Now that we're halfway through the fantasy football season, let's take a look at this year's crop of rookie running backs.  Here are my rankings:
 
Four Stars:
 
Chris Johnson, Ten - Johnson has been the workhorse back and offensive star for the Titans this season, with 15+ carries every game.  Most people (including myself) saw Johnson as merely the change-of-pace back to a leading LenDale White, but that has been completely backwards. As a rookie he is likely to tire out towards the end of the season though so look for the Titans to lessen his load, especially if they've clinched a playoff spot early.
 
Matt Forte, Chi - Everybody knew he was starting (hopefully you didn't buy into that Kevin Jones gimmick) but few people expected this.  Forte is 8th in the league in rushing with 515 yards and should continue on to a 1000 yard rushing season.  His average of 3.5 yds/carry is a concern, but as long as the Bears keep giving him the ball 20+ times (as they have 5 of 7 games so far) it won't matter too much.
 

Three Stars
 
Steve Slaton, Hou - I'm surprised I didn't think more of him in the preseason when I knew -- I knew! -- the Texans didn't have anybody to start at RB.  I guess I just assumed they would make a bad decision and go with Ahman Green.  Well, 423 rushing yards and 3 TDs later, Slaton is a regular fantasy starter -- but here comes Ahman Green.  Maybe I was right after all.  It's hard to see how this season will end up for Slaton.
 
Jonathan Stewart, Car - He's been sharing time with DeAngelo Williams (as expected) but has been grabbing the goal line touchdowns (as expected).  So far, about what I expected.  That doesn't make it any easier to use him in fantasy though, where the Panthers' will-they/won't they RB system drives you nuts.  Carolina has won every game where Stewart has 10+ carries, and has lost every game where he has fewer than ten carries, so Stewart owners hope the Panthers catch on to that trend damn soon.

Q: Does RB Larry Johnson produce enough to shift responsibility for this loss to the passing game?

A: Let me understate the answer.  Hell no!  Larry Johnson rushed seven times for two yards and was not the recipient of one of the two KC QBs' 15 completions.

Q: Can RBs D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart run enough to "hurt" the fantasy value of WRs Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed?

A: D'Angelo Williams rushed for 123 yards, 2 TDs and caught a third.  Jonathan Stewart rushed for 72 yards, and this question was answered in the negative.  Smith had 96 yards and Muhammed had 71 with a TD.  These four accounted for 362 of the Panthers' 441 rushing and receiving yards.  Fantasy players would take that type of concentration from each and every team, each and every week.

Fantasy Player To Trade:  WR Dwayne Bowe.  He has established himself as a WR2 in PPR formats, but the Chiefs will struggle to score TDs through the air.  Cash in his 10-13 points per week.

In a match-up between two Week One road winners, the Carolina Panthers defeated the Chicago Bears 20-17 at home.  The Bears' special teams scored first while its offense managed to score just 10 points.  TE Greg Olson fumbled deep in Panther territory late in the opening quarter and again deep in Bears territory in the 3rd period.  This led directly to a Panthers' TD.

For the Bears, this looks like a team whose offense will not win games.  With a strong defense and special teams play, the Bears could be in every game.  As soon as the offense is needed, though, the game is over.

Despite an overall offense that won't win games, the Bears have a legitmate RB in rookie Matt Forte.  He followed-up his great debut with 93 yards on 23 carries and three receptions for 21 more.  As long as the defense/special teams keeps the games close, Forte is a solid RB2 each week.

The Panthers didn't throw the ball well (102 team passing yards) nor did it dominate rushing the ball (31 attempts for 114 yards), but the team made a change in the 2nd half that could have big fantasy implications.  Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart became the workhorse in the second half scoring two TDs and rushing for 76 of his 77 yards.

Disappointingly, last week's fantasy surprise, TE Donte Rosario, did not follow-up with a good game statistically.  He caught just one pass for six yards. 

Fantasy Player To Watch:  RB Jonathan Stewart 

Jaxon of  Cat Scratch Reader, the SBNation's blog on the Carolina Panthers, brings fantasy tips for the team.

Way back in June I reported on the Carolina Panthers Fantasy prospects and would like to offer the following update based on the preseason.

Outside of leagues full of Panther fans you should be able to get Panthers at good value. If you believe, like I do, that the Panther offense will be much improved, then you will want to target the following players in the rounds suggested based on a ten team league:

Continue reading this post »

Wow.

Panthers star receiver Steve Smith has been suspended for the team's first two regular-season games without pay for punching cornerback Ken Lucas in Friday morning's training camp practice in Spartanburg, breaking Lucas' nose.

