Ten Worst Rushing Defenses
Clinton Portis of the Washington Redskins will miss this rematch with the Dallas Cowboys. That is too bad as the Cowboys have ranked as one of the worst ten rush defenses over its past three games. However, this match-up bodes well for RB Ladell Betts who is returning from an MCL injury and who wouldn't surprise if he does a Kevin Smith imitation at worst (40-60 yards rushing with a TD and 3 and 30 receiving.)
Seeing the Cincinnati Bengals on the favorable end of the rushing match-up gets ideas of Cedric Benson starting. Could he possibly repeat his 100+ yard effort of a couple weeks ago? Maybe, but his team would have to keep the game close, and the Philadelphia Eagles should be able to score enough points to keep the Bengals playing catch-up. But just the thought of starting Cedric Benson was unthinkable until very recently.
Michael Turner faces the Denver Broncos' rush defense and should be good for 100+ yards and a TD or two. Given the prolific nature of the Broncos passing game, the Falcons will have every reason to run the ball to keep the clock moving. As a result, Jerious Norwood could even find himself with 100 total yards.
Ten Worst Rushing Defenses:
| Rank | Team | RYA | Vs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Oakland | 202 | @MIA |
| 31 | Denver | 164 | @ATL |
| 30 | St. Louis | 160.3 | @SF |
| 29 | Green Bay | 157 | CHI |
| 28 | Detroit | 148.7 | @CAR |
| 27 | Houston | 148 | @IND |
| 25 | Cleveland | 143 | @BUF |
| 25 | Dallas | 143 | @WAS |
| 24 | Philadelphia | 127.3 | @CIN |
| 23 | New Orleans | 122 | @KC |
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Running Backs To Watch: Michael Turner, Julius Jones, Derrick Ward
Everybody who's not used to a full season as the starter, raise your hand. Falcons' RB Michael Turner is averaging only 3.9 yds per carry over the past four games and only has one TD in that time. It looks like Jerious Norwood will be seeing more playing time, but I've said that about 87 times over the past few seasons so who knows. Turner is definitely slowing down though.
Among RBs with 100 or more attempts this season, the three worst yard per carry averages belong to Fred Taylor (3.476), Edgerrin James (3.491) and Jamal Lewis (3.551). That's not too surprising, each of them are older than some Supreme Court justices. The next two worst guys are surprising though -- Marshawn Lynch (3.558) and Ryan Grant (3.613). That stat doesn't bode well for their performance for the rest of the season as they -- and their offensive line -- begins to tire.
Giants' backup Derrick Ward is a Top 20 running back in rushing yards this season (OK, he's 20th, but still) and has received 10+ carries in four of the last five games.
It's only a small sign, but Seattle RB Julius Jones had a decent game on Sunday, rolling up 88 yards on 16 carries. He had only 92 rushing yards in the previous three games combined. The 'Hawks have a good matchup against the Cardinals this week where Jones could have another not-terrible game. If you've put him on your bench and forgotten him, he's worth a shot this week.
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Week Six Answers: Chicago Bears 20 Atlanta Falcons 22
Q: Can QB Kyle Orton have another great passing game against a weak Falcons defense?
A: "Great" may have been too high a bar to set. Kyle Orton threw for 286 yards and a TD without tossing an INT. He missed "greatness" by a TD. But he has four consectuive good/great games. Look for continued performances like this to make his receving weapons "fantasy-viable."
Q: Is it home-cooking or poor defenses for RB Michael Turner?
A: A 2.2 YPC in 25 carries answers, "Poor defenses." As I have pointed out previously, Turner doesn't catch passes so this poor rushing effort has nowhere else to go for additional support. As an example, look at Dallas Cowboys' RB Marion Barber III. He had just 45 yards rushing (4 pts), but caught eleven passes for 128 yards and a TD (18-34 points depending on format).
Fantasy Player To Watch: WR Devan Hester. After disappointing for the first month, note the recent efforts He has 11 receptions, 153 yards and a TD in the past two games.
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Who To Start? Miami Dolphin Ronnie Brown Or Atlanta Falcon Michael Turner
This week the Atlanta Falcons host the Chicago Bears. Last week, Falcons' RB, and the NFL's leading rusher, Michael Turner proved the pundits wrong when he ran for 127 yards on the road. This week he gets to prove the pundits who think he can't rush against good defense wrong rather than just being a home field creation.
Ronnie Brown is coming off two consectuive 100+ yards rushing games as the Miami Dolphins head to Houston to face the Texans. With Brown having become the focal point of the offense, he looks to be back to the level he established last season before blowing out his knee.
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Week Five Answers: Atlanta Falcons 27 Green Bay Packers 24
Q: Is RB Michael Turner a poor road performer or just a RB who can't get things going against good rush defenses?
A: The latter. What shocks me is the mainstream fantasy media was all over Turner as a poor road performer without considering the quality of defense he faced. His performance was acceptable in all formats, but the lack of receptions handicaps him in PPR formats when he faces the better rush defenses.
Q: Will RB Ryan Grant carry the offense without QB Aaron Rodgers?
A: The is unaswerable and Aaron Rodgers got the start and threw for 300+ and 3 TDs to lead the Green Bay packers' near comeback. Grant did have his best game of the year, though. Whehter 83 yards against the Atlanta Falcons defense is enough is another story.
