Fantasy Football Offensive Evaluation
Fantasy Football in Review: The AFC North
Before the season I previewed all 32 teams for fantasy purposes. Proof is here.
The Baltimore Ravens lost a heart-breaker yesterday and failed to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2000. They've had their chances, but another missed opportunity leaves one less year in the Ray Lewis-Ed Reed window to win a championship.
The NFC North sent three teams to the playoffs, including the surprise Bengals. The division is much more about defense than offense, with even the Browns fielding a respectable D. There are a few top notch fantasy performers in the division though, and this is how I saw them pre-season:
The Baltimore Ravens
What I Said: He's started every game for the Ravens in the 3 years since he was drafted, and won at least one playoff game each season. He's gradually improved each year and had 25 TD/10 INT last year with a 93.6 QB rating.
What He Did: Flacco had the worst season of his career, but still won a playoff game for the fourth straight season. He posted 57.6% completions, 3,610 yards, 20 TD/12 INT and a 80.9 QB rating. The TD/INT ratio is okay, but he doesn't complete enough passes to be considered much of a QB1 in fantasy. His 6.7 yards per attempt is pretty low on the "starting QB" spectrum and he can't make the excuse that he has no weapons. Baltimore has some weapons now. He needs to get better in year five or he might need to find another place to play.
What I Said: I think Rice is capable of big things in 2011. I like Rice for 90 yards per game rushing, 70 catches, 10-15 touchdowns, and a few really big games that could carry you to a victory all by himself. He's a first round pick in my book for sure.
What He Did: Rice had his best season to date. 1,364 yards (85 per game), 76 catches, 15 total touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry. He's a #1 RB and an easy first round pick next year again.
Fantasy Football in Review: The AFC South
Before the season, I previewed all 32 NFL teams. Proof here.
There were some interesting storylines in the AFC South this year: The Texans won their first division title, made their first playoff appearance, and won their first playoff game. Peyton Manning missed the season and the Colts wound up with the #1 pick. Blaine Gabbert actually started 14 games. Jake Locker did not. Chris Johnson was the bust of all busts. Maurice Jones-Drew won the rushing title.
Here's what I said about every player before the year, and how they ended up doing.
Indianapolis Colts
Peyton Manning
What I Said: Even at 34, and with a neck injury, Manning hasn't missed a game in his career and I wouldn't expect him to start now. It's the consistency, the talent, the brains, and the weapons around him that still makes Manning the #2 QB in the league to me behind Brady. He just makes me feel safe. I like to feel safe.
What He Did: This was written a few weeks before the season started and we all know what happened. He made it so that I'll never feel safe again.
What I Said: Addai has been in running back by committee ever since and he's averaged 53 yards per game combined over the last 3 seasons. That won't change this year, and with Addai returning from injury, I wouldn't touch him in the draft unless he slipped considerably.
What He Did: With 3 players nearly splitting carries evenly, Addai had 433 yards, 3.7 YPC, and 1 TD. Not draftable.
What I Said: Of course, it is possible on some level which is why Brown will get drafted, but why he's a late round pick for me. He's a 2009 first round pick who tore up the Jaguars last season, but did poorly in almost every other game.
What He Did: Brown led the team in carries and had 645 yards, 5 TD, and 4.8 YPC. He's a good sleeper next season in an improved (assuming) offense.
Fantasy Football in Review: AFC West
Before the year I previewed all 32 teams. Check here to see them all right now if you're bored... It only took me about 50 hours to complete.
How were my predictions? Let's see how I did in the worst(?) division in football.
Kansas City Chiefs
What I Said: He's not as exciting as some other, higher-ceiling QBs, but he's usually pretty efficient. This season will be a real test for him though considering the much tougher schedule. He also has a new weapon at WR, which might or might not be a difference maker.
