Chris Johnson - With a record breaking 2,509 yards from scrimmage and 14 total TD's, he's vaulted himself over Jones-Drew and Peterson as the number one RB in the league going into 2010.  Posting roughly 50 more fantasy points than number 2 (Peterson), he put up the best fantasy season since LT's '06 campaign. LenDale White's departure via free agency alleviates any lingering concerns over vultured touchdowns.  The system is the same, the personnel is the same, and there is zero competition for carries.  

Aaron Rodgers - For the first time since 2002, we're looking at the preseason number one QB being someone not named Brady, Manning, or Brees.  An argument can be made for Manning or Brees for sure, but for my money I'll take Rodgers' upside and his 300 rushing yards per season.  The skill positions in Green Bay are loaded and he's another year into the system.

Jamaal Charles - Out of nowere.  From bench fodder to a first round pick in 2010.  The same size as Chris Johnson with the same skill set, Charles put down an insane 1,126 yards from scrimmage and 8 total TD's in 8 games, with a 6 yards per carry average..  Double that for an entire season and he's the number one back in the league.  Obviously you can't just double it and call it a year, and 6 YPC isn't sustainable, but the simple fact that he did what he did with the same offensive line that Larry Johnson mustered less than 3 YPC with speaks for itself.

Miles Austin - In a similar vein to Jamaal Charles, Austin went from fantasy bench fodder to a unequivacle top 10 WR. Forced to rank him right now, I'll put him at #8 behind Johnson, Wayne, Fitz, V-Jax, Calvin, White, and Desean Jackson.  Considering the variables involved with Moss, Marshall, and Sidney Rice, he's a safe top 10 pick.

Ladainian Tomlinson - It's officially the end of an era.  Although he didn't let fantasy owners down as an RB2 with 900 yards and 12 TD's, he averaged a measely 3.3 yards per carry, which continued the 4 year slide from 5.2 to 4.7 to 3.8 to where he stands now.  LT is this years version of Shaun Alexander and Priest Holmes; former fantasy greats that went from stardom to the free agent pool in 2 calendar years.  Don't consider him more than a RB3 next year. 

If you even give a damn about this post, chances are you've made it to the finals of your fantasy football league.

In most cases, this means that you're probably getting at least your money back, or better. If not, my apologies. In what is my most competitive and important league, I netted the most total points and won my division, so now getting to the finals means I've already tripled my entry fee, and then some.

I've recommended many of the players that I drafted this year, and this was a very good year in terms of my predictions, somewhat unlike some of my calls in fantasy baseball the past year. More often than not, that indicates widespread success; I also made the playoffs in every other league I participated in. Hopefully if you've followed some of my tips, you're in a similar situation.

To those who weren't so fortunate, it stings. In two money leagues last year, I finished third in points in both, and didn't reach the playoffs in either. Sometimes a great team sputters out in the first week of the playoffs, and that's all the difference between the best and the bittersweet. Who would've thought my lineup of Schaub, Johnson, Rice, V. Jackson, Welker, Colston and Fred Davis would falter? Well, this is why fantasy football is a little more luck than baseball. We're playing even fewer games than the full NFL schedule to determine the playoffs, and sometimes NFL teams fall subject to the same fate.

You're welcome to post any last minute questions here, and hopefully Ian can also answer them. I'll try to get to any that I see, but I won't promise I'll be able to get on. I'll be traveling to Cincinnati to watch my Chiefs battle for victory (read: a better draft pick) against the Bengals, in what should be a very emotional game in their first trip back since the death of Chris Henry.

For a fantasy preview on that game, I like Jamaal Charles as a mid-high No. 2 back against a formidable Bengals run defense, and really no other Chiefs players. CB Leon Hall has been under the radar for Cincy, and should blanket Dwayne Bowe very well. Maybe Chris Chambers picks up the majority of the slack on the opposite side. On the Bengals, well, start 'em all. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad OchoCinco are all solid plays, and I expect a touchdown from one of Andre Caldwell or Laveranues Coles. I'm wondering if the Bengals will give Larry Johnson a chance for retribution against the Chiefs, but perhaps that also plays a roll in firing up Kansas City if he gets in there. Unless I haven't said it before, I really don't like the guy, and I won't be shedding tears if he breaks a leg. Oops.

