Darren McFadden is having a horrible season and he, along with the entire Raiders offense, is painful to watch.  If I had to decide whether to watch the Raiders or be chained to a table while being forced to listen to the entire catalog of Starship, I'd have to think about it for a while. 

McFadden was projected to be the best running back in this season's rookie class and the "can't miss" fantasy prospect of any rookie at any position.  While he was drafted by a Raiders team that had a 1000 yard rusher in Justin Fargas, it was just assumed that McFadden's talent would get him significant playing time, if not the starting job.  
 
That obviously hasn't happened as he only has 70 carries through 11 weeks of the season.  I was pessimistic on McFadden's chances and even I predicted "four or five 100+ yard games and six to seven really poor games".  So I guess that makes my prediction half-right.  
 
The main problem isn't the Raiders' refusal to give McFadden carries, though that's obviously not helping.  The main problem is that the Raiders are terrible this year and they'll probably be terrible next year.  The offensive line is a disaster that will take more than one off-season to fix.  Even though JaMarcus Russell has become a walking justification for a rookie salary cap, the Raiders would struggle with the cap hit they'd incur if they dumped him off.   That doesn't mean they won't do it though. 

Bringing in a new rookie (Matthew Stafford?  Graham Herrell?) or a high-priced free agent (Matt Cassel?) is the type of crazy thing Al Davis might do anyway, but that still won't fix the problem as the new QB doesn't have anybody to catch the damn ball.  The Raiders' leading receiver is TE Zach Miller with 430 yards, good for 51st in the league.  In fact, out of the Top 155 receivers in the league, only two of them are Raiders.   Unless Al Davis has some Madden Cheat Code-like ability to get Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings and Wes Welker all into Silver and Black next season, a new quarterback isn't going to be enough.
 
Which brings me to the point of this post.  Depending on the rules of your keeper league, I don't think Darren McFadden is worth keeping for next season.   If you have the ability to take him and stash him away for four years then go for it.  But if you need to spend a precious keeper slot on somebody that's expected to carry (or at least not kill) your team next year, then I don't see how you can keep McFadden.  I don't see any reason to expect the Raiders will give McFadden 20+ carries a game next season and I don't see any reason to expect the required QB-WR-OL changes that are needed even if they do.  Maybe your team is so tragic that McFadden is your best choice, but there are likely better keeper options for next year than Darren McFadden.

The Steelers face-off against the very impressive New York Giants running game. Imagining sitting RB Brandon Jacobs given his efforts the past three weeks - 5 TDs and 272 yards - is tough to do, but he didn't receive more than 17 carries in any of those games. If the Steelers rush defense holds, don't be surprised to see a 15/40 game from Jacobs.

A bigger test will come for the Tampa Bay rush defense. It will get a 20+ carries dose of Marion Barber III as the Cowboys try to adapt to the weak-armed Brad Johnson at QB. While a 23/75 yard effort wouldn't surprise me given the Bucs ranking, I would not be surprised to see Barber go for 100+ yards as the Bucs defense has allowed 100+ rushing yards in five of its seven games. Having a 28- and 40-yard effort for the other two does wonders for averages in small samples.

It should go without saying that fantasy teams err on the side of sitting their RBs against the Baltimore Ravens. This week the Raiders will try to do what no team has done this year - rush for more than 76 yards as a team. I don't think any Raiders' RB will have a meaningful fantasy game. Rookie Darren McFadden aggravated his turf toe this week - not that it hasn't already hampered him. The Ravens' defense can more easily focus on Justin Fargas as a result.

The Ravens defense has been vulnerable to the pass in its past two games allowing 258 and 288 yards respectively. The question is whether QB JaMarcus Russell can take advantage of what Drew Brees and Chad Pennington saw.

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Here's the second part of my review of this year's rookie running backs. Part 1 can be found here.

Two Stars
 
Darren McFadden, Oak - He was considered the best rookie running back prospect coming into the season, but so far he hasn't come close to that title. He had a huge 21 carry, 164 yard performance in Week 2, but has totaled less than 140 yards total in the four games since then.  He also has had fewer than nine carries in each of the past three games.  There's no way for him to succeed if the Raiders just don't use him.  That may change under new coach Tom Cable, but the early signs are that the Raiders are going back to Justin Fargas so it's just more fantasy chaos from the Raiders.  Things don't look like they're going to get better for McFadden owners this season.
 
