Running Backs To Watch: Michael Turner, Julius Jones, Derrick Ward
Everybody who's not used to a full season as the starter, raise your hand. Falcons' RB Michael Turner is averaging only 3.9 yds per carry over the past four games and only has one TD in that time. It looks like Jerious Norwood will be seeing more playing time, but I've said that about 87 times over the past few seasons so who knows. Turner is definitely slowing down though.
Among RBs with 100 or more attempts this season, the three worst yard per carry averages belong to Fred Taylor (3.476), Edgerrin James (3.491) and Jamal Lewis (3.551). That's not too surprising, each of them are older than some Supreme Court justices. The next two worst guys are surprising though -- Marshawn Lynch (3.558) and Ryan Grant (3.613). That stat doesn't bode well for their performance for the rest of the season as they -- and their offensive line -- begins to tire.
Giants' backup Derrick Ward is a Top 20 running back in rushing yards this season (OK, he's 20th, but still) and has received 10+ carries in four of the last five games.
It's only a small sign, but Seattle RB Julius Jones had a decent game on Sunday, rolling up 88 yards on 16 carries. He had only 92 rushing yards in the previous three games combined. The 'Hawks have a good matchup against the Cardinals this week where Jones could have another not-terrible game. If you've put him on your bench and forgotten him, he's worth a shot this week.
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Week Six Answers: Green Bay Packers 27 Seattle Seahawks 17
Q: Will RB Ryan Grant carry the offensive load?
A: Grant did carry the offensive load with 33 carries. Unfortunately, he couldn't break 100 yards or score a TD. Nor did a catch a pass for the 5th time in six games. He had 30 receptions last season. While his rushing has been poor, it is the complete drop-off in his receiving that is more disappointing.
Q: With RB Maurice Morris back, how far does RB Julius Jones production fall?
A: Not very much, but the Seahawks were so bad, one can't realy tell anything at all. Back-up QB Charlie Frye filled-in for Matt Hasselbeck and attempted 23 passes for a 3.6 YPA. Jones rushed for 3.7 YPC.
At this time, there isn't a single player on the Seattle Seahawks who should be starting. Frye kills what little value Hasselbeck was able to realize from the wide receivers, and the offense will be so bad that none of the RBs can be expected to be productive from a fantasy perspective. I am surprised to have been so prescient about the Seahawks' season.
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Week Five Answers: Atlanta Falcons 27 Green Bay Packers 24
Q: Is RB Michael Turner a poor road performer or just a RB who can't get things going against good rush defenses?
A: The latter. What shocks me is the mainstream fantasy media was all over Turner as a poor road performer without considering the quality of defense he faced. His performance was acceptable in all formats, but the lack of receptions handicaps him in PPR formats when he faces the better rush defenses.
Q: Will RB Ryan Grant carry the offense without QB Aaron Rodgers?
A: The is unaswerable and Aaron Rodgers got the start and threw for 300+ and 3 TDs to lead the Green Bay packers' near comeback. Grant did have his best game of the year, though. Whehter 83 yards against the Atlanta Falcons defense is enough is another story.
Fantasy Player To Trade: WR Roddy White. Coming off his third consectuive 90+ yard receving game, there is little doubt that his 2007 was for real. He was likely drafted in the 5th round and now should get 3rd round value.
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The Ten Worst Rush Defenses
The slate of RBs who face awful rush defenses is a long one - Houston Texan Steve Slaton, Carolina Panthers D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, San Francisco 49er Frank Gore, Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcon Michael Turner, Green Bay Packer Ryan Grant, Indianapolis Colt Joseph Addai, whoever starts for the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboy's Marion Barber III. This is not the week for your team to be weak because of byes.
One question that will be answered this weekend is whether Falcons' RB Michael Turner can't run against good defenses or can only run effectively at home. His two horrible games were on the road and against good defenses. My guess is it is the good run defenses that cause him problems.
The Falcons/Packers game also offers RB Ryan Grant the chance to have a good game as the Falcons can't stop the run. if he can't run well in this game, then it is time to grab his back-ups and expect a demotion.
The Ten Worst Rush Defenses:
| Rank | Team | RYA | Vs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Indianapolis | 208 | @HOU |
| 31 | Kansas City | 193.3 | @CAR |
| 30 | St. Louis | 185.3 | BYE |
| 29 | New England | 160 | @SF |
| 28 | Detroit | 152.5 | CHI |
| 27 | Atlanta | 151.7 | @GB |
| 26 | Green Bay | 148 | ATL |
| 25 | Houston | 146.5 | IND |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 142.7 | @DAL |
| 23 | San Francisco | 129.7 | NE |
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Week Three Answers: Dallas Cowboys 27 Green Bay Packers 16
Q: Can the Dallas offense be stopped?
A: Apparently not. If Tony Romo is hitting Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton, he finds Miles Austin for two deep strikes. RB Marion Barber III has been the best RB so far this season and is playing himself into a Top 3 RB in next year's fantasy football drafts.
Q: After two solid weeks, does QB Aaron Rodgers come back to Earth?
A: Sort of. He did not throw a TD pass, but he did throw for 290 yards, no INTs, and ran in a score. If this ranks as a letdown, sign me up. Rodgers is a Top 10 QB right now.
Buy Low Fantasy Player: RB Ryan Grant. Obtaining starting RBs is difficult via trade once the season begins. However, Grant's early struggles have likely made him available. Titans' RB Chris Johnson could get him.
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The Best Fantasy Player And Fantasy Football Sleeper: Green Bay Packers
This is Brandon from Acme Packing Company, the SBNation's Green Bay Packers blog, and I've got my fantasy football sleeper and stud column for you.
While the Packers aren't in an elite fantasy class like Indianapolis' offense, their starters are all quality fantasy options that should be at least on the roster in every league, if not starting. Plus K Mason Crosby and the Packers defense should be solid fantasy options too. Should I risk an all-Packer lineup for my fantasy team?
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Fantasy Football Draft Trends
Mock Draft Central has run five expert mock drafts for the 2008 fantasy football season. Fake Teams particpated in the final one on Monday night (August 18th). The first was held on April 28th. What I wanted to do was compare the first and last expert draft and determine which way the most intense fantasy football winds were blowing when it comes to fantasy football draft thinking.
A look at the Top 20 Decliners shows 16 RBs with Green Bay Packers' RB Ryan Grant falling from the 6th overall selection to the end of the 2nd round at #22. Oakland Raiders' Rb Darren McFadden fell from the mid-second round to the 1st selection in the 6th. Did either of these backs deserve that kind of disrespect? As a matter of fact, why so many RBs declining so much?
Taking a look at the Top 20 Improvers shows hints at what was going on. 11 of these players were WRs, 3 were TEs and two were QBs. That coincidentally equals 16. Apparently, what the running game lost was made-up in a greater emphasis on the passing game. This makes some sense given the proliferation of RBBC, but why wouldn't the late April experts know this? That is a question I can't answer.
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Fantasy Football Preview - Ryan Grant
What a season Ryan Grant had last year. After the Packers plucked him off the trash heap of the Giants’ practice squad, Grant muscled his way into the starting role and finished with a fantastic 956 rushing yard, 8 rushing touchdown season. Hey, I love that as much as anybody, but who is this guy? How did he do it?
Then again, if Favre actually returns at QB, it's a $1-Longnecks-No-Cover-For-The-Ladies type of party all year long for Grant. In that case, Grant should be a second round steal.
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