Good luck this week, and Happy Holidays to everyone.

TROR

Let me share a little situation that I faced tonight. I just want to emphasize something that, so far, paid off.

Looking around at a lot of "expert" rankings, I saw Mike Sims-Walker ranked fairly low. Well, he's been injured, and frankly, been pretty abysmal over the last few weeks. No doubt due to injury, but also to a weak offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Staying a step ahead of my opponents, I picked up RB Chris Jennings of Cleveland with my waiver claim, and then RB Arian Foster of the Texans as soon as waivers passed. Keeping ahead of your opponents, lesson one. One of the readers left a comment in my Ask TROR post about looking forward to the next week (playoff seeded-bye or not) as far as matchups and depth go, which is excellent. This is the kind of strategy that consistently will put you a tier above other players.

In regards to the original point, I was left with a flex option of Jennings, Foster, or Sims-Walker, who I picked up off the free agent wire early in the season. Now, all signs by any advice you read were to stay away from MSW tonight. For the reasons I listed above, that the Colts weren't resting starters, and that they were ranked as the second best scoring defense in the NFL. OK, all valid points.

So, what about the reasons why he should be started? I've got a huge one: Does anyone remember Brandon Marshall last week? 21 catches for their star receiver, anyone? Anyone? I saw reports that the Colts should try and double-team Sims-Walker. What, you mean that Denver has some other second receiver that's ultra-dangerous on an island? Child, please. On top of that, the Colts secondary is banged up, and hasn't been spectacular by any means.

In the end, after even inserting Jennings once, I stuck with my guns. Sims-Walker scores and puts up 12+ points. Did I expect No. 1 receiver production, no, but he did what I expected, if not more for his slot.

How does this apply to anyone? Do your own research, look at the numbers, and rankings and projections don't mean jack at this point. You know what the established players are going to do as well as anyone, and for the guys you don't know about, well..no one else does much more.

For everyone who played against the Colts stars or MJD this weekend, good luck, and that goes for everyone else.

I know, I know, I've been more absent and missed than Troy Polamalu.

In my absence, I've been covering some of the top 100 prep basketball players in the country, getting a new laptop that I'm coming to you now on, and orchestrating my own fantasy success.

Now, If you're reading this article, chances are you've made it to your fantasy football playoffs. Congrats! If you followed some of my advice this season, there's a good possibility it benefited your teams the way it did mine. I made the playoffs in all leagues, and finished in first place in three out of four. Even better, I'm seeing dollar signs after I rode Ray Rice and Brandon Marshall, and won my division and scored the most points in my big bucks league. There's still money to be won and crap to be given to your buddies, family and co-workers in hopes you win your league, though.

Even with the best teams after 14 weeks, injuries can bog you down, and decisions and pickups become absolutely crucial. Do you stick with the big guns that got you there, or go with the hot hand?

With a Thursday and Saturday night game this week, injury situations and early decisions are crucial. I'll take those, flex decisions and anything else you might need help with. Bring on the questions, and good luck.

To everyone who stayed in, had a quiet night and watched some college basketball, good morning and Happy Thanksgiving. To everyone else who had a little too much to drink last night, your hangover isn't about to get any better: the Lions are on today.


Real quick, I want to breakdown today's performers. I'll do it in three categories:

Cherry Pie Plays (Big Performers/Must-Start):

