Former UFC middleweight title challenger Yushin Okami will look to rebound from his loss to Anderson Silva by handing Tim Boetsch his first ever middleweight defeat. For his part, Boetsch knows that a victory over the #3 middleweight in the world will lend instant credibility to his 2-0 record since making the drop from light heavyweight.

Yushin Okami

Okami is the most-tenured Japanese fighter on the current UFC roster, with nearly half of his 32-fight career having taken place in the UFC since joining in in 2006. With just three losses in his UFC career, to champion Anderson Silva and in a pair of #1 contender bouts, Okami is one of the best there is at 185 pounds.

Recent Fights

After twice having fallen in bouts which would have earned a shot at Anderson Silva's belt, first dropping a decision to former champion Rich Franklin then again coming up short against Chael Sonnen, Okami finally got over the bar and earned his shot at the title. A TKO of Lucio Linhares was followed up by decisions over Mark Munoz and Nate Marquardt, setting up a rematch with Silva, who Okami holds a win over from a Rumble on the Rock bout when Silva was disqualified for head kicking Okami while the Japanese fighter was in his guard. The rematch also ended with Okami battered and unable to defend himself, and unfortunately for Okami the blows were all legal this time.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Okami's style inside the cage is not always the most crowd-pleasing, but he remains one of the most effective fighters in the sport at forcing his game plan onto an opponent. Although his striking at range has improved, and he should hold an edge in this fight in that phase, it remains the weakest aspect of his game. Where Okami prefers to be is in tight. He has good offense from in the clinch, with both strikes and throws, and once on the mat he possesses a smothering top game which he uses to earn TKO's or dominant decisions.

Fantasy Impact

Okami is giving a +2 underdog bonus to his opponent in fantasy picking, which is usually the surest sign that you want to be picking somebody to win a fight. Okami has a much more proven record at the upper end of the sport, and should take the bout comfortably. The question becomes whether or not Okami can finish Boetsch, and while he has struggled with being decision-heavy in his UFC career, he has also spent much of it against top-end opposition, and this bout seems like another chance like the Linhares fight to pick up a TKO win in the middle frame.

Tim Boetsch analysis after the jump.

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The third bout on Saturday's fight-packed UFC 144 broadcast features two fighters on losing streaks at the hands of some of the UFC's best fighters as Jake Shields fights Yoshihiro Akiyama. For the winner another shot at a fringe top-ten fighter likely awaits, while the loser may well find himself out of a job.

Yoshihiro Akiyama

Akiyama's addition to the UFC's middleweight division was met with great anticipation by fight fans, as Sexyama was considered to be one of the best fighters outside of the world's top promotion. Since moving over to the UFCAkiyama has struggled greatly, though has curiously seemed to fail upward in prior bouts, seeing a steady improvement of opponent ranking in each of his prior four bouts.

Recent Fights

Akiyama entered the UFC on a three fight winning streak, which followed a string of three fights in which he saw both a win and a loss turned into no contests as a result of illegal actions. For his debut fight Akiyama took on Alan Belcher as a strong favorite. Akiyama struggled with the American, however, escaping with a contentious split decision. In his next bout Akiyama faded late in a fight with Chris Leben, getting submitted by a triangle choke, then was paired with Michael Bisping where he dropped a unanimous decision. Riding a two fight losing streak, Akiyama was still paired up with Vitor Belfort, who one fight prior was vying for the UFC middleweight title. Belfort made short work of Akiyama, handing Akiyama his third straight loss and prompting a drop in weight.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Akiyama has struggled to truly establish his winning style for the upper level of the sport since signing with the UFC. On both the feet and on the mat Akiyama is a serviceable opponent, and has multiple finishes by both TKO and by submission, however his UFC tenure has been marked by two large problems -- lack of potency in his attack and woeful cardio issues. Although Akiyama showed toughness in his bouts prior to the Belfort fight, continuing to press forward through brutal fights, the proven ability to press on necessitates that your style has also left you open to taking a lot of damage. Taking punishment can also be one of the most draining aspects of the sport, and accordingly Akiyama has shown a trend of fights getting progressively harder for him as the fight drags on into the later rounds.

Fantasy Impact

Akiyama is the big betting underdog, and also carries with him a +2 bonus for successfully picking him in the pick 'em game. This is with good reason. Although Shields himself is a flawed fighter, the holes in Akiyama's game match up dangerously with Shields' strengths. If Akiyama is to win it will likely be with an early knockout, however you are better suited staying away altogether, as it is more likely that Akiyama fails to put Shields away and, when the fight grinds on and Akiyama wears out, he finds himself on the wrong side of Shields' top game.

Jake Shields analysis after the jump.

