More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

That's not a typo, I have him ranked #17 right now. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Happy Independence Day!  Let's talk rankings!!

I think the second batch of QBs are always the hardest -- you have some guys that will surprise and end up in the Top 10 and some guys that will be huge busts.

Last year was a great year for fantasy wide receivers: eight receivers topped 1200 receiving yards, three topped 1400 receiving yards and league leader Andre Johnson was only 25 yards short of a whopping 1600 receiving yards.  Fantastic!

A closer look at the leaderboard showed something interesting though: six of the top ten wide receivers played on teams that didn't make the playoffs.   Considering that bad teams usually are behind in games and tend to throw the ball a lot, it's easy to understand why.  The problem is that there are a lot of non-playoff teams and not a lot of top ten wide receivers.   Which ones do you target?

Looking at last year's list, you can probably count on Marshall to return to the Top 10 if he stays with the Broncos.  Jennings could be a Top 5 WR this year and the combo of Johnson and Johnson are almost certain to be back (though Houston could certainly make the playoffs).

Here's my list of potentially great wide receivers on potentially crappy non-playoff teams.

Dwayne Bowe, KC - He has the talent, but his new QB might be spending too much time on his back.

Marques Colston, NO - The Saints are a very good team and they're probably only the third best team in their division.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - The Seahawks won't win the West, but Houshmandzadeh is capable of a career season.

Chad Ochocinco, Cin - He was the WR2, now he's the WR1 with a veteran WR2 (Coles) and QB (Palmer).  Sweet!

Roy Williams, Dal - This assumes Williams produces at a level he hasn't shown to date.

How about that for a crazy headline.  "Lions Make Great Move"???  And then the word "Northcutt" in there too?!

But yes, it's true.  Detroit picked up  WR Dennis Northcutt in a trade with the Jaguars and it gives them a solid, veteran slot receiver.

Northcutt, a nine-year NFL veteran, has run many of the Lions’ plays before. He mostly needs to learn new terminology.

But he wants to make sure he knows every receiver position inside and out before training camp opens July 31, so he doesn’t have to play catch up with his new teammates.

"I will tell you: By the time I get to camp, I will know the whole playbook," Northcutt said. "That I have no problem with. … My job for the next month is learning this offense."

So even though Northcutt has been fantasy-worthless for his entire career, this is a great fantasy move.  Not because Northcutt will be worth a slot on your fantasy team --  he won't be.  It's because having a possesion receiver like him in the lineup will make Calvin Johnson and rookie Derrick Williams better.  It will also make QB Matt Stafford's life a little bit easier. 

The Lions just got better.  Huh.

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

18 days ago: Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks Jon Kitna (3) and Tony Romo (9) drop back to make passes duringpractice session at football minicamp in Carrollton, Texas, Tuesday, June 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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In a blog post on the Dallas Morning News site, there's an interesting article about how Bengals' QB Carson Palmer was praising his former mentor - and current Cowboys' backup QB - Jon Kitna.   Palmer went on about how Kitna has a lot to teach starter Tony Romo and that Romo should listen to him.  It was a nice, respectful comment by Palmer.  Good for him.

But I thought the key line was right here:

Jon Kitna's arm strength is the most obvious reason he's a significant upgrade for the Cowboys at backup quarterback. Unlike Brad Johnson, Kitna can still put plenty of zip on his passes.

True, but the guy is missing the point.   Let me rewrite that paragraph:

Jon Kitna's experience is the most obvious reason he's an upgrade for the Cowboys at starting quarterback.  Unlike Tony Romo, Kitna can still complete plenty of passes to receivers that nobody has heard of.

And that's what it all comes down to.  This year Tony Romo doesn't have Terrell Owens.  He has Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin.  Yeah, Miles Austin, he'll get the job done.  How will Romo do with that group?  My bet is not that well.  How would Jon Kitna do?  Well, he has experience with Roy Williams and he helped make a bunch of unknowns (guys like Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey) into legitimate fantasy stars.  Kitna put up massive numbers with less talent than they have in Dallas.  MIUCH less talent.

Which brings me to my real point -- I don't know if starting Kitna would win the Cowboys any more games, but it would sure be better for fantasy football players.  Give Jon Kitna a solid running game, a good offensive line and Roy Williams, and he'll throw for 4000 yards.  I'm sure of it.   Give Tony Romo the same things, and he throws for 15-20% fewer yards.

This might seem mercenary to Cowboy fans, but I don't care.  I want to see great fantasy production out of the Dallas passing offense and I think Jon Kitna is the one to deliver it.  Do it Dallas, bench Romo and start Kitna.  You won't regret it. 

Well, I won't regret it.

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

Drew Brees tops my pre-season fantasy QB rankings. (AP Photo/Bill Haber, File)

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Everybody loves fantasy rankings and now that we're at the MLB All-Star Break (just work with me here), I figure it's time to bring out the preseason rankings.  These are based on my thoughts right now -- naturally, a lot will change between now and that first kickoff.

Trust me, it looks better on her.

View full size photo uploaded June 28, 2009

Can't get enough NFL stuff?  Does your wife look like your brother Earl wearing all your manly NFL stuff?  Need a great baby shower gift?  Well then, Reebok has the thing for you!

Reebok International will launch maternity T-shirts next year targeting moms-to-be who are NFL fans.

The short- and long-sleeved cotton shirts, available with the logos of every NFL team, will feature graphics such as "Rookie," "#1 NFL Draft Pick 2030," "Mom’s Tiny Kicker" and "Fan Pending."

Well, that's great.  The spokeswoman for this product will be Elizabeth "Wife of Tim" Hasselbeck, but I think the NFL really missed an opportunity by not having Tom Brady endorse this.  Think of the possibilities

"Hi, I'm Tom Brady.  I've impregnated enough women to know that when they get all big and huge, they feel kind of bad.  Make them feel better with this great NFL maternity shirt!  It's got a logo and everything on it!"

