Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens:  McGahee is supposed to play this afternoon.  The question is will he get the 16+ touches he received in all but one of the six games he has played in.  It is especially difficult thanks to the breakout game rookie RB Ray Rice had last week against the Cleveland Browns.

The Rutgers University alum gained 176 total yards last week on 24 touches.  That effort has made Rice the most productive Ravens RB with 339 rushing yards and 188 receving ones.  In comparison, McGahee has 351 yards rushing and 104 receiving.  Le'Ron McCalin has 347 and 82 respectively - most of which were accumulated in the Ravens' first four games.

If forced, I'd prefer to start Ray Rice.  With McGahee's health still in question and Rice's burst and receiving ability, the choice is easier.

QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders:  Will he or won't he?  For fantasy purposes, no one cares.  Russell's super-stinker against the Falcons has permanently placed Russell in the free agent pool.

RB Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs:  With RB Larry Johnson serving a suspension, the rookie from Texas is the starter.  Early in the week, he was the undisputed starter until head coach herm Edwards rained on that parade.

Edwards publicly stated Charles wasn't big enough to withstand 20+ carries.  As a result, RB Dantrell Savage has stepped into the time share.

While the 5'8, 182 lb rookie from Oklahoma State can help the too-small 5'11, 199 lb Charles avoid being too beat-up, Charles has some proven NFL receiving ability.  Given the San Diego Chargers pass defense is ranked 29th over the past three-games, Charles should remain a viable fantasy starter thanks to the likelihood of a Chiefs' air game.

Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams:  Jackson is out.  His replacement will be Kenneth Darby.  The second-year back from Alabama has limited professional experience with just four touches in 2007.  A possible plus is half of those were receptions.  Given the Jets are stout agains the run, Darby's potential fantasy value is wrapped-up in his ability to catch some balls out of the backfield.

Here's the second part of my review of this year's rookie running backs. Part 1 can be found here.

Two Stars
 
Darren McFadden, Oak - He was considered the best rookie running back prospect coming into the season, but so far he hasn't come close to that title. He had a huge 21 carry, 164 yard performance in Week 2, but has totaled less than 140 yards total in the four games since then.  He also has had fewer than nine carries in each of the past three games.  There's no way for him to succeed if the Raiders just don't use him.  That may change under new coach Tom Cable, but the early signs are that the Raiders are going back to Justin Fargas so it's just more fantasy chaos from the Raiders.  Things don't look like they're going to get better for McFadden owners this season.
 
Kevin Smith, Det - Considering the Lions have been terrible so far, and considering the Lions don't give him enough carries (only one game with more than ten carries), Jones is doing relatively well.  His 4.9 yds/carry average and touchdowns in two of the past three games are positives. However, you don't want to hear about positives if your fantasy team is losing because you had been counting on him.  Has a lot of potential upside for the second half, but right now he's unreliable for your fantasy team.   The best you (and the city of Detroit) can hope for is for a coaching change.  Very soon.  Please hurry.
 
One Star
 
Tim Hightower, Arz - He's a touchdown machine (five TDs in six games) but not much else.  In larger leagues, that's enough.  He's a gamble every week, but if Edge goes down Hightower will be a fantasy star in every league. 
 
Felix Jones, Dal - He was shaping up as a nice flex option before his injury, especially in leagues that score for kick/punt returns.   As long as the Cowboys don't panic and rush him back too soon, he should be  productive for the rest of the year. 
 
 
Zero Stars
 
Jamaal Charles, KC - He hasn't done anything yet, but with Larry Johnson benched/suspended/overpaid for the rest of the season, there's a very good chance Charles may have the starting job some time soon.  He's a guy to grab now if he's still available in your league.
 
Ray Rice, Bal - There were reports in the offseason that Rice was looking so impressive the Ravens were considering cutting Willis McGahee and handing the starting job to Rice. Eh, not seeing it.  A 3.0 yd/carry average isn't going to impress anybody.  Barring a McGahee injury (which, now that I think about it, is almost inevitable) he won't have any fantasy value.
 
Rashard Mendenhall, Pit - He was damn unlucky picking up a season-ending injury right before Willie Parker did, but to be honest he didn't look that great before the injury.