Kevin Smith, Det - Considering the Lions have been terrible so far, and considering the Lions don't give him enough carries (only one game with more than ten carries), Jones is doing relatively well.  His 4.9 yds/carry average and touchdowns in two of the past three games are positives. However, you don't want to hear about positives if your fantasy team is losing because you had been counting on him.  Has a lot of potential upside for the second half, but right now he's unreliable for your fantasy team.   The best you (and the city of Detroit) can hope for is for a coaching change.  Very soon.  Please hurry.
 
One Star
 
Tim Hightower, Arz - He's a touchdown machine (five TDs in six games) but not much else.  In larger leagues, that's enough.  He's a gamble every week, but if Edge goes down Hightower will be a fantasy star in every league. 
 
Felix Jones, Dal - He was shaping up as a nice flex option before his injury, especially in leagues that score for kick/punt returns.   As long as the Cowboys don't panic and rush him back too soon, he should be  productive for the rest of the year. 
 
 
Zero Stars
 
Jamaal Charles, KC - He hasn't done anything yet, but with Larry Johnson benched/suspended/overpaid for the rest of the season, there's a very good chance Charles may have the starting job some time soon.  He's a guy to grab now if he's still available in your league.
 
Ray Rice, Bal - There were reports in the offseason that Rice was looking so impressive the Ravens were considering cutting Willis McGahee and handing the starting job to Rice. Eh, not seeing it.  A 3.0 yd/carry average isn't going to impress anybody.  Barring a McGahee injury (which, now that I think about it, is almost inevitable) he won't have any fantasy value.
 
Rashard Mendenhall, Pit - He was damn unlucky picking up a season-ending injury right before Willie Parker did, but to be honest he didn't look that great before the injury.

Q: How well does rookie RB Darren McFadden follow-up his 160-yard effort?

A: Hobbled with a toe injury, McFadden ran for thrirteen fewer yards than 3rd-string RB Michael Bush did, 42 to 55.  He did catch three passes to Bush's one, though.  Complicating the conclusion that the toe caused the reduced production relative to Bush is the fact the Bills' defense is very good and has nothing to fear from the Raiders' passing game - Johnnie Lee Higgins 84-yard TD reception notwithstanding.

Q: How well does Bills' RB Fred Jackson do?

A: Like a back-up RB and not like an integral member of a RBBC.  He had five carries and one reception.  While I never thought Jackson would eat into Marshawn Lynch's carries, I was curious whether FJax would take away possible receptions.  No need to worry.  Lynch caught four balls.

Buy Low Fantasy Player: WR Lee Evans.  He has zero TDs through three games and his QB Trent Edwards garners no fantasy attention.  As a result, his 81.3 average yards per game and 20.3 YPC have been ignored.

Mock Draft Central has run five expert mock drafts for the 2008 fantasy football season. Fake Teams particpated in the final one on Monday night (August 18th). The first was held on April 28th. What I wanted to do was compare the first and last expert draft and determine which way the most intense fantasy football winds were blowing when it comes to fantasy football draft thinking.

A look at the Top 20 Decliners shows 16 RBs with Green Bay Packers' RB Ryan Grant falling from the 6th overall selection to the end of the 2nd round at #22. Oakland Raiders' Rb Darren McFadden fell from the mid-second round to the 1st selection in the 6th. Did either of these backs deserve that kind of disrespect? As a matter of fact, why so many RBs declining so much?

Taking a look at the Top 20 Improvers shows hints at what was going on. 11 of these players were WRs, 3 were TEs and two were QBs. That coincidentally equals 16. Apparently, what the running game lost was made-up in a greater emphasis on the passing game. This makes some sense given the proliferation of RBBC, but why wouldn't the late April experts know this? That is a question I can't answer.

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Week One of the NFL Pre-Season is almost complete.  With the first teamers barely playing, definitive conclusions are not possible, but here are some notable stats that offer something to watch in Week Two.

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Previous posts: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3  - Tier 4

This fifth tier covers the last of the guys that you can be reasonably confident in.  If you drafted a QB in the first round or just had to have Randy Moss in the second, you might be looking at one of these guys as your RB1.  In that case don't panic -- you'll be fine.  Probably.  In alphabetical order:

Reggie Bush, NO – Reggie Bush is a favorite topic of mine, so he gets his own post.

Earnest Graham, TB – Graham came off the bench to replace the injured Cadillac Williams to finish with 898 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns.  Very impressive considering he only started ten games.  His receiving skills are also excellent – 49 catches for 324 yards are worth a lot of points in PPR leagues.  The Bucs signed Graham to a new four-year contract and Cadillac will likely start the season on the PUP list, so it should be full speed ahead for Earnest Graham.  I said it SHOULD be, but since these are the Buccaneers nothing is simple.  They signed Warrick Dunn as a third-down back and even drafted rookie Cory Boyd this spring.  Graham sits in Tier 5 because I’m worried the Bucs will mix and match starting RBs all season.  If they commit to Graham, he’s worth much more.