What He Did: Injuries caused Cassel to only play in 9 games this year and he completed 59.5% of his passes for 1,713 yards, 10 TD/9 INT. This was more of the Cassel I was expecting, but it didn't help not having a good line or a running game behind him. I'm not sure what the future holds for him, but the Chiefs should find a better backup than Tyler Palko (2 TD/7 INT)
What I Said: Charles won't average 6.4 yards per carry, but he could duplicate his success in terms of yardage and score a few more TDs, but I'm always a little wary of a guy going from backup to "star" now that defenses are keyed on him and the pressure is mounting. He's not going to slip past 5 in any fantasy drafts I know of, and that may be fair, but I do think its tiny bit risky. (Again, remember Larry Johnson?)
What He Did: He missed 99% of the season. I wasn't huge on Charles, but I thought he'd have a fine year. It's tough to come back from an ACL injury like that.
What I Said: Sort of sounds like the name of a female character in a new Street Fighter game. Jackie Battle, hyruken! But other than that, not much to see here.
What He Did: He played like Dhalsim... he's fine for what he is. 597 yards, 4 yards per carry, and 2 TDs.
What I Said: McCluster left some to be desired last season, but he was only a rookie and there's PLENTY of time for him to grow into perhaps one of the best playmakers in the NFL. He's a good sleeper, but hard to say when the breakout is really going to happen.
What He Did: When Charles went down I thought this might finally be McCluster's time to shine, but he had 516 yards rushing, 328 yards receiving, and 2 total touchdowns. His 4.5 yards per carry is good, but he's not an every down back. There's still time to grow and get better, he's only 22.
Fantasy Football in Review: The NFC East
Before the season I did long series of predictions of every team and every important player that we knew about at the time. Here is how I did predicting the NFC East.
Check out all 32 articles here to make sure I'm not lying.
Dallas Cowboys
What I Said: As far as fantasy, Romo is being drafted around the 4th or 5th round, 1 round ahead of Matt Ryan and 2 rounds ahead of Matt Schaub. I wouldn't pass on a good running back or wide receiver in the 4th if I could grab Schaub in the 6th, but Romo should have a very good season and it won't hurt you to have him as your starting QB.
What He Did: The Cowboys wasted another good season on inconsistency and costly mistakes. Stop me if you've heard this before: Dallas loses four of their last five games and misses the playoffs. Dear Romo, you have GOT to win in December and January. I don't care what your numbers say... this is Dallas.
Otherwise, Tony was excellent in fantasy: 66.3% completions, 4,184 yards, 31 TD/10 INT, 102.5 QB rating. He had a career year on the stat sheet, but the Cowboys are home early again.
What I Said: I expect him to rush for over 1,100 yards and gain at least another 500 yards in the air in 2011, and I believe he'll be able to get in the 10 TD range at least, with Barber gone. He's currently going 22nd among running backs, which I think makes him a steal. He's an above average RB2, but he'd make one hell of a flex position play.
What He Did: Owners were very high on Jones, but failed production early and injuries opened the door for DeMarco Murray until injuries to him opened the door for Jones. He finished with 575 yards rushing, 221 yards receiving, and 2 TDs in 12 games. Jones has nine career touchdowns... He did rush for 214 yards during a two game stretch in December.
Fantasy Football in Review: The NFC South
Before the season I did long series of predictions of every team and every important player that we knew about at the time. Here is how I did, starting with the NFC West:
Check out all 32 articles here to make sure I'm not lying. The link to my articles for each team is linked to the team name headers...
New Orleans Saints
What I Said: Brees threw a career high 22 interceptions last season, but also had a career high in attempts, completions and led the NFL in completion percentage. He had a very similar season in 2007, then followed that up with a 5,000 yard season in 2008. Don't put it past Brees to put up MVP-caliber numbers if his wide receivers and favorite tight end can stay healthy all season
What He Did: Brees set career-highs in yards, completion percentage, completions, touchdowns, and QB rating. His 5,476 yards were an NFL record. If it wasn't for Aaron Rodgers having an incredible season while the Packers went 15-1, Brees would be a lock for the MVP and even then it wouldn't be a huge upset if Brees took it home.
