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Chris Duncan

#16 / Right Field / St. Louis Cardinals

6-5

230

L

R

May 05, 1981

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008 - Chris Duncan 76 222 26 55 8 0 6 27 34 52 2 1 .248 .346 .365

Alfonso Soriano Injury And Other Injury Implications

Over the past couple days, there have been a slew of significant injuries to fantasy studs - three 1st or 2nd round hitters and two top closers.  This roster destruction creates opportunity.  Here is a lst of those five along with where I see the fantasy opportunity.

C Victor Martinez Cleveland Indians -  VMart injured his elbow to compound the lingering hamstring injury he suffered on Opening Day.  Kelly Shoppach immediately becomes a John Buck-esque fantasy option - double digit pop with a .250ish AVG.


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Kelly Shoppach 31 80 10 18 4 0 3 7 4 27 0 0 .225 .279 .387


OF Alfonso Soriano Chicago Cubs - Soriano is back on the D.L. with a broken hand.  2B Mark DeRosa moves to the OF.  His near-.900 OPS means he is likely rostered in most leagues. 2B Mike Fontenot takes over for now.  If the Cubs decide to recall Eric Patterson, and play him, he could be a sleeper for cheap steals.


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Mark DeRosa 61 208 40 65 13 0 8 35 29 46 3 0 .313 .398 .490


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Mike Fontenot 51 88 16 21 7 0 2 12 12 16 2 0 .239 .337 .386


1B Albert Pujols St. Louis Cardinals - The season opened with fantasy players worrying about Pujols' elbow and now he has hit the D.L. with a strained calf.  Joe Mather and Chris Duncan are the main beneficiaries.  OF Ryan Ludwick is going to hit 3rd so he could see an uptick in RBIs if he continues to hit.


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Chris Duncan 48 131 20 33 5 0 4 16 22 32 1 1 .252 .357 .382


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Joe Mather 12 34 5 7 1 0 1 3 6 8 0 0 .206 .325 .324


Closer J.J. Putz Seattle Mariners - Putz was pulled mid-inning with right elbow pain.  Brandon Morrow took over and closed out the game.  he is the leader for saves, but be wary.  He had been shut down recently with a sore shoulder.  I can see the M's utilizing a committee to close games if Putz is out for a significant amount of time.


W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
2008 - Brandon Morrow 0-1 22 0 0 0 1 0 18.0 12 4 2 2 7 25 1.00 1.06


Closer Rafael Soriano Atlanta Braves - Want an idea of what the Mariners' save distribution could look like if Putz returns to the D.L.?  Look at the Braves.  Since Soriano went on the D.L. on April 7th, more than two months ago, Manny Acosta leads the Braves in Saves with three.  Soriano returned from the D.L. two weeks ago, he notched two saves.  Four other players have a save.  Expect Mike Gonzalez to return from the D.L. and Tommy John surgery and immediately become the seventh Braves relieve rto notch a save.


W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
2008 - Manny Acosta 3-4 32 0 0 0 3 2 32.2 33 20 16 7 15 22 4.41 1.47


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Albert Pujols To The D.L.: Will The St. Louis Cardinals Falter?

Derek Gould of the St. Louis Dispatch told Charlie Steiner on his XM Radio show, "Baseball Beat", that Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols will go on the D.L. on Thursday when SP Joel Piniero is activated.  1B/OF Chris Duncan will be recalled tonight to take SP Adam Wainwright's roster spot.

This offers an interesting test of the surprising Cardinals' mettle.  With a player of Pujols power and patience, the surrounding hitters will always be the lesser threats.  One wonders how the second-tier of Cardinals hitters will react when they become the opposing teams' top worries.

Does Ryan Ludwick's new-found ability to take walks continue?  (He has walked 23 times in 192 ABS versus 26 in 303 last season.)  Does anyone else (Troy Glaus, Ludwick, Duncan,  Skip Schumaker ) become less selective in their new roles of greater offensive responsibility? 

What is interesting is the Cards rank 3rd in MLB in team OBP with Pujols.  Ex-Pujols, the team OBP drops to .340.  More telling is a team SLG that is 11th in MLB drops to 20th without Pujols.  My calculations are rough (no HBP & SFs included), but I think those will be offset by the assumption that the figures assume static data and not dynamic ones.

Another interesting story to follow is how manager Tony LaRussa fills 1B?  Will he put Chris Duncan there or will he play the hitter who displaced him, Joe Mather?  One would think Mather would get the first shot at full-time ABs given he took Duncan's spot, but one can never discount the "veteran" experience - and the presence of a parent on the coaching staff.

Here is what Baseball America had to say about Joe Mather in its 2008 Prospect Handbook .  He was ranked 13th in the Cards organization.

Mather reached Class A in 2004, and for three seasons and more than 1,000 ABs, he stayed at that level, wondering each spring if he was making progress or about to be released. Cardinals officials recognized the potential in his swing, and in 2007 he blossomed. He hit 31 HRs as he climbed to Double-A and then Triple-A. Mather used to gobble ice cream and other high-calorie delights to pack weight on his lithe frame. By last year, he had filled out by 15 lbs and his game matured. Scouts saw the same raw ability in Mather, but they wondered if he would ever add the necessary polish. He put it together when he settled into a comfortable stance and approach at the plate, which led to better strike-sone awareness and more consistent power to all fields. He now has the best power in the system this side of Colby Rasmus, and he doesn't strike out excessively for a slugger. Mather is no burner but has stolen 23 bases without being caught over the last three seasons. He may be better at first base, but he runs well enough ans has enough athleticism and arm strength to play a corner outfield position. The versatility that once kept him playing while he struggled with the bat now opens an alternative avenue to the majors, and he's now just a phone call away. Added to the 40-man roster in Novemeber, he'll probably open 2008 in Triple-A.

Poll
How do you think the Cardinals will do without Pujols?
The kind of play people expected before the season.
24 votes
.500 ball
24 votes
Will keep playing .500+ baseball.
18 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

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