by Dave Fuller

Injury Status:

Gilbert Arenas is reportedly "20-30" days from returning to the court for the Washington Wizards according to..well, himself. I think Agent Zero is to be trusted as he knows his own body better than anyone, and I haven't heard any conflicting reports from trainers. This also gives him somewhere in the vicinity of 20-30 regular season games to play. Perfect timing, and his legs should be relatively fresh from all the rest. Seems as though fantasy owners will receive a boost from their first-round pick in just a matter of weeks. If he's somehow available on the Waiver Wire, now's as good a time as any to snatch him up before someone else does. Once he gets his timing and game speed back, he'll be quite a force to contend with as usual.

KG remains out with abdominal issues, a problem which has sidelined him for five games already. It could continue to keep him sidelined past the All-Star break, so those who have watched their first-round (probably first overall pick) draft choice will have to suffer a few more weeks before Garnett is back to speed. This of course is merely speculation, but plan accordingly anyway. Besides, you can be grateful Garnett didn't pull a Gilbert Arenas; he has at least played a vast majority of the season. This could help KG owners in the same way as Arenas' issue, however: his legs should be fresh and healthy for some dominant play in the stretch run. He'll need to produce to keep the Pistons at bay.

Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon (am I missing any Bulls?), Gerald Wallace..all of the above are listed as questionable for their upcoming games. Various injuries have sidelined them, but none of these ailments are considered serious enough to keep them out for more than a week or two just to make sure parts are fully healed. Anticipate their returns within a handful of games or less.

Trade Talk:

If you saw either of these deals coming (I sure as heck didn't), I will be amazed. Pau Gasol was dealt to the Bynum-less Los Angeles Lakers, and LA gave up nothing. Not literally, but it might as well have been that way. The two first-round draft picks they surrendered to acquire the former Memphis big man will likely turn out to be late first rounders when they come to fruition, and the combo of rookie Javaris Crittenton and massive bust Kwame Brown does little to balance the deal out. All-in-all, the Lakers have quickly become one of the top three teams in the West with this deal (assuming Bynum comes back healthy) with an extremely legitimate shot at this year's title. They still have efficient PG Derek Fisher, and Gasol seems intelligent enough to adapt to Phil Jackson's triangle offense quickly. He'll have plenty of time to, anyway.

Then, the Pheonix Suns added some diesel to their fire by acquiring 35-year-old Shaquille O'Neal in exchange for Marcus Banks and Shawn Marion, both of whom are heading to the Heat. Even SportingNews.com commented on the deal as "one of the most unexpected in NBA history", and I'd be shocked if anyone knew otherwise. All Shaq will do to Pheonix is slow down their up-tempo game, much like Chris Webber did in his debut last night with Golden State. I'll get to that shortly. O'Neal simply does not have enough left in the tank to bring Pheonix to the promised land, and the lack of team defense on the Suns helps their case little. Losing fast-break and high-energy man Shawn Marion further hurts the chances of making it far into the postseason, and breaking up the chemistry of the team just exacerbates the problem of this deal. The Suns got worse. Perhaps a lot worse. As for Marion, his scoring should increase as the second option to Dwyane Wade in Miami. His turnovers, assists and field goal percentage will all get slightly worse, but will be somewhat off-set by the increased scoring and rebounding he's likely to achieve. Score one for Pat Riley, but this puzzling move is just a little too late.

Miscellaneous:

Chris Webber made his debut with the Golden State Warriors last night, starting in place of either Al Harrington or Matt Barnes (Nellie plays the match-up game every single night). Luckily the game was aired nationally on TNT, so I got to watch (nearly) all of it and see how Webber played. Of course, he was very much out of shape and his timing was off, but that will come when he's back to game speed. He'll bring passion, passing, and height to a Warriors team that desparately needs it (Joakim Noah had 10 off the bench in just under 15 minutes). Once he's putting in 20-25 minutes a night in relative game shape, he should contribute in the range of 10 points/5 rebounds/3 assists on average. He will slow down the Warriors similar to O'Neal's negative presence, but the rest of the team knows how to run and they could probably be fine with him straggling behind. If I had to predict, I'd say this is a move that just keeps them as the 8th seed in the West as the playoffs roll around. Houston, Portland, and Denver are playing well, but Golden State would need to remain focused and play their best basketball to grab the 7th spot by the end of the regular season.

