With the All-Star Break upon us, now is a good time to look at those players who have completely surprised.  These are players who have been in the majors for a while and have produced at levels not previously seen.  It is not a list of MVP candidates.

To me these are the Top Five Hitting Surprises of the 1st Half and the pertinent production.

1.  2B Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - 83 R .335 14 HR 23 SB
2.  CF Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates - 4th in R with 68, .902 OPS, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB
3.  RF J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox - .303 17 HR 55 RBI
4.  CF Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - 23 HR, 22 SB 54 RBI
5.  CF David Dejesus, Kansas City Royals - .307 10 HR 51 RBI 7 SB

Honorable Mentions:
CF BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays - 61 BB 27 SB.  Coming into 2008, he had an outside shot at 40/40 with the SB being the bigger if.  With 6 HRs, Upton looks like a stretch to go 20/40.
RF Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - 20 HR 64 RBI.  .818 OPS in 2007 vs a .954 in 2008.  Given he has produced somewhat similar power numbers this year as he did in 2007 in the same number of ABs, I didn't put him in the Top 5
1B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - .555 SLG 15 HR 63 RBI.  With a career .452 SLG, One wonders if the Semitic God of Walks has establoished a new level.  (Is "Semitic' more fair than "Greek" given Youkilis is Jewish and the proximity of Greece to Asia Minor?)

The biggest trade rumor to date that did not involve a starting pitcher is the one reported by Peter Gammons of ESPN.  Offered by the Atlanta Braves to the Boston Red Sox was free-agent-to-be 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Kevin Youkilis and AAA reliever Craig Hansen.  According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Red Sox Gm Theo Epstein denied it.

In the current trade market where soon-to-be free agents have their minimum value set against the potential draft picks the team would receive if the player was offered arbitration and signed with another team, this offer makes sense from the Braves point-of-view.  Kevin Youkilis is a Gold Glove caliber player at 1B and better than avergae at 3B.  He is a patient hitter with power.  Some could say if he switch hit, he'd be Mark Teixeira.  As a second-year arbitration player, the Braves have multiple seasons of control over Youkilis.  He is worth two draft picks

For the Red Sox, though, this offer falls painfully short.  Teixeira is a free agent and a client of Scott Boras.  He will test the market and cost the team that signs him $100MM plus their first round pick (assuming it is not in the Top 15 of the first round.)

The question is whether a 29-year-old switch-hitting 1B at $100MM for six years is a better investment than a 30-year-old 1B under control for two more years and $20MM?  (All salaries are guesses and ages are for the 2009 season.)

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With the recent news that Toronto Blue Jays' SP Shaun Marcum is suffering form nothing more than an elbow strain, I could begin to re-contemplate a trade offer I received just days before Marcum's disabling occurred. In an AL-Only 4x4 keeper league, I was offered Marcum in exchange for Red Sox 1B Kevin Youkilis.

I was favorably disposed to it based on comments I have heard that Marcum is for real. This went against my hesistance to acquire pitchers who come out of nowhere. Marcum's BABIP of .228 scares me into thinking I will be dealing a .300/25/100 hitter just as the pitcher blows-up.

Then Marcum was sent to the D.L., and A's RHP Justin Duchscherer wins his 8th game. I receive an offer of Duichscherer for Youkilis. Duchscherer has a less scary BABIP of .242 but has won 66% of his starts. If I need Wins, am I going to get Duchscherer right before he blows-up and stops getting Wins?

Those worries are exercerbated by Duchscherer's sub-90s fastball.  Can a right-handed pitcher with an unimpressive fastball continue to pitch like Pedro Martinez in his glory days?  Nevermind, Duchscherer's injury history.

Here are the stats of the three players with Ks and Runs struck through because this is a 4x4 league.  Am I over-thinking?  Too cautious?  Have I been indoctrinated by the mutual funds mantra that past results are no guarantee of future ones?

Rotojunkie  has taken over the dynamic feature started by Baseball Happenings that draws on the collective knowledge of the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues.  This week's AL voting should be available later today. 

Here is the way I voted.  My biases for voting in the Cy Young and MVP awards lean towards those hitters and pitchers playing on contending teams.  ROY determination is not tied are strongly to his team's record, but good rookies on expected paly-off contenders will get additional consideration.

AL Cy Young:
1.  Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
2.  Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels
3.  Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels

AL MVP:
1.  Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
2.  Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
3.  Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

AL ROY:
1.  Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2.  Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
3.  Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

How is it the team with the best record in the American League, The Tampa Bay Rays, only gets one player considered for one of the top three awards, and that only because the rookie class behind Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury is so weak?  I can't imagine the actual voters not "forcing" a Rays into the Top 3 in all the awards if the Rays make the play-offs.  The team will be the talk of the 2008 season, and the deisre to recognize it in the CY Young, MVP and Rookie-of-the-Year awards will be too strong to resist.

