What looked like a slow season for closer churn at the half way point is about to change.  Pittsburgh Pirates' closer Matt Capps was disabled by a shoulder injury that will keep him out for two months.  This gives Damaso Marte and Tyler Yates the chance to be the latest Saves to be plucked from the free agent pool.  Given Marte is a lefty and Yates has terrible peripherals, the opportunity exists for a third unrostered Pirates reliever to get saves.

Cleveland Indians brass is meeting today to discuss their own closer sitatuion (and likely raising the white flag and trading C.C. Sabthia).  Closer Joe Borowski has been awful since returning from a triceps injury on May 24th.  Over 13 appearances, he has pitched 12.7 innings and allowed six earned runs, 17 hits, walked four and struck out just six.  He is 4-6 in Save Opportunities with a distressing .42 GB/FB ratio.

To me, this looks like the same pitcher who has been unthreatened in his role.  In his absence, Rafael Betancourt saved four games before ceding the job to Masahide Kobayashi who saved two before JoBo's return.  He has since notched a couple more saves and looks like the next in line if the Indians remove JoBo or, better yet, trade him to a contender.

Previous to Matt Capps' injury, there had been just three closers who lost their jobs this season and two who had lost it due to injury.  Jason Isringhausen of the St. Louis Cardinals has ceded the role to Ryan Franklin, Eric Gagne lost it to Salomon Torres in Milwaukee, and Manny corpas choked it up to Brian Fuentes in Colorado.  J.J. Putz has temporarily given the closer job to Brandon Morrow as he deals with elbow issues in Seattle, and Rafael Soriano has coughed up the Atlanta Braves' closer job to a line of relievers.

Over the past several seasons, closer turnover has been in the 40% range meaning 12 teams have changed closers during the season.  This led many a fantasy player to lower the value of closers.  So far, that conclusion has not been helpful in fantasy strategies.

The issue isn't whether this can continue, it is whether the lack of closer churn has put those fantasy players who punt saves too far behind the pack to catch-up even if the churn increases over the remaining 75 games or so.

On June 10th, I find myself increasingly frustrated with my inability to select harmless middle relievers in 2008. That is difficult to admit as I have spent years grabbing relievers right before they become the closer. As the first step in trying to dispel my belief that projecting middle relief efforts are essentially random, I decided to take a look at the worst BABIPs for relievers who have thrown 15 or more relief innings this season without making any starts.

From this list of especially unlucky BABIP relievers, I see some familar, crooked-number-runs-and-hits-and-walks-allowing members of my pitching staffs - Rafael Betancourt (.400), Jason Grilli (.385), Jamie Walker (.404), Aaron Heilman (.341), and Russ Ohlendorf (.333). Those are four relievers who are in, or were in, the AL and on my team. Missing is Mariner's Left-handed BABIP nightmare Eric O'Flaherty who managed a .483 BABIP in just under seven innings of work. This seems to help explain the disaster that my AL-Only staff has suffered.

My NL-Only is a little harder to pinpoint though. Heilman did a lot of extra damage because I have Johan Santana and Oliver Perez which gave Heilman extra leverage to damage my team when he allowed their inherited runners to score. Despite that, the BABIPs of Manny Acosta (.277), Justin Miller (.314), Oscar Villareal (.233) don't really provide the comfort of blaming bad luck that the AL does.

Watching Joba Chamberlain pitch against the Kansas City Royals yesterday, I was vividly reminded of what I consider my worst trade of the season-to-date.  I dealt Jose Guillen for Cleveland Indians reliever Rafael Betancourt.  At the time, Betancourt was closing for the Indians, Joe Borowski wasn't yet pitching in minor league games and Jose Guillen was hitting .189 with 3 HR and 15 RBI.

I was aware I'd be selling Jose Guillen low.  After all he was given a three-year/$36MM contract and wasn't going to go anywhere but the everyday line-up to work out his issues.  Reports had Betancourt returning to the bullpen when Borowski returned, but I figured JoBo hadn't returned yet and Betancourt would remain a viable closing option in 2009 after JoBo's contract expires.

I am no longer sure of the second consideration.  Betancourt has been awful since I acquired him - 11.1 innings pitched, 12 earned runs and a 2.12 WHIP with zeros in the Wins and Saves columns.  Given he wasn't very good before that spell, I can see the Indians continuing down the Todd Jones Closer path the Tigers took.  Without a tested (and passed) 9th inning reliever, why wouldn't the Indians give JoBo a one-year deal for 2009?

With all trades there are two sides to successfully judging them.  What I acquired in the deal has not worked.  How about Jose Guillen for the other side? In fewer ABs than he had on my team, Guillen has hit 7 HRs, driven in 32 and hit .351.

Given I am OK with hitting, that wouldn't hurt so much, but I acquired Betancourt to also help my last- and next-to-last ratios.  Instead of helping stabilize those, Betancourt has helped keep them pegged at the bottom.

Anyway I slice this, Rafael Betancourt for Jose Guillen has been a miserable failure of a trade for me.   What has been your worst trade to date?

Pittsburgh Pirates CF Nate McLouth went 1-3 with three walks, his 11th HR and a stolen base.  How much of a fluke McLouth is right now is hard to determine, but since last year August, he has had 330 ABs and hit 21 HRs.  That extends McLouth's excellent first seven weeks by another eight.  He looks legitimate, no? 

Arizona Diamondback ace Brandon Webb moved to 9-0 on the season and now is the unanimous plus one choice for the NL Cy Young.  However, his 9th victory didn't exactly come against the "A" team of the Colorado Rockies.  Ryan Spillborghs in CF, Clint Barmes at SS, Jeff Baker at 3B and Javier Herrera at 2B is the kind of line-up that would even allow Justin Verlander to get a 2nd victory on the season.

The Yankees recalled SP Ian Kennedy to replace the awful Kei Igawa after just one start.  Kennedy allowed five runs in five innings yo increase his season ERA from 8.37 to 8.48.  Will this be the season the now-last-place Yankees do not rebound from a mediocre start?  At least their #3 hitter, Derek Jeter, collected a couple more singles.

Cleveland Indians reliever Rafeal Betancourt started the 9th inning to protect a 4-1 lead and proceeded to load the bases.  He was replaced by Masahide Kobayashi after loading the bases.  The closing failure in the Summer of '06 lloks to be more real than fluke for Betancourt.  Add him to the list of relievers who can't pitch effectively without the comfort of knowing their team will have a additional ABs to make-up for any mistakes made on the mound.

Philadelphia Phillies' 1B Ryan Howard hit his 9th HR last night.  In his last five plate appearances, he has homered twice and walked.  The chance to get Howard for 5th or 6th round value is quickly passing.