Unfortunately, it might not matter. Los Angeles looks to be the clear favorites to win the Western Conference championship this season. I'll be happy if Golden State makes the 2nd round again.

by Dave Fuller

I'ts about time to try something new in these fantasy basketball articles to keep things fresh. You know how long this season can be, especially around the All-Star break. So, in this first ever installment of "The Rundown", I'll go over whatever's making noise around the NBA (and throw in some analysis when it pertains to the fantasy game). Oh, and by the way, that's supposed to read "foiled" but with Foye in it. Like, Randy Foye? Combo guard for the Timberwolves? Yeah, I always forget about them too.

Injury Status:
Sophomore combo guard Randy Foye made his long-awaited season debut Tuesday in the first game of a home-and-home against the Chicago Bulls. As expected, Foye only received limited minutes (17:43) as he works himself back into game shape. Why an NBA player ever needs to get more into "shape" I'll never know, but Foye should be back up to game speed soon after the break. If it takes Foye a few weeks to get back into shape, I don't know how long it would take me. I probably don't even want to know.

When that occurs (Foye, not me), expect numbers in the area of 42-44% from the floor, a 3 per game, above 80% shooting form the line, about 1 combined steal and/or block per game, and a respectable 11-12 points and 3-3.5 rebounds and assists each. Foye is likely to take over Marko Jaric's spot at the 2 with Sebastian Telfair continuing to play around 30 minutes a game. Jaric's numbers will obviously take a hit while Telfair's should stay reasonably similar. Foye has the potential to improve his all-around game at any point this season, so don't think it's out of the question for him to make up for lost time and give your team a boost at the guard position. Just don't expect much past what he did as a rookie last season.

PF/C Anderson Varejao is out for about four weeks, so PF Drew Gooden will see a spike in production while the Brazilian is sidelined. Looking at the respectable points and rebounding totals he put up while Varejao was out, you can expect him to at least come close to those numbers again. At least for the next few weeks.

Also, watch out for the flu bug. It's been spreading like wildfire, and is completely unpredictable. Just make sure you have ample back-up at your weaker positions so you never miss a step if your players are unfortunate enough to catch it this season.

Trade Rumors:
Mike Bibby's name hasn't come up in any serious talks yet, but as the trade deadline looms and various factors make Bibby expendable, it's safe to assume he'll be shipped somewhere. Yahoo's "NBA Rumors" page lists a few possible locations for Bibby, but let's take a look at how they'd impact your fantasy squad.

First off, Bibby to the Houston Rockets would be very beneficial for both sides. Kings former head coach Rick Adelman is running the show in Houston, so Bibby would become very comfortable with Adelman's scheme very quickly. This is likely the best possible fit for the long-time King, but likely wouldn't increase his numbers past his career averages. The Cavaliers are also pursuing Bibby, according to Yahoo!, but neither of the aforementioned teams have the assets to acquire a floor general of Bibby's caliber without gutting their trade chips. Would that be worth half a season of Bibby? He can terminate his contract early and enter free agency following the season, so any team attempting to acquire him will be bidding against themselves if they go after Mike.

Both the Cavs and the Rockets, however, realize that they must upgrade their current point guards (Larry Hughes and Rafer Alston, respectively) if they are to have any shot of going far in the playoffs (Cleveland) or even making the post-season (Houston). This is especially true now that LeBron James is starting to get hit with the injury bug. Neither deal (or staying put) would do much of anything for his fantasy value, though. Perhaps a slight scoring increase in Cleveland or a slight increase in dimes in Houston.

Miscellaneous:
Since the All-Star break begins in the middle of February (only a couple weeks away), I'll leave you with this tidbit from Rudy Gay to Dwight Howard (both Slam Dunk Contest participants):

"You have that idea about moving the goal to 12 feet? If you want to do it, go ahead and do it. I'm pretty confident in my jumping ability. If you go before me, I'll leave it up there and do my dunk."

If you're going to challenge the Man-Child, you better back it with a pretty solid performance. I don't know if taking a fan's YouTube submission will be enough to out-freak the freak, so let's hope Rudy Gay gives us (and Dwight) a performance to remember.

by Dave Fuller

Fantasy basketball is similar to Harper Lee's classic To Kill a Mockingbird in more ways than you might think. The word "scout" is involved, and you really have to understand the subtleties of the game to get the most out of it. Well, maybe you're smarter or more perceptive than me, and you can pull more connections out of the two than I can. If that's the case, you'll probably excel in what I'm going over today.

