I haven't BABIPed in a while, but the mid-point of the season is a good time to do so. Given the leaders in BABIP over the last few seasons have not been below .270, I am secure in saying the Leaders will see worse BABIPs over the remiander of the year.

What makes BABIPing more interesting is the AL has surpassed the NL in SLG with two-and-a-half weeks of interleague play obscuring that fact. Eight of the Top 10 BABIP leaders are in the AL. Now that they do not face the NL, will these pitchers finally get the pummelling from the AL hitters that their BABIPs signal they should?

Last night, Justin Masterson allowed four runs in six IP. His hits were OK, but the walks and HRs will be his undoing. Ironically, allowing walks and HRs keeps his BABIP low because walks are not included in the calculation and HRs are subtracted from the numerator and denominator. Armando Galarraga gave up nine hits in six innings, and Gavin Floyd would have fared worse but for an unearned run allowed.

The Laggards are a different story because I am not convinced pitchers who are getting whacked regularly will keep their rotation spot despite being unlucky by BABIP standards. While performances look good with lucky BABIP, unlucky ones force people to disbelief their lying eyes. Stats have come a long way in baseball, but I am not sure they have come so far as to eliminate the human element. Does anyone think that Eric Wedge will keep sending Jeremy Sowers to the mound because he knows his BABIP luck is about to turn?

BABIP Leaders:

BABIP Laggards:

Cliff Lee won his 10th game for the Cleveland Indians last night and a look at his ERA and WHIP show him to be amongst the best AL pitchers. At 2.52 and 1.07, most fantasy players who see those ratios still think he hasn't "crashed" since his great start to the 2008 season. I beg to differ albeit not terribly strenuously.

I happened to acquire Lee in a trade seven starts ago so I have an insider's view of Lee's 2.52 ERa and 1.07 WHIP. I'm not complaining as the deal was Lee and Brandon Inge for Ivan Rodriguez, Erick Aybar, Manny Delcarmen and Mike Moustakis. Lee's 5 Wins since then likely makes me the winner of the deal at this point, but that is tangential to my post.

The point being is a pitcher's great ratios at this point do not show how well he has pitched from an arbitrary point in time between now and the start of the season. It is a lesson any fantasy owner still riding Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Ryan Dempster, Todd Wellemeyer etc should remember as they attempt to trade any of the shockingly good SPs of 2008. Even if you deal them and their ratios still look acceptable a month down the road, you did the right thing in trading them.

The cynic in me advises those owners with any of these pitchers to launder them for ones who have better peripherals over a longer period of time or to trade them for quality hitting. By swapping these fakes for the real thing, you accomplish two goals on your way to winning your fantasy baseball leagues. First, you get all the good stats from the pitcher and then the quality player(s) acquired for them going forward, and, second, you put a bomb on a competitors team who explodes and keeps them trying to dig out of an even larger hole.

Believe me? Maybe. Here are the numbers for Cliff Lee since I acquired him. Do these help your ratios?

Every time one of the BABIP leaders pitches a good game like Chicago White Sox righty Gavin Floyd did yesterday, fantasy players forget about BABIP as a indicator of future performance. How could it be right if it has been so worng so far? Not to pick on Floyd whose 20/1 K/BB over his past three starts shouldn't be forgotten, but BABIP is independent of even those great peripherals. Pitch and your BABIP goes to .300.

Conversely, every time a BABIP laggard pitches a ppor game, fantasy players conclude their isn't good things in that hurlers future as their high BABIP would indicate. I mena, come on, Florida Marlins' starter Andrew Miller has been on this list for months. Eventually, you conclude he stinks, right?

BABIP Leaders. Sell High?:

BABIP Laggards. Buy low?:

by Ryan Kaltenbach

Sunday Pitching Options:

Phil Dumatrait – Faces the D’backs at home.  Arizona is hitting .217 on the road, including .240 since May 1st with an OPS hovering around .700.  Dumatrait has been effective at home with a 3.10 era.  His ratio’s leave something to be desired but, should be considered a solid pitch and ditch option.

Wandy Rodriguez – In what will be his 3rd start since coming off the DL, Wandy comes home for the 1st time since his injury.  His winning ways at home have continued this year after last year’s Ervin Santana impression.  At home his era is 0.98 with a whip at .94.  His K/BB is 4.5/1 and he gets to face Kyle Lohse who I refuse to believe in.

Gavin Floyd – He’s getting lucky.  There, I’ve said it.  Yes, he’s 6-3 with a 3.15 era including a 2.39 era at home where he’ll be facing the average offense of the Minnesota Twins.  If we look closer we see his BABIP is .199 which is simply not sustainable.  His K/BB is well below average at 1.33.  This guy must be saying his prayers, helping old ladies across the street and recycling more than usual because his 3.15 can only be considered a gift from the baseball gods.  Stay away or sell high because this ship be sinking.

Matt Garza – You may have picked Garza up after watching him strikeout a season best 10 in his last start versus the Rangers.  “10 strikeouts?? And this guys not picked up?” you might have thought.  But beware, before his sizzling 10 K performance his previous high was 4.  He’ll be facing the .878 OPS at home hitting Rangers while his road era sits at 5.64.   Duck!