• Green Bay's Offense: Sorry, but it's just easier this way. I feel like Rodgers, Grant, and Jennings are probably all worth counting on for 15+ points. Hell, even Mason Crosby is going to rack up some points today. With a healthy set of offensive tackles, Green Bay has rebounded from their abysmal lack (and by lack, I mean non-existent) of pass protection, and the offense is taking shots down the field to their deep threat in Jennings. This is going to sap away some value of the opposite receiver, sorry Driver owners. The veteran is probably still good for at least 60-70 yards, though, with the possibility for a score. I also like Jermichael Finley in this game, a lot. I picked him up this week after losing Owen Daniels several weeks ago, and I'm expecting 40-50 yards, with a great chance at a score.
• WR Calvin Johnson: He is a Transformer! From unlikely to play to the starting lineup, Megatron is expected to be in the starting lineup today. Green Bay's defense is ravaged with injuries, and big players always come to play on Thanksgiving. If you have another top 20 option, it's probably safer, but it's hard to ignore the T.U.P. (tremendous upside potential). Would it surprise you if he puts up 25 points? There's your answer.
• RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Steve Smith (NYG): Brandon Jacobs is going to look like a Neo-Pet, getting fed carries at every opportunity today. On top of that, Ahmad Bradshaw won't be around to scoop up any leftovers. Meanwhile, Steve Smith is always reliable, and you're not going to see Champ Bailey blanketing Smith tonight, either. In fact, if he gets matched up with Ty Law, he's probably going to see plenty of looks.

Fantasy Stuffing (Solid play, but not elite):

• RB Kevin Smith: He's real close to being in that next category above, but don't over-react to last week's production against Cleveland. Remember, it's the Browns. Do we really know how much of a loss to this run defense Aaron Kampman is? He wasn't making a great deal of impact being moved to OLB, but we'll see how they react. He gets targeted in the passing game, though, so even if the Lions fall behind, he can still rack up stats.
  
• RB Felix Jones: Why? It's a gut feeling, partly, but also because I believe that Dallas is going to try and hand him the rock more frequently. They feel like he's ready for more carries, and I don't think he'll disappoint. It's a real juicy matchup as a good flex player against the Raiders in Jerryworld.
  
• WR Brandon Marshall: Listen, if you can afford to sit Marshall this week, go for it. But I'm not saying he won't score two touchdowns, either. Another guy that you won't be surprised if he just goes off. But CB Aaron Ross is healthy for the Giants, and they've been missing that in a defense that's ranked second in the league in passing YPG allowed. For reference, my other options on the team with Marshall are Bernard Scott and Nate Burleson. I'm starting Burleson, if that helps at all. 

Turkeys (A no-thank you portion, Grandma):

• TE Brandon Pettigrew: He's looked good, but I think he's going to do a good deal of blocking this week against LB Clay Matthews. He'll be busy with that. Maybe next year we're talking about Pettigrew as a borderline No. 1 tight end. Not now though, and not this week.
• QB Kyle Orton: I think this one's fairly obvious, but if not, there's some good reasons. He's still bothered by the ankle, and it's still going to effect his play this week. Also, with Ross back, I've already mentioned the Giants. They're allowing about 200 yards through the air per week, so here's a modest prediction: 200 yards, a touchdown, and an INT, giving you 10 points. Hopefully you have another option out there. Try Vince Young.
  
• TE Jason Witten: This guy has been one of the major disappointments this year, and it's been hard to explain. FOX's Jay Glazer reports that Witten will play, but with a lack of production coupled with the injury, I'm even more skeptical.
  

I don't think anyone's really expecting any upsets today, although, anything can happen. If Stafford looks healthy, I can't say I'd be totally surprised if somehow the Lions pulled the upset. If the Cowboys were taking on the Raiders in Oakland, I wouldn't rule out the upset, but on Thanksgiving in Dallas, I don't think it's going to happen.

Happy Thanksgiving again to everyone. I'll be spending tomorrow and then Saturday at Ford Field covering some great players at their own level in the Michigan high school finals. Eat well and good luck this week.

Ladell Betts- After Clinton Portis was knocked out of the game with a concussion, Betts came in and put up 70 yards on 15 carries with one reception for 23 yards and a rushing score. Portis could miss next week and if that's the case, Betts will likely get the vast majority of carries so start him if you need a guy who will touch the ball a fair amount.

Michael Turner- 180 total yards, 2 rush TDs. Next week plays an offense that allows 122 YPG on the ground. Oh yeah, in the fantasy championship, faces the worst rush defense in the NFL.

Roddy White- Three catches for 27 yards could have been due to a sore knee or the fact that they stopped passing the ball in the second half. Either way, I'm starting White week in and week out. 