I'd like to think I fully understood TKaM last time I read it, but there will probably always be nuances between what Lee meant and what I get out of it. But then again, when doesn't that happen? Anyway, I face the same issues in fantasy basketball when I attempt to scout how players are developing or currently performing. I admit I'll probably never understand the things that allow professional scouts to project the careers of players coming out of the NCAA. And I don't expect to. Instead, I'll use what I've learned to get a sense of how well an NBA player will perform in the short term. Even there I'm no expert, but any information I can take out of the game is crucial to further develop my all-around fantasy game. The same goes for anyone who plays.

Let's look at Monta Ellis as an example to explain. Click through here to read one scout's take on career potential before he was drafted in 2005. Right away you can see they were a little off on their ranking of Ellis using their "Six-Star Rating System" based on what we've seen from him so far. After that, their take on his overall strengths and weaknesses is dead-on. From what I've seen (which they're also dead-on about), he has quickly developed into a big-time scorer, has a silky-smooth jumper with a fantastic stroke, and his all-around game really compliments his incredible understanding of the team dynamic. After last night's game vs. the Nets on TNT, I can also assure you his development and maturity growth has occurred stunningly quick. Ironic, that's exactly what Ellis is.

So, what can you or I take from this information? Quite a bit. Sure, Ellis isn't long like a Danny Granger or Kevin Durant, so it's not like you can easily project him to be a big blocks or steals guy. It's also difficult to project just how well he'll be able to adjust when it comes to scoring against bigger players (almost everyone in the league compared to him).

But since hind-sight is 20/20, we can see why his skills have developed to this level based on his scouting report. It doesn't mention how quick he is, but most scouting reports include details like that. Knowing this, it would have been easy to expect at least around a steal per game with good minutes solely because of his ability to out-run some defenders. The fact that they list his strengths as unselfishness, shooting, and an all-around game allow us to figure he should be able to get minutes due to the fact that he can play a team game at a level that deserves at least some minutes. They harp on his ability to shoot, so we have to assume he'll be able to at least be able to score from outside the paint when set up nicely. This could bring him low double-digit points, or even better if he can learn to create his own shot. His small size should logically inhibit him from posting big rebound totals, so there's another thing we can gather.

And really, even a relatively basic projection like that that you can compile by looking at others' scouting reports will be helpful. We can likely come to expect the "stats" we listed him as being able to put up, and know that everything else is gravy. Once he starts putting doing what we expected, you can put him on your radar to further witness his development. That's where personal scouting comes into play. With a player like Ellis, you can just tell he's escalating his game to such a level that he could garner All-Star considerations as early as next season or 2010. And he's only, what, 22?

Ellis has been gravy to every Warriors fan, but what becomes important are his fantasy contributions. Like I said, a combination of scouting reports can allow you to project his statistics for the short term, so that's what I'll do now based on what I know. Those who are into fantasy basketball should like these numbers, and they're the kind that should increase Ellis' value throughout the second half. Valuable information like this allows one to trade for a player before he truly explodes, thus increasing the profit margin. And this was just one simple example. There are truly endless possibilities, and it all starts with a little Scout.

Projected 2007-'08 2nd Half Statistics -- Monta Ellis :: PG/SG, Golden State Warriors
35.0+ min. | 20.0+ pts. | 50.0+% FG | 80.0+% FT | 0.2 3's. | 4.0+ reb. | 3.0+ ast. | 1.0+ stl. | 0.2 blk. | -2.0 TO

by Dave Fuller

Charlotte Bobcats
Current Record: 14-23, 4th (Southeast), 12th (East)
Predicted Record: 31-51, 4th (Southeast), 13th (East)
Predicted Playoff Outcome: NIP'd (Not In Playoffs)

NIP'd, you know, like nipped in the bud? Nevermind. Brandan Wright was dealt to the Golden State Warriors, Jason Richardson left Warriors fans booing (wrongly) at the move that brought him to Charlotte, and the Bobcats suddenly became an interesting team. Fans (not the diehard ones who really analyze every facet of a deal of this caliber) were ecstatic to see such a tough swingman enter the starting five and give the Bobcats what they needed: a strong outside shooter with the ability to switch gears and slash to the hoop. Not to mention a very solid rebounder at the 2. J-Rich came short of guaranteeing a playoff spot for the young but talented Bobcats, although he did state that he thought they could.