"What he did was wrong," Fox said of Smith. "We take it very serious. He's being punished severely. ... It's an act that's inexcusable and it can't happen."

The Panthers open the season at San Diego on Sept. 7, then play at home against Chicago on Sept. 14.

Well, this certainly isn't good.  Smith should now be moved down on your draft lists, as missing two full games will likely cost him between 150 and 220 receiving yards off his seasonal total. 

This move hurts Jake Delhomme -- a lot.  It also hurts Jonathan Stewart as defenses will now key (even more) on the running game. 

This probably helps DJ Hackett though -- with defenses keying on Muhsin Muhammad as the new WR1, Hackett should see a lot more chances for the first two weeks.  He might be a decent flex option during those two games if you really need a WR.

I’ve noticed that fantasy RB rankings have Jonathan Stewart rated somewhere around thirty, so putting him in my Top 20 makes me look a bit strange.

There are plenty of reasons to think I’m strange for doing this too.  QB Jake Delhomme is coming off Tommy John surgery, a procedure that only two NFL QBs have ever returned from.  It’s a huge risk considering the only backups are Matt Moore (who looked barely adequate last year) and untested former college star Brett Basanez.  Basanez is on my sleeper list this season, but you don’t want to risk a Top 20 RB pick on that.

The offensive line is also a concern, as every single position on the line has a new starter including first round draft pick Jeff Otah. The rebuild of the offensive line is obviously key to Stewart’s success and – let’s face it – it doesn’t look great right now.

So why am I high on Jonathan Stewart?  Simply because of the huge upside the guy brings.  The Panthers are moving to a run-heavy offensive plan and Stewart is the lynchpin.  DeAngelo Williams will provide a nice change of pace, but Stewart will the man.  I expect he'll get 20-25 carries and as long as that's the case, I think he’s going to consistently put up solid stats.

The Panthers also have a nice WR corps this season.  Everybody knows Steve Smith, but the addition of Muhsin Muhammad and DJ Hackett means the quarterback (whoever that turns out to be) will have a nice set of targets.  Opposing defenses will have to respect the receivers enough that they can’t target the running game every single play.

I realize this justification sounds a bit flimsy, and I argued with myself over whether or not to put him into Tier 4.  In the end, I felt Stewart has huge potential and when you get to the running backs rated 15-20, you’re taking a risk anyway.  Every once in a while, you need to take a home-run swing.  I think Stewart could be that season-changing RB2 to explodes into RB1 status. 

Image via athlonsports.com

Previous posts: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3

My Tier 4 running backs are the better RB2s you’ll have a chance to draft.  None of these guys are dependable RB1 material, although if you use your first round pick on a QB or a WR then you’ll probably end up with one of these guys as your top RB. That has either a little risk or a lot of risk, depending on where you’re drafting.  In alphabetical order:

Ronnie Brown, Mia – Before Brown went out with a season-ending injury, it was possible he was the best running back in fantasy, depending on your league scoring.  With 991 total yards and 5 total touchdowns through only seven games, he was well on his way to a Westbrook-esque season.  Let’s not forget that he put up those stats on a team that lost all seven of those games.   The only thing stopping me from putting him in Tier 3 is the screwed up QB situation, which could be anybody from rookie Chad Henne to Josh McCown.  I want to believe that Ronnie Brown is a fantasy stud, but I can’t just yet.

Jamal Lewis, Cle – Lewis has always been a problem for me, I'll go into that later. 

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jax – Jones-Drew couldn’t top his spectacular rookie season, but 768 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs isn’t too bad no matter how you look at it.  The only reason he’s put in Tier 4 is that he’s sharing time with Fred Taylor and that prevents him  from fully breaking out.  Then again, Taylor will turn 32 this season.  Taylor is an iron man, but eventually the Jags are going to start transitioning away from Taylor and towards J-D.  You’d think.   Don’t they?  I like Jones-Drew’s odds to improve on last year’s stats.

Jonathan Stewart, Car – Stewart also gets the special treatment later on.

Willie Parker, Pit – Poor Willie Parker.  He was a top five pick in last season’s fantasy drafts and to justify the confidence he rushes for 1316 yards including eight games with 100+ rushing yards.  So what happens?  The Steelers draft a RB in the first round and Parker drops to Tier 4.  Wow.  Parker averaged over 20 carries a game in 2007 and there’s no way we’ll see that with Rashard Mendenhall hanging around.  In fact, with the Steelers now having three better-than-average WRs (Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed) , the entire Pittsburgh rushing game should take a step back.  Maybe several steps.  It’s very possible Parker won’t hit 1000 rushing yards this season, and he won’t score enough touchdowns to make up for it.