Kurt Warner- The old man rebounds from a 5 interception game to throw five touchdowns and 261 yards against the Bears. IN the next few weeks he's got Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, Minnesota, San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis again in the fantasy championships. One thing all of those teams have in common....? Allowing 219 pass yards or more per game.

Matt Forte- I told you you should have sold high on him last week.

Ray Rice- 12 rushes for 48 yards and a rush touchdown and 8/87 receiving yards. Rice is an every week start, no matter who he plays as he has put up point on a consistent basis throughout the season.

Cedric Benson- The league leader in carries pounded out his fourth 100 yard game and added his sixth touchdown. in week 15, Benson gets a San Diego Chargers offense that has allowed 130.1 YPG on the ground and in week 16 faces a Kansas City offense allowing 136.2 YPG. If Benson struggles at any point in the next few weeks, I'd try and buy low for his quality match ups in the playoffs.

Matt Schaub- Quietly the league leader in passing yards and tied for the lead in passing touchdowns. Consider him and every week start.

Ryan Moats/Steve Slaton- Moats has 16 carries for 38 yards while Slaton has 6 for 17 and the sole rushing touchdown while Moats catches the only passing touchdown on the night. When Moats failed to score on two consecutive drives on the 2 and 1 yard line, Slaton came in and scored from the one to begin the fourth quarter. I also forgot to mention Moats' lost fumble. Don't be surprised to see Slaton get the majority of carries next week after Moats averaged 2.4 YPC and lost a fumble.

Dallas Clark- 14 catches for 119 yards. That's just ridiculous. Start him with confidence every week.

Davone Bess- Targeted 14 times and caught six passes for 56 yards. I didn't watch this game but how many of those 14 targets were catchable?

Lawrence Maroney- 20 carries for 82 yards and a score. Seems to me that the Patriots have gained a bit more confidence in Maroney after giving him all but four carries (one came from Tom Brady, likely on a scramble.)

James Jones- 4 receptions for 103 yards and one touchdown. Looks pretty good, eh? How about after I tell you that 74 of those yards and that touchdown came from one play? Yeah, don't start him.

Josh Freeman- 205 yards with three touchdowns, but didn't even complete half of his passes. I'm not putting any stock into this start and I won't start him unless he can start completing over half of the passes he throws.I just said "start" a lot there.

Chris Chambers- Thrown to four times in his first start with the team and had  70 yards and 2 scores. If I were a betting man, I would bet that this doesn't happen very often. Cassel still targeted two other receivers twice as much as Chambers. Granted it was his first game in a new system. If Chambers is targeted more and still puts up yards, I may consider him in deep, deep, deep leagues as a WR3. He still has Dwayne Bowe to compete with.

Mike Sims-Walker- 8 targets, six catches for 147 yards and one touchdown with the longest play a 61 yarder. Take away that 61-yard play and Walker still had a good day. I'm a believer.

Maurice Jones-Drew- The Jags finally decided to give him the ball. Sure, he only had 3.3 YPC, but he scored you some points, right?

Matt Hasselbeck- Seattle being down 17-0 in the first quarter played a big part in Hasselbeck's 51 passes. Seattle's got a similar ease of schedule as the Cardinals do, so don't be afraid to use Hasselbeck. Oh yeah, in the fantasy championship, he gets the worst pass defense in the Tennessee Titans.

DeAngelo Williams- John Fox has finally decided to use DeAngelo Williams like he should be used...more than 20 carries a game. get the ball in the hands of your playmaker and have him carry you to victory (or at least make it a closer game.)

LaDainian Tomlinson- Well, many thought you had another year in you for fantasy purposes....I guess we were wrong. I can't see myself using him comfortably in any matchup this year.

Steve Smith (Giants)- Led the Giants in targets, yards and receptions. He's been this way all season, so I don't expect the future to be any different. Maybe take into account how Eli struggles in the cold months, but I think Smith is good enough to put up good numbers despite it.

Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw- Bradshaw gets three more carries, while Jacobs makes the most with his, nearly doubling Bradshaw's yards. Expect this kind of split going forward, unless one of these two get injured.