Perhaps Richardson should have. The last time he guaranteed a playoff berth was following Golden State's unsuccessful '05-'06 season (missing the playoffs for yet another season). The next season, the Warriors made it into the post-season as the No. 8 seed and knocked off the West's top seeded Dallas Mavericks.

The Bobcats were badly hurt by the loss of former Tarheel big man Sean May, but even he wouldn't have been able to cure this team's woes. What they realized after softie Primoz Brezec didn't pan out alongside Emeka Okafor is that they just have no perimeter defenders. Okafor is limited to the low post and its immediate vicinity, and neither player could effectively defend the outside game of most skilled offensive power forwards. What the trade for Nazr Mohammed did was exacerbate that deficiency by acquiring another relatively immobile big man while giving up athletic F Walter Herrmann.

Admittedly, the Bobcats did need another presence in the paint, but they were just not able to acquire the perimeter defender they needed. And now, they're stuck with Jeff McInnis as a starting G and Mohammed coming off the bench to spell Okafor or whoever else needs it. As we've seen thus far, however, those two do not combine well in the front-court when it comes to defense outside the paint. And, not a single player on the Bobcats can currently combine with Okafor to form a formidable defensive presence in the front-court that protects both the basket and the perimeter. I'd say these trades were likely if they were competing, but really, their focus should be on developing their youths and finding as many expiring contracts as humanly possible to clear cap space in the off-season.

Potential trades (in order of relative likelihood):

None

None? That's all I'm going to say? I must be taking the easy way out. However, looking at the top perimeter defenders in the league, there are really no trades that would possibly get done. Names such as Tayshaun Prince, Shawn Marion, Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, Josh Smith, and Shane Battier come up when discussing the top players in that category. Prince, Bowen, Marion, and Smith are integral to their teams' success. Marion's contract is also way too big for the Bobcats to take on. The same goes for Battier's and Bell's contracts. The Bobcats are not in the playoff hunt and should be going forward with that mindset, so taking on the contract of any of these or similar players would just be unwise.

I will, however, propose a potential scenario that has arisen from an NBA rumor. The Bobcats have apparently offered a package to the Memphis Grizzlies for FC Pau Gasol, which just has me shaking my head. It's extremely unlikely that a deal involving Gasol would go down this season, but it's just mind-blowing that the Bobcats are looking to deal for yet another big man who can't defend the outside (let alone dominate the inside). Charlotte does not need to go into rebuilding mode, and really, with their current contracts, they can't afford to. So, a move involving Gasol to the Bobcats should be out of the question, and I expect Charlotte to stay with their current roster for the remainder of the season (unless a deal comes along to clear up cap space or acquire draft picks).

Good luck next season, MJ.

by Dave Fuller

Boston Celtics
Current Record: 30-5, 1st (Atlantic), 1st (East)
Predicted Record: 67-15, 1st (Atlantic), 1st (East)
Predicted Playoff Outcome: Eastern Conference Championship loss to #2 Detroit Pistons in seven

The big question for this team heading into the season was chemistry. Would they be able to gel together immediately and dominate the East? Or would they take a while and experience growing pains while the rest of the league awaited their true arrival? Well, they've turned the doubts into The Truth and have shown the league that a team headed by three classy all-star veterans is one of the most potent combinations you can have on both sides of the ball. Throw in Doc Rivers' defensive influence and this is one team that is nearly impossible to beat. They should continue to cruise past the competition and seal the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The only thing this team needs is a deeper bench. Yes, Glen Davis is beginning to play a little more consistently and Eddie House is a nice reserve as a bomber/scorer, but admittedly they have one of the weakest benches in the league. After starters Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins (neither of which are true centers), the only relative "big man" doing anything is the aforementioned Glen "Big Baby" Davis. He is their only physical presence in the post for the second unit. Perkins can only play about 25 minutes a game, and Kevin Garnett won't be able to play 48 minutes a night in a seven game series in the playoffs.

Boston's next (or perhaps more important) problem is their point guard play. Rajon Rondo is beginning to develop consistency, but their deficiencies at the 1 truly stood out in their last game against the Washington Wizards. The C's put up 98.7 points a night, and the Wizards allow 96.9. The final score of that game? 85-78, Washington. Tony Allen was miserable starting at the point, and the other Celtics starters displayed how costly it can be to not have a true ball-handler bringing it up the court.

