Now that we're halfway through the fantasy football season, let's take a look at this year's crop of rookie running backs.  Here are my rankings:
 
Four Stars:
 
Chris Johnson, Ten - Johnson has been the workhorse back and offensive star for the Titans this season, with 15+ carries every game.  Most people (including myself) saw Johnson as merely the change-of-pace back to a leading LenDale White, but that has been completely backwards. As a rookie he is likely to tire out towards the end of the season though so look for the Titans to lessen his load, especially if they've clinched a playoff spot early.
 
Matt Forte, Chi - Everybody knew he was starting (hopefully you didn't buy into that Kevin Jones gimmick) but few people expected this.  Forte is 8th in the league in rushing with 515 yards and should continue on to a 1000 yard rushing season.  His average of 3.5 yds/carry is a concern, but as long as the Bears keep giving him the ball 20+ times (as they have 5 of 7 games so far) it won't matter too much.
 

Three Stars
 
Steve Slaton, Hou - I'm surprised I didn't think more of him in the preseason when I knew -- I knew! -- the Texans didn't have anybody to start at RB.  I guess I just assumed they would make a bad decision and go with Ahman Green.  Well, 423 rushing yards and 3 TDs later, Slaton is a regular fantasy starter -- but here comes Ahman Green.  Maybe I was right after all.  It's hard to see how this season will end up for Slaton.
 
Jonathan Stewart, Car - He's been sharing time with DeAngelo Williams (as expected) but has been grabbing the goal line touchdowns (as expected).  So far, about what I expected.  That doesn't make it any easier to use him in fantasy though, where the Panthers' will-they/won't they RB system drives you nuts.  Carolina has won every game where Stewart has 10+ carries, and has lost every game where he has fewer than ten carries, so Stewart owners hope the Panthers catch on to that trend damn soon.

The best rushing defenses always cause me the most consternation when making decisions about who to start at RB, but scanning this week's top defenses doesn't worry me as much. There are only three top RBs facing top rush defenses this week.

The Miami Dolphins face the fearsome Baltimore Ravens defense. RB Ronnie Brown could struggle, but he has pass catching ability, and, in the Wildcat, passing throwing ability. Those extra sources of production keep Brown as a starter barring the most favorable of options i.e. RB Steve Slaton against the Detroit Lions and RB Chris Johnson against Kansas City.

The more intriguing match-up for elite RBs is the Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears game. Each team features an elite option at RB. The Minnesota Vikings have the slightly-disappointing Adrian Peterson, and the Chicago Bears have Matt Forte. With the opposing defense stout against the run, either back is likely to see a 20+ carry day and 60-70 yards. Throw-in a TD and that would qualify as a "productive" day. However, don't be surprised to see a less traditional aerial attack by both teams.

The Vikings rank in the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, and the Chicago passing game has been surprising potent in recent weeks. QB Kyle Orton, WR Devan Hester and TE Greg Olson could be in line to extend that streak.

For the Gus Frerotte/Bernard Berrian-led Vikings passing game, the Chicago defense causes salivation. The Bears have ranked amongst the worst teams in the NFL in PYA by any time period measured. The rank over the last three games? 25th. Over the entire season? 30th. For those looking for surprising WR production, look no further than Berrian who could post his third consectutive 100+ yard receiving game.

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At the top of the list of ten best rush defenses is a big surprise. The Philadelphia Eagles come in as the top ranked defense by rushing yards allowed (RYA). Maybe it was the Super Bowl win by the New York Giants and all the favorable press surrounding the Dallas Cowboys, but I did not expect the Eagles to be so highly-ranked. This is not good news for rookie RB Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears. With very little passing game to compel the Eagles to back off the line of scrimmage, Forte may have his worst game of the season after making believers of everyone after his excellent three-game debut.

A team that should get a little more analysis of their RYA is the New York Jets. Their RYA is heavily influenced by the 49 yards the defense allowed against the Miami Dolphins in Week One. In the past two games, the Jets defense has allowed just over 100 rushing yards per game. If just the last two weeks are used to calculate RYA, the New York Jets drop to a middle-of-the-pack 16th overall. Should this make Edgerrin James of the Arizona Cardinals a more comfortable start? Slightly, but I think the repercussion is related more to the hope the Cardinals would have been forced to the air more against a souter run defense. And really, aren't fantasy players just concerned with the Cardinals passing weapons?

In a similar vein, the Tennessee Titans are not as fearsome in RYA as their #10 ranking indicates if Week one is disregarded. The Titans defense drops to 17th overall. For those who would have even considered resting Minnesota Vikings' RB Adrian Peterson, don't waste anymore second-guessing. Recall the Houston Texans rushed for 146 team yards last week agains the Titans, and a smaller back than Peterson, Steve Slaton, ran for 116 yards and a score. I can see the Titans dropping considerably in my rolling three-game RYA ranks.

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Q: Without WR Joey Galloway and an immobile QB in Brian Griese, which receivers benefit?