Chris Johnson/Frank Gore- Both gave you excellent games with Johnson scoring the majority of his points on the ground and Gore giving you excellent numbers on the ground as well as through the air.

Vernon Davis- 10 receptions for 102 yards. As long as Alex Smith is the quarterback in San Francisco, expect Davis to be used a good chunk of the time. This is the guy you hoped for all of the years you drafted him before and is finally proving he can be as useful to your fantasy team as he is in Madden.

Miles Austin- 1 reception for 49 yards and a TD. He was targeted half as many times as Roy Williams was and scored more with one catch that Williams did with five. I don't even know how to respond...

Steve Slaton- How many of you had your week dumped on by Gary Kubiak? How dare he bench many people's top fantasy football running back against the worst rush defense in the NFL? Slaton fumbled for the seventh time on the season and was benched for the remainder of the game.See below for the rest. 

Ryan Moats- Moats was brought into the game after Slaton coughed up his job in the first quarter of the Texan's game against the Bills and never looked back. As previously mentioned, the worst rush defense in the NFL allowed Moats to rush for 126 yards on 23 carries with three touchdowns. Kubiak isn't giving any information as to what the future holds but my guess is that Slaton will get carries in between the 20's and Moats will get the goal line carries with a few carries here and there. I just find it unlikely that the Texans bench their 23-year old running back of the future after such a strong rookie season.

Owen Daniels- Keeping with the theme of letdowns, Owen Daniels is out for the season with a knee injury that will require surgery. The Texans will probably be using Joel Dreessen in the tight end spot. I don't expect anything of him, but I can see Schaub targeting Kevin Walter a bit more. If you've got Walter, I'd hold onto him for a bit and see what happens.

Joe Flacco- Posted a QB rating of 109.2 but only threw for 175 yards and one touchdown. Denver's defense has allowed only 170 yards per game to opposing QBs and ranks sixth in the NFL in yardage against, so it's not totally surprising that Flacco didn't have an excellent day. Flacco will have to face the defenses of Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Cincinnati, so play him wisely.

Ray Rice- 23 carries, 84 yards and one rushing touchdown with 5 receptions for 24 yards. Rice continues to be one of the more productive running backs in the NFL, despite facing a few solid defenses. Because Rice has so many touches in the rushing game and receptions, he can be a viable fantasy option week in and week out and I fully expect Rice to finish the season as a top 10, if not top 5 fantasy running back in 2009/2010.

Brandon Marshall- After putting up  number one receiver stats over the last few weeks, Marshall and the Broncos failed to put up even decent numbers against a pass defense that ranks right about the middle of the pack in receiving yards against.

Jay Cutler- 17/30, 225 yards, 0 TD 1 INT. Against another middle of the pack pass offense, Cutler puts up rather boring numbers. Expect him to do this a few more times, just when it happens is up to us to find out.

Matt Forte- It took Forte twenty three carries to still not break 100 yards (90) but Forte made up for for it with two TDs. He's averaging 3.5 YPC in 2009 and I has a fairly brutal schedule ahead of him against the defenses of Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore and Minnesota again. If there was a time to sell high on Forte it was before he stepped foot on the field this season. But since you can't turn back time, I'd try moving him immediately.

Devin Hester- Caught seven passes for 81 yards and moved up into the top 20 in receptions and yardage. Hester has the same nasty schedule as Forte (obviously) and if you can get something for him, I would try and pull the trigger. If not, hope he keeps catching passes and hope he can get you a big play here and there.

Matt Hasselbeck- While the Seahawks looked pretty awful, Hasselbeck put up quality numbers. The problem in Seattle is the offensive line (or lack of) and I can see Hasselbeck having good games, but I can also see him having bad games if he's pressured. The Seahawks will face a good number of mediocre/bad defenses from here on out, so count on Hasselbeck to be a decent play.

Nate Burleson- 6 receptions for 89 yards and a lost fumble. Burleson has stepped up to be the one of the favorite receivers in  Seattle in 2009 and T.J. Houshmandzadeh isn't a fan. I'd be happy and confident starting Burleson on a weekly basis as he should put up decent numbers week in and week out.