In summary, Boston is one of the top teams in the league solely because of strong offensive and defensive play by their triumvirate of Garnett, Allen, and Pierce, but without more depth at their weaker positions, they will not be able to handle the depth that is the Detroit Pistons in a seven game series. To address such problems, the Celtics must explore trades that allow them to acquire ball-handlers to come off the bench and rebounders to give them extra offensive possessions.

Potential trades (in order of relative likelihood):

Miami Heat :: PG Smush Parker
Boston Celtics :: PG/SG Tony Allen, C Scot Pollard

The C's would probably rather have Jason Williams from the Heat assuming he can stay healthy, but Williams is just owed too much money right now and Boston would not be able to rid of any expiring contracts that they could afford losing to make up for the payroll difference. That said, Smush is capable of handling backup duties while rarely used Scot Pollard and expendable combo guard Tony Allen are in the last years of their respective contracts (giving the Heat needed cap relief in the off-season).

Indiana Pacers :: C David Harrison
Boston Celtics :: PG/SG Tony Allen

This could happen, but is very unlikely to. Both teams get an expiring contract, which is always incentive to make a deal, but a one-for-one trade probably would not happen if it means the C's lose a guard and don't get one back. Harrison can rebound for the second team and spell Perkins while allowing Davis to play at a more natural position (likely power forward), so it is a legitimate trade. They would just need a separate trade to get them a ball-handling guard to make it work.

Either Damon Stoudamire or Sam Cassell would make nice additions as back-up point guards with playoff experience (something the Celtics also need if they want to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Championship), but with their massive contracts, neither of them are too enticing for the Celtics. Boston would basically need to give up Scot Pollard, James Posey, and Tony Allen to acquire Cassell. A bit too much if you ask me. And Stoudamire? Those two years on the contract are very repellant. The C's are best served to acquire Parker's relatively small (and expiring) contract to shore up their back-up issues at the point, but serviceable big men are difficult to find and Harrison may be one of the only ones available for trade. Samuel Dalembert could be another option, but his contract is just plain massive. Don't be surprised if Boston's roster stays put past the deadline.

by Dave Fuller

As the dog days of fantasy basketball come around (you know, the middle of the season and the time just before fantasy baseball starts to creep back up), as do the days of separation. The contenders will begin separating themselves from the pretenders, both in real and fantasy basketball. I've given you a wealth of information to continue to use as the season plays out, so all I can do is wish you good luck as you hang in there and fight through what may be the toughest weeks of the season. And hey, trust me, it will pay off.

So for now, I'll revert back to the idea of looking at NBA teams in my articles. I'll attempt to predict what is to come from each team whether it's general trade talks, needs, or subtle yet important aspects that can change the face of the fantasy game.

Atlanta Hawks
Current Record: 15-17, 3rd (Southeast), 8th (East)
Predicted Record: 40-42, 3rd (Southeast), 8th (East)
Predicted Playoff Outcome: First-round loss to #1 Boston Celtics in four

Atlanta should just sneak in ahead of the Indiana Pacers for the 8th spot in the East come playoff time. The Pacers have talent but due to injuries and playing style, inconsistencies continue to hinder their playoff hopes. The Hawks can only contend with teams like New Jersey, Cleveland, or Toronto if a deal for Andre Miller or maybe Jason Williams is made.

No trade rumors have surfaced for the Hawks, something that probably hasn't happened for this team in a while as they're finally a legitimate contender for the playoffs in the East. They do, however, need to at least evaluate the point guard situation. Yes, Anthony Johnson (33-year-old Anthony Johnson) has filled in with respectable numbers, but his aging body cannot continue to take the minutes he's been playing. His dwindling January stats reflect that. Josh Childress' return to NBA shape will help Johnson refrain from being overloaded, but this team needs a legitimate ball-handler who can set up the offense to back up or take minutes from Johnson. Jason Williams and Andre Miller are definitely players to look out for as the deadline draws near. Williams is in the last year of his contract this season, and the Miami Heat really have nothing to look forward to. Both players provide veteran leadership and playoff experience, and both players' expiring contracts are an added bonus. Neither player stands out defensively, something coach Mike Wood preaches, but I'm sure Mike Wood would sacrifice a little defense for offense if it means consistency at the point. Tyronn Lue's role as a backup is hurt by injury concerns, and may be enough for the Hawks to make an offer for Williams or Miller. Miller does come at a higher price, however, and it appears GM Ed Stefanski has little desire to deal Miller unless a strong offer is presented. He just likely isn't worth that offer for Atlanta right now. Damon Stoudamire is a third potential option, as he just wants out of Memphis following a big cut in his minutes due to Mike Conley, Jr.'s return from injury and Kyle Lowry's serviceable abilities. Stoudamire's agent is actively seeking a new team for him to play with.