FOR ROY, Logoria is an easy choice to appear on the baseball writer's ballots.  My best guess would by CF B.J. Upton for MVP on the strength of his .400+ OBP and SBs total.  For Cy Young, James Shields would get the vote right now, but Scott Kazmir could get it if he remains in the rotation for the rest of the season.  He has already surpassed Shields in Wins for the season and is just 20 Ks behind him with 43.2 fewer innings pitched.

The 2008 baseball season is one third finished.  Here is a list of players that have had fantasy players pounding their fists in frustration for either passing on these guys in their drafts, auctions and free agent pools only to see them help their competitors rise above them in the standings.  And stubbornly refuse to return to the levels expected of them!

This is appropriately called the All-WTF Team.

C  Miguel Olivo:  Victor Martinez - zero HRs.  Joe Mauer - zero HRs.  Jorge Posada - on the D.L. with one HR.  Miguel Olivo?  6 HRs and a .303 AVG with 22 RBIs
Honorable mention: Mike Napoli - leading all catchers with 10 HRs and three SBs to boot!

1B  Lance Berkman - How does a second/early third round pick surprise?  The .381 AVG and 16 HRs don't raise eyebrows but 10 SBs?  No frickin' way anyone thought that was possible.  Previous season-high?  9 in 2004.
Honorable mention: Kevin Youkilis - Who was drafted earlier, Justin Morneau or The Greek God of Walks?  Both have 9 HRs and are hitting .306-ish.  Morneau has five more ribbies but Youkilis' two more SBs gives him the edge.

2B  Ian Kinsler:   A .294 AVG and 15 SBs?  Yeah sure.  You predicted that. Honorable mention: Dan Uggla - The power has always been there but a .307 AVG?  Right.  After he hit .245 last year.

SS  Jerry Hairston, Jr. - The inspiration for the WTF Team.  Most baseball pundits complained about Corey Patterson's OBP, but at least he had been productive over the past three seasons.  Hairston? He hit .206 in 2006 and an even worse .189 last season.  Now the 32-year-old is the starting SS with a a .345 AVG and 9 SBs?  WTF! Honorable mention: Christian Guzman:  Guzman hasn't hit 5 HRs in a full season since he clubbed eight in 2004.  Raise your hand if you took Guzman before Khalil Greene?  Both have 5 HRs.

3B  Blake DeWitt - Andy LaRoche has got to be pulling his hair out.  Nomar Garciaparra is officially wash-ed up.  Every other weak-hitting utility infielder Ned Colletti can find is hurt or no longer a viable 25th man, and DeWitt rises from a third of a AA season to hit .293/.366/.463.
Honorable mention: Jorge Cantu - Evan Longoria has seven HRs and a .252 AVG.  Cantu has seven HRs and a .268 AVG.  Is there anyone who didn't think Cantu's 2005 season wasn't a fluke that coincidentally never came close to re-appearing after MLB began PED testing and suspending?

OF  Ryan Ludwick - A 28-year-old righty hitter who had a career AVG of .218 versus lefties does not all of sudden turn into a 13 HR/ 39 RBI/.327 hitter after six seasons of journeyman status. Honorable mention: Nate McLouth
OF  Jayson Werth - similar to Ludwick in that he is a 29-year-old who has spent six years being a part-time playe.  With 9 HRs and seven SBs, he had a full-time job until he got huirt.  Again.
OF  Eric Hinske - Someone else who was written off as incapable of producing in the post-PED ERA.  The 31-year-old Hinske has 10 bombs and has made the Rays one of the best teams in the American League with a versatility that recalls the days of 20+ HR utility man Tony Phillips.
Honorable mentions: Xavier Nady - The 29-year-old Nady set career highs in ABs, HRs and RBIs last year with 431, 20 and 72 respectively.  Now he's hitting .321 with 9 HRs and 42 RBIs.
Nate McLouth - He spent his first three seasons bouncing from a .257 AVg to .233 back to .258.  Yeah, you thought he'd be hitting .311 right now with 12 HRs.
Carlos Quentin - A sleeper for many given the weak OF options the White Sox have used over the past couple seasons, but no one thought he'd be a leading candidate for the AL MVP.  Certainly not Arizona Diamondbacks' GM Josh Byrnes who gave a 31-year-old Eric Byrnes a three-year contract to play Quentin's position and then dealt him for a Low A 1B this past winter 

There has certainly been an outage of offense in the American League this season. The questions of why and for how long remain unanswered. Here is a list of the Top 3 players by position using Baseball Prospectus' VORP statistic. Note how much difference there is just between the top player and the third-best one. This would lead me to believe a Stars & Scrubs versus a balance approach may be the best fantasy strategy. Agree?

Also, note how poorly the OF VORP leaders due relative to the other position players. The top VORP is lower. This supports the contention that the OF is "shallow" relative to the other positions. However, the drop-off is not as dramatic. There could be more depth in the OF relative to other positions. This supports a strategy that focuses on acquiring the top positions player at the expense of OFs. Agree?

Finally, look at the top three DHs. This helps epxlain the drop in AL production this season. That extra hitter has struggled mightily. I bet the answer to this question goes a ways to explaining the production outage in the AL.