody should change what he does, but it's not some revolution.
Bauer was recently rated as the #3 prospect for 2012 by our own Craig Goldstein, and as the #4 prospect for 2012 by me as well. I doubt highly that he won't be pitching in the Majors for the Diamondbacks by the end of the season.
Prospect Chats: Marc Hulet of Fangraphs
Marc Hulet of Fangraphs recently completed a prospect chat, and here's some of the excerpts for that:
Comment: Please rank your personal Top 10 pitching prospects. Here is a list of some possible guys: Bauer, Hultzen, Bundy, Bradley, Cole, Teheran, Moore, Miller, Skaggs, Wheeler, Parker, Banuelos, Betances, Turner, Odorizzi, Harvey, Martinez, Cole.MH: Matt Moore, Trevor Bauer, Shelby Miller, Dylan Bundy, Tyler Skaggs, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Zack Wheeler, Jarrod Parker... in that order, I think.
Hard to argue with that order for pitching prospects, although I tend to weigh performance slightly more. I do think it is interesting that he places Skaggs ahead of Teheran.
Comment: Will Middlebrooks and Alex Liddi, the opposing starting thirdbasemen in the 2011 Futures Game, are like-aged, similarly sized, righthand-hitting prospects with comparable minor league numbers (although Liddi walks more and is a level ahead of Middlebrooks). Who is the better prospect?MH: Middlebrooks and it's not close. He's a much better athlete and a much better all-around hitter.
I recently put Middlebrooks behind Liddi for the 2012 season as a part of my fantasy 3B prospect rankings, but put him ahead of Liddi long-term. The Mariners don't seem sold on Liddi either, so we'll see if he has a shot long-term to stick there.
Comment: Any word on Matthew Purke and the health of that left shoulder? What level do you think he will start out at this season?MH: I haven't heard good things. I wouldn't be shocked if he begins the year in extended spring to try and build up the shoulder.
The Nationals gave him overslot money to get him signed in the 4th round, and if he is healthy he could jump right back up toward the top of the prospect rankings. Realistically, he's probably a few years away still, especially if this season ends up being a rebuilding season in terms of his shoulder.
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