Potential trades (in order of relative likelihood):

Miami Heat :: PG Jason Williams
Atlanta Hawks :: PG Tyronn Lue, PG/SG Salim Stoudamire, C Lorenzen Wright

This trade happens solely because both teams get expiring contracts in every player. ESPN.com's trade machine says it works, and no one gets stuck with a huge and poorly-constructed contract. Heat don't need Williams and likely wouldn't re-sign him, and the Hawks can do without any of those players.

Philadelphia 76ers :: PG Andre Miller
Atlanta Hawks :: PG Tyronn Lue, PG Anthony Johnson, C Lorenzen Wright

Once again, expiring contracts are the key here. Stefanski has said he'd like to "rebuild" the team around Miller and SG/SF Andre Iguodala, but come on. Have you checked Miller's birth certificate lately? Any attempt at doing so would require expiring contracts to free up cap room that can be used to sign free agents next season, so if no one bites at Samuel Dalembert (rumored to be on the trade block), Stefanski is best suited to give up Miller and take advantage of the expiring contracts.

Memphis Grizzlies :: PG Damon Stoudamire
Atlanta Hawks :: PG Tyronn Lue OR C Lorenzen Wright

Both teams get a guard in the deal, and Grizzlies get Lue's or Wright's expiring contract. This trade would not happen, however, because Stoudamire is just owed way too much next (final contract) season for what little left he brings to a team.

All-in-all, not a single one of these deals would really do anything but slightly raise or lower the already insignificant values of most players involved. Andre Miller would be the most impacted fantasy-wise in his deal, with an expected drop in scoring if this deal went down. Turnovers would also fall, but the team has players with solid scoring potential. His owners would be disappointed with that deal. Jason Williams' owners are disappointing for owning him, period.

Remember last season when the Golden State Warriors signed swingman Kelenna Azubuike, a former Kentucky star who went undrafted prior to the start of the season? The London-born Azubuike was tearing up the D-League at the time of his call-up, and turned in a solid line for the remainder of the season while injuries befell the Warriors. Ironically, that call-up happened in January of last year as well.

Golden State's at it again. C.J. Watson was signed to a 10-day contract by the Warriors on Tuesday. Call me biased (well, maybe I am considering the Warriors are my all-time favorite sports team), but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Watson provide relief for Don Nelson's squad similar to that which was provided by Azubuike in '06-'07. Why?

Well, aside from the similarities already mentioned, Watson and Azubuike share some other things. Watson was a star at Tennessee before entering the draft, only to go undrafted. Watson is a rookie this season, just as KA was when he was signed. Both players were also SEC rivals in college, allowing the two to share the court as opponents. Now, they'll share it as allies.

Now, I'm not saying Watson is going to be something special, nor am I saying he will provide the same offensive spark and high-energy play as Azubuike provided after his call-up. Hell, Watson might even wear out his welcome before his contract even expires. What I can guarantee, however, is that Watson will provide at least some relief to point guard Baron Davis while he remains with the team. Davis needs it, too, as he's only 24 seconds per game short of playing 40 minutes per. That doesn't bode well for the Warriors' playoff hopes, so perhaps the combo guard Watson will take the opportunity he's been granted and put up respectable numbers as the primary backup while allowing Davis to rest more than he's been doing.

Besides, does anyone really want to be watching a Davis-less Warriors squad in the playoffs? I didn't think so. Here's to Watson living up to Azubuike's precedent. And, here are fantasy basketball's current ups: ...

Mike Conley, Jr. :: PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies
January is a new year; Conley definitely finds that to be relevant. Since returning from an injury that has lasted nearly all season, Conley played the last December game as a reserve and has started all four of the team's January games. The results are pretty for the 20-year-old out of Ohio State. His solid rebounding (4.5 per game, high for his 6'1", 180 lb. frame) and assist (6.3) totals are reminiscent of a young Jason Kidd, who posted similar (slightly higher) numbers in his rookie campaign. Conley is smaller than Kidd, but could develop into nearly as proficient a passer. Career-wise, think of a slightly larger Chris Paul with slightly less talent. There's Conley.