What I Said: It's a risk to make him your RB2, but the reward could be that he's a RB1 right out of the gates. Many running backs to peak early. I'll put him at around 1,000 yards and 6 scores. He does have PPR value as well.
What He Did: Ingram led the Saints in attempts despite only playing in 10 games, but he only gained 474 yards and caught only 11 passes with 5 TDs. The Saints had quite the committee going on in the backfield and Sproles ended up doing the most damage. Ingram only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, but he could be a nice sleeper next season.
What I Said: Thomas has a knack for putting up big games, especially in PPR leagues, but at this time he's not reliable as an every week starter. Especially with Ingram in the fold. He'll get his carries, but you have to pick your spots with Thomas.
What He Did: He was much more effective than Ingram and averaged 5.1 yards per carry, ran for 562 yards, and caught a career-high 50 passes. He also scored six touchdowns.
What I Said: Don't be fooled by the fact that Sproles really is one of the most exciting players in the NFL. He can break it off at any moment. But at 5'6, he won't get as many moments as your average NFL running back. He's got more value in return leagues and PPR leagues, but only in deep leagues.
What He Did: Well, Sproles ended up making me the fool. He only carried the ball 87 times but he ran for 603 yards and caught 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 TDs. He average 27 yards per kick return and 10.1 yards per punt return. He just put up the most all-purpose yards ever with 2,696.
What I Said: If healthy, he's a consistent fantasy stud, but the question is how many games he'll actually play in. He's a solid WR2, but wouldn't rely on him as your number one option.
What He Did: Colston stayed healthy and had a classic Colston season: 80 catches for 1,143 yards and 8 TDs.
Fantasy Football in Review: NFC West Predictions
Before the season I did long series of predictions of every team and every important player that we knew about at the time. Here is how I did, starting with the NFC West:
Check out all 32 articles here to make sure I'm not lying.
The Seattle Seahawks
What I Said: I predict that he could throw 20-22 TDs and 18-22 INTs, 3,000 yards, and 59% completion over a full season. He'll have a couple big games and a couple terrible ones mixed in with many underwhelming ones.
What Did He Do: T-Jack completed 60.2% of his passes for 14 TD/13 INT, 3,091 yards and 1 rushing TD. He missed one game and really only had 1 "big game" all year, throwing for 319 yards and 3 TDs against the Falcons. I was too high on his TDs and too high on his INTs but right on with the other numbers. Nobody expected Jackson to be good so he didn't disappoint anyone!
What I Said: If the offensive line is healthy and plays well, Lynch can get back to his rookie numbers: 1,100 yards and 7 TDs. If they aren't, he might only get 700-800 yards.
What Did He Do: Beast Mode had the best season of his career, rushing for 1,204 yards and 12 TDs but more importantly, he was one of the most consistent players in fantasy and scored a TD in 12 straight games. Also, he did it without a healthy offensive line, so in that sense I really underestimated Mr. Skittles.
Sidney Rice
What I Said: When healthy, Rice can be a good WR2 in fantasy, but he's also got to work with Jackson and a Seattle offense that could struggle. Keeping expectations low: 60 catches, 900 yards, 5 TDs. If all breaks right: 75 catches, 1,100 yards, 8 TDs.
What Did He Do: Rice played in 9 games and caught 32 passes for 484 yards and 2 TDs. (Really, it was eight games.) Injuries strike Rice once again. He had two 100 yard games and two other games with a TD, which does make him a solid WR2, but he was also inconsistent and struggled as Seattle's pass offense struggled. Next season, I would rate him very low. He just can't stay on the field.
Jump with me, won't you?
Fantasy Football: Reviewing Preseason Team Previews NFC North
Before the season began I spent many, many hours researching every player and then writing about it here on FakeTeams. What resulted was a "Fantasy Football Offensive Evaluation" series that covered all 32 teams.