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The second bout of the UFC 144 broadcast may well see the featherweight division's new #1 contender crowned as world #2 featherweight Hatsu Hioko takes on Bart Palszewski. The Japanese crowd will be hoping to see Hioki earn a shot at his third major featherweight title, while the seasoned veteran Palaszewski tries to play spoiler.

Hatsu Hioki

The addition of Hioki to the UFC's featherweight division was one of the most anticipated signings of 2011, as it brought over the highest ranked fighter who was previously outside of the Zuffa umbrella. With a great deal of hype comes high expectations, however, and as one of the UFC's most recognizable faces in Japanese fighting the pressure will be extra high in the UFC's return to Asia.

Recent Fights

Hioki is on a five-fight winning streak since suffering a loss to Michihiro Omigawa, going uneaten in that time frame. The run has seen Hioki win the two biggest featherweight crowns in Japan, first claiming the Shooto title and then the Sengoku strap, and now needs only the biggest prize of them all, the UFC featherweight title, to complete his collection. Hioki's UFC debut came against George Roop, and while Hioki was the prohibitive favorite coming in, Roop gave Hioki everything he had leaving the Japanese fighter to barely escape with a split decision victory.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Although neither fighter is incapable in their less-favored area of work inside the cage, this fight will likely break down into a style-vs-style pairing as the fight wears on. Although sound on the feet, Hioki is on a different level on the mat, where he has racked up a dozen submission victories in his career. Hioki is aggressive on the mat and won't stop hunting for the opening to improve his position or snatch a limb from Palaszewski if the American fighter gets caught out of position.

Fantasy Impact

Despite an unexpectedly difficult debut in the UFC, Hioki is still a strong favorite in this bout. The fantasy odds beg to differ, however, with the Japanese fighter available for just -120. Place a straight bet on Hioki for a relatively safe but modest return, and include the submission fighter in your parlay. Although a submission is possible, Palaszewski has been submitted just once in the past seven years and that was a technical stoppage which he disputed, so go with Hioki to positionally earn a unanimous decision.

Bart Palaszewski analysis after the jump.

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Saturday's UFC 144 broadcast features a modern record of seven scheduled fights on the Pay Per View portion of the card. While most of the bouts on the main card feature Japanese fighters or combatants who made their name in the PRIDE FC organization, the card is bookended by a pair of lightweight scraps with no ties to Japan, but which promise nothing if not high-intensity action. Kicking off the card is a bout between Anthony Pettis and Joe Lauzon which, along with the night's main event and a May bout between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz, will likely decide the next UFC lightweight title fight.

Joe Lauzon

Lauzon emerged on the scene with a splash as he was plucked from obscurity to take on former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver in Pulver's return to the UFC. Expected to be an easy re-entry bout for Pulver, Lauzon stunned fans by taking less than a minute to knock Pulver out. From there Lauzon moved on to The Ultimate Fighter 5 cast where he was a season favorite, only to fall in the semifinals to Manny Gamburyan. Since the show, Lauzon has maintained an exciting fighting style which has made him a fan favorite.

Recent Fights

Lauzon's past six fights have ended with the Massachusetts native leaving with some extra of-the-night change in his pocket, either in the form of a fight bonus for a loss or a submission bonus for a win. After submitting Jeremy Stephens with an armbar as the main event of UFC Fight Night 17 Lauzon was out of the Octagon for nearly a year with a knee injury. After a strong start in his return bout, Lauzon wilted late in losing a decision to Sam Stout. After thrashing Gabe Ruediger with another armbar, Lauzon again fell after a strong start, this time by TKO to George Sotiropoulos. Another quick win over Curt Warburton earned a shot against Melvin Guillard where Lauzon was a heavy underdog, but Lauzon dropped Guillard early and quickly took the back of the favorite and sunk in a fight-ending rear naked choke.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Lauzon's bread and butter is his grappling game and the pace with which he brings it early in a fight. Lauzon has a go-go-go style on the mat, constantly working to improve his position, rain down damage to soften up defenses or latch on a submission, which he then chains effortlessly until opponents are overwhelmed and succumb. While he is not the most technical striker, he fights with a similar high pace early, and as shown against Guillard and Pulver, Lauzon packs some power when he lands. Unfortunately for Lauzon, his fast pace is also his biggest weakness. In the past three years, Lauzon is 4-0 in fights lasting 2:01 or less, and just 1-3 in fights extending beyond the 2:01 mark, with a similar pattern in all three defeats of Lauzon taking the early stages of the fight, only to tire out and be battered for the remainder of the bout.

Fantasy Impact

Lauzon goes off as a bigger underdog on MMA Playground's betting game than in any major online book, and at +235 is an appealing option as a straight play who is not wrongly an underdog, but is still undervalued and as such worth a look. For straight picking there is also an added appeal that, if Lauzon is to win, you can be fairly confident of the method. His strength in submissions and weakness in cardio means that if you hit on the 5 points for picking the right fighter, there's a good chance you will get at least a bonus 3 for either round or method, and likely the full 11 point score for a perfect selection. In eight wins, picking Lauzon by round one submission would be good for at least 8 points in all but one bout, and hit a full bingo four times for 73 of a possible 88 points (83-percent of possible points.)