Joe Smith :: PF, Chicago Bulls
Rumors have it that Tyrus Thomas' sophomore attitude are causing him to lose minutes quickly. The veteran Smith has no problem with that. Thomas doesn't want the minutes? Fine. Smith has responded by stepping up his numbers across the board: 34.7 minutes, 50.8 FG%, 85.7 FT%, 8.5 rebounds, 1.0 TO, 1.0 steals, 2.3 blocks, and 19.5 points (four January games). Had he been putting up numbers like that all season, he'd be a top 25 fantasy player easy. Smith's silky-smooth mid-range jumper combines with his solid post moves to create a line suitable for any fantasy squad at this point.

Ben Gordon :: SG, Chicago Bulls
Seems like I'm taking the easy way out with Gordon here, doesn't it? Well, any time I put a player on the upswing following a "demotion" to the role of 6th-man, it can't be that easy, can it? I'll admit, this time it is. Under Jim Boylan, Gordon once again becomes perhaps the top 6th-man in the NBA. Gordon plays with a wealth of intensity and energy, often putting up some wild shots if he can't penetrate or find himself with open shots. By benching him before his number's called, Boyland finds himself with a more patient Gordon who can continue to wear down opposing defenses. His numbers as a starter (38.9 FG%, 17.6 ppg) vs. as a reserve (51.1 FG%, 27.1 ppg) reaffirm that. Nearly 10 points per game higher! It was the same story in 2006, so it's no coincidence.

Notable Mentions: Rafer Alston :: PG, Houston Rockets; Antonio Daniels :: PG, Washington Wizards; Nate Robinson :: PG/SG, New York Knicks

... and downs:

Jameer Nelson :: PG, Orlando Magic
This likely won't last long, as current replacement Carlos Arroyo is far from excellent at the point. Nelson lost the starting role to Arroyo following a long stretch of inconsistent play. This was perhaps due to his strained back, an injury that caused him to miss a game directly after. Arroyo plays some subpar defense, exacerbated by his mediocre speed (for a guard, anyway). He also tries to force passes where passes don't belong (unless you're Steve Nash or Chris Paul), so Nelson could be reinserted into the starting five any game now. However, any time a usual starter has to play his way back into the opening lineup, things are likely on the downswing.

Chris Kaman :: C, Los Angeles Clippers
Let's face it: the Clippers don't have much of a long-ball attack. This has become devestating for the Los Angeles big-man big-time. The only true threat the Clips have from deep is vet Tim Thomas, but he had been out for two weeks prior to LA's last game. Cuttino Mobley might chip in a bomb now and then, but without an additional threat, defenses have a simple way of shutting down LA's offense: double- or triple-team Kaman (the only true force they have down low). It's not a huge surprise that Kaman got back on track with Thomas playing again, but when a player's numbers are contingent on the health of one teammate (Tim Thomas here), things aren't looking up.

Zach Randolph :: PF, New York Knicks
This must be the theme of the New York Knicks: acquire and play big-men who play half as big as they actually are. Last week I made mention of Eddy Curry, who does the same thing on a nightly basis, because of his supposed demotion. It appears as though Curry finally realizes his spot isn't guaranteed, because he's actually rebounding and shooting like he should. As for Randolph, shooting at a 38.7% clip and losing 3.4 possessions a game (over the past five) won't do him any favors. Neither will his lack of defensive stats (0.4 steals, 0.0 blocks over the last five as well). His line is starting to resemble Curry's, which is poor fantasy company.

Notable Mentions: Juan Carlos Navarro :: PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies; Andrea Bargnani :: SF/PF/C, Toronto Raptors; Kyle Lowry :: PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies

by Dave Fuller

As most of you probably already know, a player's third season in the NBA is often the season in which they break out and set the course for the remainder of their professional basketball career. Of course, this is all reliant on the fact that said player is receiving enough consistent playing time to develop their skills. It's logical to think that a lottery pick should be making an immediate impact and may likely even start from day one and that most of the remainder of the first round picks should be seeing at least decent minutes off the bench in their rookie season. So, it's plain to see that most players with enough drive, perseverence, and sheer talent should be breaking out in their third season if they will ever be anything more than a 7th man or better.