Fantasy Player To Trade: WR Roddy White. Coming off his third consectuive 90+ yard receving game, there is little doubt that his 2007 was for real. He was likely drafted in the 5th round and now should get 3rd round value.
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The Ten Worst Rush Defenses
The slate of RBs who face awful rush defenses is a long one - Houston Texan Steve Slaton, Carolina Panthers D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, San Francisco 49er Frank Gore, Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcon Michael Turner, Green Bay Packer Ryan Grant, Indianapolis Colt Joseph Addai, whoever starts for the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboy's Marion Barber III. This is not the week for your team to be weak because of byes.
One question that will be answered this weekend is whether Falcons' RB Michael Turner can't run against good defenses or can only run effectively at home. His two horrible games were on the road and against good defenses. My guess is it is the good run defenses that cause him problems.
The Falcons/Packers game also offers RB Ryan Grant the chance to have a good game as the Falcons can't stop the run. if he can't run well in this game, then it is time to grab his back-ups and expect a demotion.
The Ten Worst Rush Defenses:
| Rank | Team | RYA | Vs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Indianapolis | 208 | @HOU |
| 31 | Kansas City | 193.3 | @CAR |
| 30 | St. Louis | 185.3 | BYE |
| 29 | New England | 160 | @SF |
| 28 | Detroit | 152.5 | CHI |
| 27 | Atlanta | 151.7 | @GB |
| 26 | Green Bay | 148 | ATL |
| 25 | Houston | 146.5 | IND |
| 24 | Cincinnati | 142.7 | @DAL |
| 23 | San Francisco | 129.7 | NE |
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Week Four Answers: Atlanta Falcons 9 Carolina Panthers 24
Q: Does RB Michael Turner have a good game?
A: No, he does not. With just 56 yards on 18 carries and a catch for -1 yards in a close game, this can't be considered any other way. When Turner faces awful defenses, he shines brighter than Barack Obama at a MSNBC programming meeting. When the defense is decent, Turner is Sarah Palin at a National Organization of Women fundraiser.
Q: Does WR Steve Smith have a big game or will RBs D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart lead the team?
A: Smith had a big game with 6 receptions, 96 yards and a TD, but his current, and former, teammate Muhsin Muhammad had a bigger game with 8 catches, 147 yards and a TD. These twin efforts didn't mean the Panthers didn't run well, though, Williams and Stewart combined for 109 yards split nearly in half with Stewart getting the TD.
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Week Three Answers: Kansas City Chiefs 14 Atlanta Falcons 38
Q: Will RB Larry Johnson be productive?
A: After whining about his usage, Larry Johnson produced when his number was called (unlike the previous two games.) He rushed for a 121 yards and a TD on 24 carries. Unfortunately, it was not enough to provide some comfort for QB Tyler Thigpen who completed just 14 of 36 passes - none of which went to Larry Johnson. Rookie RB Jamaal Charles did catch three, though.
Q: Can RB Michael Turner settle nicely somewhere between his Week One performance and his Week Two one?
A: Oh, yeah. 104 yards and 3 TDs on 23 carries is all anyone could hope for. Heck, if he had just a single TD, it would have been enough. He did not catch any passes out of the backfield, though. That limits his value somewhat as the Falcons' offense is not built to pass.
Buy Low Fantasy Player: TE Tony Gonzalez. While he has caught 15 passes in three games, his 129 yards will suppress his value. Who doesn' think a TE averging 43 yards a game isn't fungible?
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NFL Week Three: Top 10 Worst Rush Defenses
This is what fantasy footballers want! Which of my RBs have the best chances of going for 100+ yards and a TD or two. Here are the worst rush defenses in the NFL through the first two weeks. IF Atlanta Falcons' RB Michael Turner doesn't crack the 100-yard barrier against a porous kansas City Chiefs' rush defense, then Week one will be forgotten.
Despite a broken offensive line, who doesn't think Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't have a good-to-great week against a poor Colts' pass rush that is without its heart and soul, Bob Sanders?
Ten Worst Rush Defenses:
| Rank | Team | RYA |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Detroit | 220.5 |
| 31 | Kansas City | 213 |
| 30 | Cincinnati | 203 |
| 29 | Houston | 183 |
| 28 | Indianapolis | 181.5 |
| 27 | St. Louis | 154 |
| 26 | New Orleans | 147.5 |
| 25 | San Diego | 143.5 |
| 24 | Cleveland | 142 |
| 23 | San Francisco | 139 |
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Week Two Answers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Atlanta Falcons 9
Q: How well will the Falcons run the ball?
A: Not very well. Week One's rushing star, Michael Turner, had 42 yards and 14 carries and a reception for six more. He hurt an ankle, but even his back-up, Jerious Norwood, managed just 18 yards on six carries and another eight on a reception.
Whether the Falcons would have been more effective if the team had a lead is hard to determine given the team may not have too many unless rookie QB Matt Ryan can be more effective than the 13 for 33 he produced. Until then, I won't be surprised to see the Falcons' running game struggle all season long.
Fantasy Player To Watch: RB Warrick Dunn. He continues to defy Father Time. Without a clearcut #2 wide receiver, Dunn could see 3-5 pass receptions per week to go with his 10 carries. In that case, he could be good for 10 points in PPR formats for the desparate fantasy owner.
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