Deion Branch- Hopefully you didn't add him to your team after his 3/38 with 1 TD outing last night. With so many options in Seattle, I don't see Branch being a useful option in 2009. 

Tony Romo- Been a top 10 fantasy QB in 2009 and there's no reason to think he'll be any different from here on out. He may have times where he's wildly inconsistent, but Dallas still has a good offense and with the emergence of Miles Austin, Romo has someone to throw to.

Miles Austin- Over his last three games, Austin has had 21 receptions, 482 yards and five TDs. Romo seems to have found his new favorite receiver in Dallas and it's not Roy Williams.

Josh Brown- Now has half as many TDs as JaMarcus Russell. That is all.

Steven Jackson- Tied for second in the NFL in yardage, Jackson has only scored once so far this season but continues to rack up the yards with a 22/149 performance and his first score on the season. Don't expect him to finish the season with only one touchdown but it's safe to say he will remain near the top of the league for yardage, and the scores should come.

Frank Gore- 91 rushing yards on 14 carries with a 64-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Gore continues to be one of the more flukey players in 2009 and if he doesn't break off a large run, I have a hard time seeing Gore produce numbers deserving of where you drafted him.

Michael Crabtree- In his second ever game in the NFL, Crabtree caught six passes for 81 yards, but likely lost you some points on a fumble. It seems like the 49ers are trying to get the ball in their bet receiver's hands and I don't expect that to diminish at this point. Sure, he'll have games where he excels, but he'll also have games where he will give you nothing. Do with that what you will.

Indianapolis Offense- They are good, start them. How many times are we going to see Peyton Manning put up 347 yards and still throw one less touchdown than Joesph Addai?

Ronnie Brown- 11 rushes for 27 yards. Brown put up a 3.5 YPC against the Jets in their week five meeting but has a schedule consisting of some of the worst opponents against the run including Carolina, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville in the fantasy playoffs. If you can buy low on Brown, now's the time to do so.

Brandon Jacobs- Was given the ball 20 times and rushed for a 4.3 YPC but failed to score yet again. Ahmad Bradshaw was given the ball only nine times, but scored once with his longest run being 4 yards. He's been a bit injured as of late, so expect Jacobs to return to getting a large portion of carries and expect that TD total to climb.

Giants WRs- Steve Smith led the Giants with 8 catches, which is twice as many as the runner up Hakeem Nicks. I'm still playing Steve Smith every week as it looks like Eli still likes him as the go-to guy in New York.

DeSean Jackson- Only three catches, but scored and finished with 78 yards. Jackson is one of the most dangerous players on the field and can score on any play if he gets the ball. I don't want that kind of guy to rely on as my number one, but have no problems using him as a 2 or 3. Just don't expect him to lead the team in catches and yards every week as most of his plays are big plays.

Vincent Jackson- 8 receptions, 103 yards, 1 TD. If you can, trade for him right now. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he ends up as a top five receiver at season end. I guess that's really not "out on a limb" since he's already there. But yeah. Go get him.

Maurice Jones-Drew- 8 rushes, 177 yards and 2 rush TDs. That's a 22.1 average for those of you getting ready to break out the calculator. Even with a small amount of touches, he still seems to be a very productive fantasy running back.

Chris Johnson- 24 rushes for 228 yards and 2 TDs. This is Johnson's second game where he's topped over 200 yards of offense. My guess is that he doesn't do it again, but if anyone will, it'll be  him. Use him confidently week in and week out as he's all they've got in Tennessee.

Greg Jennings- 8 receptions for 88 yards and a score. Your chance to buy low on Jennings may have just gone out the window.

Jonathan Stewart- If Stewart can continue to get 12-17 carries a game, I fully expect him to be a viable RB2, but since I can't guarantee anything, I feel confident starting him at flex on a weekly basis.

Kurt Warner- 5 interceptions. It's like the 2008/2009 playoffs...The better team coughed the game up.

Faketeams will be available on twitter to answer any start or sit questions you may have. Let's hear them!