Brandon Jacobs, NYG – Jacobs was touted as a future stud last season and he didn’t really live up to that hype.  He had a good season -- 1009 rushing yards is solid – but the lack of touchdowns (four) kept him from being all that.  His health was also an issue as he missed five games.  I have him rated this low because of the way the Giants successfully split time between Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw during the playoffs.  Bradshaw was released by the Giants, but Derrick Ward is still around and he swiped 125 carries last season in only eight games.  The Giants proved they can win with a lot of different RBs last year; I’m worried they’ll plan to do it again this year. 

Laurence Maroney, NE – Maroney also gets a special post later.

Darren McFadden, Oak – McFadden was touted as the best running back in the draft by some pundits, but he lands in a tough situation in Oakland.  The passing game led by JaMarcus Russell will be spotty (to say the least) and McFadden is trying to take carries away from 1000 yard rusher and fan-favorite Justin Fargas.  I expect McFadden to get the majority of carries in the offense, but Fargas and Michael Bush will get a healthy share as well.  There is a chance for an Adrian Peterson-type of super breakout here and McFadden sits in Tier 5 based mostly on that potential. 

Oakland Raiders WR1 Javon Walker was found unconscious on a Las Vegas street yesterday.  Unlike most people found unconscious on a Las Vegas street at 7 in the morning, he was apparently the victim of a violent robbery.  

Police spokesman Bill Cassell said in a statement that Walker was taken to a hospital with "significant injuries" after being found early Monday on a street off the Las Vegas Strip.

 

Cassell said Walker remained in fair condition at Sunrise Hospital and Medical Center.

 

A Raiders spokesman said the team was "in the process of gathering information" and had no further comment.

 

Walker signed a six-year, $55 million deal with the Raiders after being released by the Denver Broncos in February.

Hopefully Walker’s injuries are less serious than originally believed and that he recovers fully.  I realize that Walker may have serious injuries that go beyond whether or not he can play football, but this is a fantasy sports blog so I’m going to go there.

If Walker misses any time this season, the Raiders are in (even more) serious trouble.  The Raiders paid Walker a lot of money to be the veteran receiver that the inexperienced JaMarcus Russell needs to develop.   You can argue about whether or not Walker is right for that position, but he’s the guy they have and the Raiders have nobody else even close to being able to replace him.  The underwhelming Ronald Curry and the former Panther Drew Carter are the only WRs on the roster with more than two years in the league.  I don’t care how good Darren McFadden is supposed to be, he’s not going to be a success if opposing defenses can practically ignore the passing game.  

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders were suddenly in the market for a veteran wide receiver.  Stay tuned.  

(Wow, this new Fake Teams is something else, huh?  I'm still getting used to it myself.  I think this is going to be great)

You have to hand it to the Raiders, they do things their own way.  Despite having not one, not two, but three former 1000 yard rushers on their roster, the Raiders decided that what they really needed was to draft a running back. 

 It’s that kind of thinking that brings Darren McFadden (4^th overall) to the Silver and Black this season.  The Raiders have already cut Dominic Rhodes and it wouldn’t be surprising if they traded or cut LaMont Jordan as well.  That leaves McFadden to share time with Justin Fargas, with a little bit of Michael Bush (remember him?) thrown in.

 McFadden’s situation in Oakland is similar to Adrian Peterson’s situation in Minnesota last year, so that’s a good guide when trying to figure out his fantasy value. 

 - McFadden has a solid offensive line, but worse than Minnesota’s was last year.   

 - He has a young, unproven quarterback, but younger and more unproven than Tarvaris Jackson was. 

 - The Raiders have a poor receiving corps (Javon Walker, Ronald Curry, Drew Carter), but it’s probably a little bit better than Minnesota had last season. 

 - He has a veteran running back ahead of him who knows the offense and will get a share of the carries

 Overall, I think McFadden is in a poorer situation than Peterson was in his rookie year, and so McFadden’s highs won’t be quite as high.  Peterson had six 100+ rushing yard games, including two 200+ rushing yard games.  He also had seven games with 70 or fewer rushing yards.  I expect McFadden to finish with similar but more moderate stats – four or five 100+ yard games and six to seven really poor games. 

 McFadden will be tough guy to project in fantasy football drafts.  If you draft him, you have to realize that for 40-50% of the season he could be a weekly bust.   I would be very worried if I had to start the fantasy season with McFadden as my RB1.

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