So, let's take a look at just how well some third-year players (drafted in '05) are doing this season and if it's as good a predictor as it's hyped up to be. Before we do so, we'll see the percentage of those in the 2005 draft class who are starting for their teams, those who are reserves, those who have changed teams at least once, and those currently not in the NBA (only 1st round and noteble 2nd round picks are listed):

Well, there's quite a bit of information to take from this. First, with some quick math, those percentages come out as:

40.7% (11/27; excludes injured players) of 1st rounders are currently starting
51.9% (14/27; excludes injured players) of 1st rounders are currently reserves
70.0% (21/30; includes injured players) of 1st rounders have changed teams at least once
3.3% (1/30; includes injured players) of 1st rounders are currently not in the NBA

Since the 2nd round can be a crapshoot, I only included 1st-round players. As you can see from players such as Brandon Bass, Monta Ellis, Louis Williams, Andray Blatche, and Ryan Gomes, even 2nd-round players can make an impact. However, as I only consider these 7 worth mentioning as relatively developed players, it's safe to say only 25-30% of 2nd rounders will make a notable impact in the NBA.

I don't have the type of information I'd love to have access to, so I can't compare 2005's draft class to those of other years. The 1st round information from 2005, though, seems to show some pretty solid development overall. Just over 40% of non-injured players are currently starting for their team, which is spectacular considering their experience and the skill level of players already with starting roles. The fact that only one player has left the NBA and only two are currently inactive is also impressive. If one thing stands out as a negative, it's the high change rate (70.0% in a mere two and a half seasons). The NBA, however, is a business, and that's what happens with professional sports. Likely not much of a deviation from the norm.

Here are the approximate top 10 statistical improvement lines from 1st-round players of the 2005 draft class (from second to third season):

1. Rashad McCants :: PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minutes (+11:48), FG% (+7.1), 3PT (+1.5), FT% (+5.5), Rebounds (+0.8), Assists (+1.0), Steals (+0.2), Blocks (+0.1), Points (+8.7)

2. Jason Maxiell :: SF/PF/C, Detroit Pistons
Minutes (+9:13), FG% (+6.5), FT% (+14.1), Rebounds (+2.9), Assists (+0.5), Blocks (+0.4), Points (+4.3)

3. Andrew Bynum :: C, Los Angeles Lakers
Minutes (+6:43), FG% (+6.2), FT% (+1.3), Rebounds (+3.9), Assists (+0.4), Steals (+0.2), Blocks (+0.4), Points (+4.5)

4. Chris Paul :: PG, New Orleans Hornets
Minutes (+0:43), FG% (+4.2), 3PT (+0.3), FT% (+7.3), Assists (+1.4), Steals (+1.1), Points (+4.0)

5. Marvin Williams :: SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks
Minutes (+2:36), FG% (+6.7), Rebounds (+0.3), Turnovers (-0.3), Steals (+0.4), Points (+4.6)

6. Francisco Garcia :: SG/SF, Sacramento Kings
Minutes (+9:48), FG% (+1.3), 3PT (+0.6), Rebounds (+0.9), Assists (+0.5), Steals (+0.7), Points (+7.5)

7. Antoine Wright :: SG/SF, New Jersey Nets
Minutes (+11:54), 3PT (+0.5), FT% (+4.8), Rebounds (+0.4), Assists (+0.8), Steals (+0.2), Blocks (+0.4), Points (+4.3)

8. Martell Webster :: SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers
Minutes (+8:05), FG% (+2.7), 3PT (+0.5), FT% (+3.1), Rebounds (+1.2), Assists (+0.8), Steals (+0.2), Blocks (+0.3), Points (+3.7)

9. Deron Williams :: PG, Utah Jazz
Minutes (+0:19), FG% (+5.1), FT% (+1.0), Steals (+0.1), Blocks (+0.1), Points (+3.1)

10. Danny Granger :: SG/SF, Indiana Pacers
Minutes (+0:53), 3PT (+0.3), Rebounds (+0.9), Assists (+0.6), Steals (+0.2), Blocks (+0.4), Points (+2.2)

Of course, I'm not saying Rashad McCants is a better real-life NBA player than Chris Paul or Andrew Bynum. Danny Granger and Deron Williams (perhaps a top 3 PG in the league) weren't that low on the top 10 players from the 2005 draft class for the professional game, either. It's merely a ranking of how well each player has developed between last (second) season and this (third) season. Well, fantasy-wise, anyway.