Anthony Pettis analysis after the jump.

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With the recent announcement that Nick Diaz had failed a post-fight drug test at UFC 143, and already important UFC on Fuel was just given even more weight. With Diaz on the sideline and GSP’s knee injury suddenly feeling a lot worse as soon as a he lost the chance to fight Diaz, the need for an interim title defense by champion Carlos Condit has grown, and the winner of this fight may well find himself in prime position to be the man to challenge for the strap.

Jake Ellenberger

Ellenberger is a veteran of the IFL, Bodog and Bellator prior to signing on with the UFC, and despite clawing his way into the top ten has remained outside of discussions for fighters at the top of the division looking for a title shot. With his only loss in his last ten coming by way of a split decision to newly crowned interim welterweight champion Condit, adding another big name to his trophy case could be just what Ellenberger needs.

Recent Fights

Since the split decision loss to Condit, Ellenberger has won five straight fights in 2010 and 2011, failing to get the finish only once. Ellenberger stopped Mike Pyle in the second round in his first bounce-back fight, then blew up John Howard’s eye like a beach ball to force the doctor’s hand. Carlos Eduardo Rocha’s tricky ground game offered some threat to Ellenberger, but the American showed equally game escapes and punished his way to a split decision win. Ellenberger began voicing his wish to take on a big name, but was forced to settle for a bout with Sean Pierson at UFC 129, where a quick KO there set up a fight with Jake Shields. Shields was dismissive of Ellenberger before the fight, but certainly not after when Ellenberger needed just :53 seconds to claim the undisputed Jake Welterweight Championship Title.

Strengths and Weaknesses

As is a popular trend on this fight card, Ellenberger is a wrestler who often prefers to use his pedigree to keep the fight upright, rather than to set up opportunities to hammer away from on top. Ellenberger is a technically sound striker and he hits with great power. What’s more, Ellenberger is effective both at range and in tight, making any time on the feet with him a dangerous proposition. Where Ellenberger is most likely to be in trouble with Sanchez is if the Jackson MMA fighter manages to put him on his back, however Ellenberger’s wrestling should be strong enough to prevent that.

Fantasy Impact

Ellenberger is providing some of the best value on the card, with a -250 line despite sports books favoring Ellenberger as high as -400. For players with a high bankroll, invest some safe money in Ellenberger for solid return, while players looking for big scores should consider Ellenberger with a pair of moderate dogs in a parlay. For fantasy picking, Sanchez is durable but the end seems inevitable, so take Ellenberger by TKO in round two.

Diego Sanchez analysis after the jump.

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The night's co-main event is a heavyweight scrap between Stefan Struve and Dave "Peewee" Herman. Just a few years ago both were considered bright prospects in the always-thin heavyweight division, and while Struve has fallen against top tier competition, Herman remains untested at the top of the sport, and will look to catapult from this win into just such a test.

Stefan Struve

Struve is the tallest fighter in the UFC, and after debuting just two days after his 21^st birthday was one of the youngest debuting fighters ever in the promotion. Struve’s relatively-slight build for a heavyweight, combined with his long limbs, makes a unique match-up for any opponent he is paired with.

Recent Fights

Struve is on an impressive 6-2 run in the UFC since dropping his debut to Junior Dos Santos, however the Dutch giant has been unable to string together a long chain of victories in his UFC tenure to-date. His three fight winning streak was snapped by a Roy Nelson TKO, and after scoring TKO wins over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle, Struve was again stopped early, this time by Travis Browne. Struve managed to avoid his first ever consecutive losses by trading blows in a tight first round against Pat Barry, then locking on a fight-ending triangle and surviving a Barry slam which only tightened the hold in the second round.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The long and relatively-lean frame of Struve provides both his greatest strengths and weaknesses inside the cage. On the mat Struve’s long limbs make it easier for him to catch opponents with submissions, and he has finished half his wins with taps. His reach allows Struve to keep opponents on the outside of their own range when Struve is properly working his jab and straight punches. On the other hand, when opponents are able to get inside on Struve, he is often outmuscled and able to be battered by tight punches, which cost Struve dearly in losses to Nelson and dos Santos, and nearly did in his bout with Paul Buentello.

Fantasy Impact

I strongly dislike this match-up for Struve. While Herman didn’t dazzle in his debut, he doesn’t have a history of breaking easily, and has lots of power in his hands which makes me doubtful Struve can last 15 minutes against him. If Struve is to win, it will likely come by way of an early submission so take him in round one with the tap. In fantasy betting Struve is a +100, slightly less payoff than the Vegas books, and I’d advise against playing on the Dutchman in any form.