Q: Is this the week the Titans put to rest the notion of a RBBC?

A: Rookie RB Chris Johson rushed for 168 yards and a TD.  RB LenDale White followed-up his three carry effort with 149 rushing yards and 3 TDS!  This scenario is begining to feel similar to the one frequently encountered in fantasy baseball - a flame-throwing middle reliever stuck behind a closer who lacks all the exciting skills of the middle reliever but keeps his important fantasy role.

Q: How do RBs Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles do filling in for the suspended Larry Johnson?

A: Not good at all.  Smith had eleven touches, and Charles had seven.  Smith got 25 yards, and Charles had 43.  The Chiefs were destroyed on the ground, but I can't help thinking the distribution of RB touches could have been more effectively deployed for a better game.

Fantasy Player To Sell High:  The Titans RB.  Sorry, I am a fan of the flame-throwing middle reliever so I can't get myself to say, "Chris Johnson."

Q: Will RB Larry Johnson be productive?

A: After whining about his usage, Larry Johnson produced when his number was called (unlike the previous two games.)  He rushed for a 121 yards and a TD on 24 carries.  Unfortunately, it was not enough to provide some comfort for QB Tyler Thigpen who completed just 14 of 36 passes - none of which went to Larry Johnson.  Rookie RB Jamaal Charles did catch three, though.

Q: Can RB Michael Turner settle nicely somewhere between his Week One performance and his Week Two one?

A: Oh, yeah.  104 yards and 3 TDs on 23 carries is all anyone could hope for.  Heck, if he had just a single TD, it would have been enough.  He did not catch any passes out of the backfield, though.  That limits his value somewhat as the Falcons' offense is not built to pass.

Buy Low Fantasy Player:  TE Tony Gonzalez.  While he has caught 15 passes in three games, his 129 yards will suppress his value.  Who doesn' think a TE averging 43 yards a game isn't fungible?

Chris from Arrowhead Pride brings some fantasy football tips from the Kansas City Chiefs:

The Kansas City Chiefs will again have a killer fantasy season with Trent Green, Priest Holmes and Dante Hall all putting up big numbers yet again.

Wait a second. What year is this? 2008? Wow, for some reason when I thought of the Kansas City Chiefs and fantasy football my mind only remembers through the 2003 season. Oh well. I'll do my best to update you on this year's squad.

Continue reading this post »

The Chiefs’ selection of Jamaal Charles (73^rd overall) is a very interesting one.  On the surface, it looks like the Chiefs are looking for some youth to backup their very highly paid starter, Larry Johnson.  The Chiefs drafted Larry Johnson early when they had arguably the best running back in fantasy football (Priest Holmes) on their roster, there’s every reason to think they’re drafting Charles to sit on the bench for a few seasons as the running back of the future.

Dig a little deeper though, and you have to wonder if the future is a lot nearer than you’d think.  Charles dropped to the third round because he’s not exceptionally big (5’ 11", 200 lbs), but he is a fast, elusive back with decent pass-catching skills.  He would make a great speed back to compliment Johnson’s power back role.  With Johnson suffering from nagging injuries last season, it would seem to be a good idea to have somebody step in and take a few carries to help preserve him for the entire season.   The Chiefs' plan to let Johnson take 400+ carries in 2006 looks pretty stupid in hindsight.

So there are two ways Charles could be used this season.  He could come in as a change-of-pace back, grabbing a few carries each quarter and keeping LJ fresh.   Or, he could be used as the speed component of a full-fledged running back by committee, taking anywhere from 25% to 50% of the carries.  I don’t know what the Chiefs are thinking, but Herm Edwards isn’t known for being flexible and innovative on offense, so I doubt that they’re moving to a "Thunder and Lightning" running back arrangement.

Even if they don’t give Charles a decent share of the carries, Johnson is still an injury risk so Charles is likely to start at least one game this season.  I like Jamaal Charles as a good late round draft pick, a guy you stash on your bench as an RB4 or RB5.  If you draft Larry Johnson, then Charles becomes an essential choice as a running back handcuff.

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