It was an excellent way for me to recognize sleepers, guys I loved, and guy that I was quite wary of. I think it really helped me in preparing for my draft and staying ahead of the game when new names popped up on the waiver wires and so far I'm 3-2 in both of my super-competitive pay leagues with 2nd highest scoring totals in both. I hope that if you followed along on my team previews (as well as everything else here on the site) that you've had similar success.
I don't know if five weeks is too early to start looking back, but I don't see why it would be. By now you've got a pretty good idea of how your team is, and as every week passes it becomes less and less relevant because there will be less players popping up in free agency unless there's an unfortunate injury. Also, I'm not doing all of the reviews today or this week because last time I checked (2 seconds ago) there are eight divisions and I just don't have that kind of time. It's going to be a process.
This is just a good way for me to find out how good I did, and also because I went pretty deep on each offense, how many of those names became relevant. Starting with the NFC North:
(Note: Clicking on the team name headers will take you to my preview articles, not their team page)
Green Bay Packers
What I said about Aaron Rodgers:
He's been a top 3 fantasy QB each season and he's potentially only going to get better. Tom Brady was great, and then he exploded for a huge season. Peyton Manning was great, and then he exploded for a huge season. The Packers aren't a running team, so expect that one of these years Rodgers could throw 50 TDs. Really.
Even after becoming perhaps the most respected quarterback in the league after last years Super Bowl, I felt that Rodgers could still get better. A lot better. Manning and Brady each had a super season. So far this season Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes (14) completion percentage (71.7) and average yards per attempt (9.6) He is on pace for 47 touchdowns and is one of a handful of quarterbacks on pace to break Dan Marino's passing yardage record
Here are the rest...
Fantasy Football Offensive Evaluation: Green Bay Packers
The champ is here. Make way, make way, the champ is here.
It's true, the Packers find themselves with the Lombardi trophy once again. While not as dominant in football as the Yankees are in baseball, the Packers have long been thought of as one of true powerhouses of the NFL. Their return to the top was not paved with gold however.
Remember, this team was 8-6 after week 15. They squeaked into the playoffs with a modest 10-3 victory over the Bears in the final week of the season, but after three straight road playoff victories and a win over the Steelers in the Super Bowl, the Packers will be remembered as the best team in 2010.
Nobody can ever take that title away from them, but this team isn't without its flaws. The Packers finished 24th in the NFL in rushing yards and 10th in scoring. The "dominating" offense we perceive them to be isn't necessarily the case. Do they have the league's best QB, best TE, and a top 5 WR? Are they too thin on offensive line depth? Do the Packers have a running back worth owning?
Quarterback
If you're ever watching the NFL draft and start to feel sorry for a player who is slipping, remember Aaron Rodgers. There was speculation that he would go 1st overall in the 2005 NFL draft, but instead he slipped to 24th. He then sat for three full years behind Brett Favre. Now he's being talked about as the NFL's best quarterback, he's a Super Bowl champion, and he still hasn't turned 28 yet. Oh, and the millions of dollars. Let's not forget about the millions of dollars as to why you shouldn't feel sorry for NFL players.
In three years of play, Rodgers has completed 64.6% of his passes for an average of 4,131 yards, 29 TDs and 10 INTs for a 99.4 QB rating. He's been a top 3 fantasy QB each season and he's potentially only going to get better. Tom Brady was great, and then he exploded for a huge season. Peyton Manning was great, and then he exploded for a huge season. The Packers aren't a running team, so expect that one of these years Rodgers could throw 50 TDs. Really. I'd probably never use a first round pick on a QB, but he's certainly worthy of being the first QB drafted. If there is an area of concern, its that he led the NFL in sacks two years ago, then he had the concussion problems in 2010. Rodgers was sacked six times in the pre-season, and he barely played. The line has to do a better job of protecting the franchise. If all that goes well, 35-40 TDs isn't out of the question this year.
The rest after the jump...
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