Dave Herman analysis after the jump.

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The third bout on the UFC on Fuel debut show is an old-school style vs. style pairing, as a pair of undefeated heavyweights throw down. Who will come out on top, the golden gloves boxer with a wrestling pedigree, Stipe Miocic, or the submission-savvy Phil de Fries?

Stipe Miocic

Miocic is an undefeated prospect who has shown a great deal of finishing ability, which means in a sparse division like heavyweight is only a few strong showings away from finding himself at the top of the division. With a chance on the main card, even on a Fuel show, Miocic is being given the opportunity to take another step along that path.

Recent Fights

Miocic began his career with a run of five consecutive knockout victories, three of which came in the first round and all which were finished within the opening seven minutes of the bout. Miocic's sixth win, his fifth under the NAAFS banner, came by way of a submission, but given that submission was a result of his opponent deciding "enough of this crap," when Miocic insisted on repeatedly kicking him in the leg, it was yet another example of his dangerous stand-up. For his octagon debut Miocic faced off with the durable Joey Beltran and after a brutal fifteen minute slugfest had his hand raised for a unanimous decision victory.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Miocic is a fighter who employs the old school wrestle boxing style of fighting. A former Division-I wrestler, Miocic was nationally ranked during his time at Cleveland State. In addition to his wrestling, Miocic is a golden gloves boxer, and as a result likes to employ his wrestling defensively, forcing his opponents to stay on the feet where Miocic is more than happy and capable of dealing devastating offense. Against Beltran, however, he also showed he could mix in offensive wrestling if the fight merits it, though against de Fries this is unlikely. Miocic's submission defense has not been tested in his career, however, and facing a strong submission grappler he will likely be hoping his wrestling is strong enough that the same can be said after the fight as well.

Fantasy Impact

If Miocic is able to keep this fight on the feet for any extended period of time, it's going to be lights out for de Fries. Count on Miocic's wrestling to be superior and take Miocic to win by a first round knock out of de Fries. On the fantasy betting side, Miocic is a -240. while the line is much better than what the sports books offer, unless you already have a massive roll at mid-season and are looking for steady growth, you're unlikely to be pouring much money into a -240 fighter due to the "go big or go home" nature of fantasy betting in a season format.

Philip de Fries analysis after the jump.

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With UFC 143 in the books, it's time for a self-assessment of the fight picks-both good and bad. All in all, UFC 143 was a solid night of fights. The betting favorites won 10 of 11 fights, with Carlos Condit being the only underdog to win, so a good set of fantasy picks had to hit on the round and method.

Biggest Hit
11-Dustin Poirier-Sub-1

Poirier was the most obvious pick at UFC 143, with 98% of fans at Sherdog picking him, and he notched his 4^th straight UFC win against Max Holloway, a 20-year old opponent fighting on short notice. Poirier picked up "Submission of the Night" for his mounted triangle and armbar win. Up next for Dustin Poirier is a main event fight on UFC on Fuel 3 this May against "the Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung.

Worst Miss
5-Nick Diaz-Dec-5

Diaz lost a close fight in the main event. Rounds 1 and 2 were relatively close, and in round 5 Diaz had back control and was threatening with moderate submission attempts. Given the flaky standards of MMA judges, it was surprising this fight was not a split-decision. During the week, it looked like a rematch was in the works, until it came out on Thursday that Diaz failed a drug test. From here, Diaz is likely facing a one-year suspension. With two consecutive pay-per-view main events under his belt, Diaz is somewhat an asset to the UFC so he may not get cut.

Perfect Picks
9-Josh Koscheck-Dec-3

Josh Koscheck won a narrow split-decision over Mike Pierce, and he now has 15 UFC wins. Koscheck is a proven commodity in the UFC, and he can expect a top-tier welterweight in his next fight, perhaps Johny Hendricks or the winner of tilt between Martin Kampmann and Thiago Alves in Australia next month.

6-Renan Barao-Dec-3

Barao continues to steamroll the 135 pounders he fights in the UFC. While some think he deserves a title shot, with five months until Cruz and Faber, it is likely Barao gets another televised fight this spring or summer to truly establish him as a #1 contender.

3-Fabricio Werdum-Dec-3

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/2986688/roy_nelson_large_large.jpg

Werdum and Nelson was the most closely picked fight at UFC 143 as fight fans picked it down the middle 50-50. In hindsight, half of UFC fans were overrating Roy Nelson, as Nelson took an inhumane beating. Nelson's face was rearranged, see the picture here:

Next up for Werdum is probably the winner of Kongo-Hunt or perhaps he fights a warm body on the same card as Mir-Velasquez, so Werdum can pinch-hit if need be in a higher profile heavyweight colission.
More after the jump

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