A: WR Antonio Bryant caught 10 passes for a 138 yards.  Both totals are stunning but not as stunning as the number of passes QB Brian Griese threw - 67!  Will this be the new Tampa Bay offense?  If so, then there is some worry about the ongoing value of RB Earnest Graham.  After catching 49 passes last season, he was shutout in this game.

Q: Can Matt Forte provide another productive fantasy line?

A: Yes. 89 yards rushing along with 66 yards receiving and a TD puts Forte in borderline RB1 status in any fantasy football format.

Buy Low Fantasy Player:  WR Ike Hilliard.  With the byes portion of the 2008 NFL schedule upon us, ignore Hillard's 2 TDs and 5.1 receptions per game average at your own peril.

In a match-up between two Week One road winners, the Carolina Panthers defeated the Chicago Bears 20-17 at home.  The Bears' special teams scored first while its offense managed to score just 10 points.  TE Greg Olson fumbled deep in Panther territory late in the opening quarter and again deep in Bears territory in the 3rd period.  This led directly to a Panthers' TD.

For the Bears, this looks like a team whose offense will not win games.  With a strong defense and special teams play, the Bears could be in every game.  As soon as the offense is needed, though, the game is over.

Despite an overall offense that won't win games, the Bears have a legitmate RB in rookie Matt Forte.  He followed-up his great debut with 93 yards on 23 carries and three receptions for 21 more.  As long as the defense/special teams keeps the games close, Forte is a solid RB2 each week.

The Panthers didn't throw the ball well (102 team passing yards) nor did it dominate rushing the ball (31 attempts for 114 yards), but the team made a change in the 2nd half that could have big fantasy implications.  Rookie RB Jonathan Stewart became the workhorse in the second half scoring two TDs and rushing for 76 of his 77 yards.

Disappointingly, last week's fantasy surprise, TE Donte Rosario, did not follow-up with a good game statistically.  He caught just one pass for six yards. 

Fantasy Player To Watch:  RB Jonathan Stewart 

With fantasy football drafts occurring en masse over the next two weeks, it is time to look at the pre-season games and jump to conclusions.  This is Week Three of the NFL's exhibition season and starters are playing into the 2nd half.  Here are some notes on Thursday's San Francisco 49ers / Chicago Bears tilt.  (Oh, the '80s were a loooong time ago.)

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Rotonews.com is reporting that former Lions' RB Kevin Jones will soon be signing a contract with the Bears.

Rotonews seems to think that Jones will grab the majority of carries from rookie Matt Forte, but I don't agree.  

Kevin Jones isn't a small guy (5'11", 221 lbs) but Matt Forte is even bigger at 6'2" and 222 lbs. 

Jones is coming off a knee injury and was cut by the Lions.  The Lions!  The same Lions team that is planning to start some combination of Tatum Bell and rookie Kevin Smith.   OK, let me drive that point home again.

The Lions took a look at Kevin Jones and said "Hmm, how about instead of this guy, we go with Tatum Bell and Silent Bob from 'Clerks'?  Yeah, let's do that."

Make no mistake, this isn't a good move for fantasy players.  It adds one more team to the list of Running Backs By Committee (RRBC) and lowers Matt Forte's value.

But it probably lowers it enough that Forte becomes a late round afterthought in your fantasy draft -- which makes him a nice sleeper.  Use caution, but don't let this move scare you away from Forte.

When you first heard that the Bears drafted a running back with in the second round, your reaction was probably "Aaargh!" as it seemed another team had decided to move from a single running back to a running back by committee.  OK, maybe it was only me.  But fear not, gentle reader, for this is actually good news.  Matt Forte (44^th overall) comes not to compliment Cedric Benson, but to bury him.

As any fantasy owner knows, Cedric Benson is not that good.  The injury-prone Benson finished last season with 674 rushing yards, a 3.4 yard per rush average and four rushing touchdowns.  To be fair, the quarterback carousel and underwhelming receiving corps in Chicago hasn’t helped, but most of the blame for the terrible rushing game has to fall on Benson.  Forte was a strong candidate to take over for Benson the minute he was drafted, but with Benson’s recent problems it becomes even more likely.

Benson was charged with Boating While Intoxicated recently and now is likely to face a suspension from the NFL.  Even if he escapes a suspension, the Bears are probably ready to get past all the negatives Benson brings to the team and the clubhouse.

With the Bears spending their first round pick on building-sized OT Chris Williams, there is every opportunity for Forte to succeed.  At 6’2" and 222 lbs, Forte is the type of power back the Bears need to grind out yards in the frozen tundra (three of their four December games are at home this season, two of those at night) at Soldier Field.  If Benson is suspended, Forte should be able to muscle past the other Adrian Peterson to grab the starting role.  I’m not too worried about a Benson-Forte committee either.  Either Forte will take over from Benson and be the sole starter, or Forte will be so bad that even Cedric Benson will be a better choice.  I’m going to predict the former option.

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