I'm telling you, I should be in marketing.

The Terrell Owens trade had me thinking about the Cowboys.  It seems pretty clear that the loss of T.O. will hurt Tony Romo's fantasy value.  Dallas may still bring in another high-end WR, but even so it will be tough for Romo to replace the WR1 he has worked with for the past three years. 

Then I thought: what if it's more than just a loss of a WR?  What if it's bigger than that?

So it's time for Episode Four of...

Skeller's Big Fantasy Football Questions

QUESTION #4 : Did Terrell Owens Make Tony Romo A Star?

Players Heavily Affected: QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams.

Terrell Owens joined the Cowboys before the start of the 2006 season.  Tony Romo became a starter during the 2006 season.  Before that, Romo was just an unknown backup from Eastern Illinois.  There have been some very good QBs from little schools -- two current examples that spring to mind are Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa) and Joe Flacco (Delaware) -- but that's the exception rather than the rule.  Usually, you don't see a successful QB come from anywhere other than BCS-conference schools.  So...Eastern Illinois?  Really? How'd that happen?  Let's take a look at Romo's career:

2006 - Replaces an ineffective Drew Bledsoe mid-game in Week 7 but the Cowboys lose to the Giants and fall to 3-3.  Romo takes over as the starter the following week and goes 6-4 the rest of the season.  Becomes a star for a 5 TD game against Tampa, but throws eight INTs vs six TDs in December. 

Final Stats: 2903 yds, 19 TD, 13 INT  (2008 Equivalent: Kyle Orton)

2007 - Julius Jones and Marion Barber find their groove and everything is clicking for the Cowboys' offense.  Romo becomes a fantasy stud and Dallas streaks to a 13-3 season.  Romo throws more INTs than TDs in December for the second straight year though.

Final Stats: 4211 yds, 36 TD, 19 INT (2008 Equivalent: Phillip Rivers)

2008 - Julius Jones has left to Seattle and the passing game starts to sputter.  He misses three games to injury and doesn't seem to be quite the same quarterback after his return.  Throws more INTs than TDs in December yet again.

Final Stats: 3448 yds, 26 TD, 14 INT (2008 Equivalent: Donovan McNabb)

Keep in mind that Tony Romo has had only ONE GAME as a starter without Terrell Owens in the lineup.  His entire career as a starting quarterback has included a future Hall of Famer as his WR1.  That's a big, big way to start your career.   Now that future Hall of Famer is gone and I think there's a chance that he's going to be exposed this season as a good-but-not-close-to-great fantasy quarterback.  If you need a canary in the coal mine (an underrated song by The Police, by the way), his completion percentage has dropped each of the last two seasons.

I think Romo really struggles this year trying to throw the ball to Jason Witten and some other guys he's never needed to remember the names of before now.   In fact, you could argue that backup Jon Kitna might be a better choice.  But that's for another post...

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Is he the next Brett What's-His-Name? (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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Aaron Rodgers is regularly ranked in the Top 5 of FFL draft rankings.  Pretty impressive for a guy with only 16 career starts.  Is he really ready to become an elite fantasy QB?  Or is he a flash in the pan?  I debate myself to find out


PRO: Rodgers threw for over 4000 yards in what was essentially his rookie year.  He’s ready to become one of the best QBs in fantasy football.  Four Thousand Yards!  How can you argue with that?


CON: The numbers were nice, but there’s no way he can repeat them for one very important reason.


PRO:  What’s that?


CON: The Packers offense stinks!  Well, maybe not stinks, but it’s certainly worse than last year.  Ryan Grant flamed out and Donald Driver has to start showing his age.  Where are the weapons?


PRO:  Driver had over 1000 yards last season.  Oh yeah, and Greg Jennings is one of the best WRs in the league!  Did you forget about him?


CON: No, I didn’t forget but Jennings can’t do it alone .  Who did the Packers add to their offense?  Anybody?  No.


PRO:  Well, they drafted fullback Quinn Johnson.


CON: Oh yeah, he’s change we can believe in.  The Packers scored 26 points a game last season and they’re going to do the same thing with the same people this year.  Where do you see the improvement coming from? Rodgers is going to throw MORE than last season?!  I don’t think that’s possible.


PRO:  The change will come with the improved running game.  Ryan Grant is ready to go this season. Last season was a fluke.


CON:  No way.  Teams have seen Green Bay is one-dimensional.  They’re going to double-team Jennings and make Rodgers find other targets.  Except that there aren’t any other targets.  Where’s Mark Chmura when you need him.


PRO:  I’m afraid to ask where he is.  Look, Rodgers’ development is impressive.  He had 2 or more TD passes in six of his last seven games.  The Packers will need to throw and they’re going to throw.  A lot.  To a lot of people.  He’s going to throw for a LOT of yards. Again.


CON:  That won’t be enough.  The Vikings have added Percy Harvin, not to mention old what’s-his-name at QB.   The Bears added Jay Cutler.  Matt Stafford is a huge QB upgrade in Detroit.  You can point to an improvement in the passing game for every team in the division – except the Packers.  


PRO: Rodgers IS the improvement.  He is the team, he is the offense.  They’ll be playing from behind for most of the season and that means another season of bombs downfield.  Look, I agree that it’s not great football – the Pack might lose 13 games – but it will be good fantasy football.


CON:  I’m not buying it.  I can see Rodgers as a Top 3 fantasy QB in a few years, once he gets some more talent around him.  For now, he’s the second coming of Jon Kitna.


PRO:  You could do worse.


CON: True, but you could also do better.