Best Last Week Ever . . .

Last week Casey Blake hit .360 with 3 HR’s and 10 RBI’s and he’s eligible at 1b/3b/CI/OF.  His peripherals also point towards a BA closer to .280 rather than the .236 currently.  He won’t dominate but, can provide value when you have injuries or on Monday/Thursday light schedules.

Last week Ben Francisco hit .355 with a HR and 5 rbi’s.  Even better is that his OPS has been over .850 vs. lefties and righties, at home and away, in day games and in night games, and during May and June.  Head to Head players should be all over this guy.  Consistency like this kills in H2H leagues and this guy’s OPS is about as consistent as the sun setting in the west.  He’s also spent most of his time this year hitting either 2nd or 3rd in the Indians lineup sandwich somewhere inbetween Sizemore, V-Mart and Garko.

Last week Chris Ianetta hit .333 with 2hr’s.  Ianetta’s a possible post-hype sleeper with lots of 2nd half value.  Sooner or later Clint Hurdle’s going to realize his starting catcher (Torrealba) has a .616 OPS and his backup catcher (Iannetta) has a .901 OPS.  When Torrealba started to swing and miss his way out of a full time job in May, Iannetta began taking at-bats.  As spring turns to summer and Iannetta’s at bats become more regular he’ll have Holliday, Hawpe, Barmes, and Tulowitzki all healthy and hitting in front of him.  2 Catchers leaguers, take note.

The list of BABIP leaders looks very familiar by now. This week I included innings pitched, Ks, and BBs along with whether or not the pitchers start on Monday or Tuesday. Do not let this familiarity fool you into thinking these pitchers have defeated the BABIP. There is still 2/3s of the season left and that means each of these starters has twenty-two starts remaining.

BABIP Leaders. Sell high?:

BABIP Laggards. Buy low?:

Here are two lists. The first are those starting pitchers who have been especially unlucky with their BABIP. Also included is the pitcher's K/BB ratio and whether or not they start on Monday or Tuesday.

Starting on Monday or Tuesday would mean the pitcher is in line to get two starts this week. There are off days for most teams, but I didn't wnat to assume these pitchers managers would or wouldn't skip turns. Knowing whether one of these pitchers will pitch twice this week can also assist fantasy owners in deciding who can have a great week by regressing from a high BABIP or who can have an awful week by regressing from a low one.

As for the K/BB, I am trying to see how lucky low BABIp pitchers have been. If the pitcher is walking as many as he strikesout, I will be prone towards thinking the pitcher is going to flame out rapidly (Gavin Floyd, Greg Reynolds, Scott Olsen). If the pitcher has a 2+ ratio (Shaun Marcum), I am prone to believing the regression could be more gradual and that the pitcher is "for real".

With High BABIP pitchers, I tend to think those with low K/BB are just bad pitchers. Higher K/BB could just reflect fewer balls in play and therefore the high BABIP could be expected.

These are just hypotheses because I am not sure of the utility of BABIP the deeper we get into the season. However, it does provide a statistic to back-up what we normally just describe as "luck". What will be interesting is Tuesday's match-up of High BABIP Chris Sampson versus low BABIP Ryan Dempster.

High BABIP Pitchers:

Low BABIP Pitchers:

The 2006 1st round pick of the Colroado Rockies, Greg Reynolds, made his major league debut and took the loss.  The game's boxscore looked good through the 5th inning before the Reynolds allowed three runs in the 6th.  Don't think too deeply about it.  He struck out just one hitter and got 7 groundoutds and nine flyouts.

Cincinnati Reds' rookie Johnny Cueto was lit up a game after teasing fantasy pundits with a gem last time out against the Chicago Cubs.  Prior to that Cubs game, he last a mere 1.2 innings and K'd just two - as he did in the start before that.  Right now, Cueto is a match-up start and not the automatic start he was after his first two starts.

The Los Angeles Angels' 2008 ace, Ervin Santana, got lit up by the Tampa Bay Rays to the tune of five earned runs and ten runners allowed in 5.2 innings. Unlike Greg Reynolds, Santana's 7 Ks and one walk offer consolance that he will be better next time out.

A pillar of the Chicago White Sox climb from the basement in 2007 is former failed pitchign prospect Gavin Floyd.  Prior to yesterday's start, he has a stellar 2.50 ERA.  Following yesterday's 3.2 innings of work and five earned runs, he now sports a still-excellent ERA of 3.32.  However, his two BBs yesterday and zero Ks means he has now walked more hitters (20) than he has struck out (19).  I'd say sell high but do not believe anyone would take him.  It may be time to just cut him.

In the same game, Seatlle Mariners' middle reliver Brandon Morrow struck out two White Sox in an inning.  For the season, has has 9 strikeouts and two walks in 7.1 innings over ten appearances.  He struggled mightily with a K/BB in his rookie season that looked as if it would never be greater than one.

Oakland A's LF Emil Brown hit his 4th HR and drove in RBIs #31, 32 and 33. He also stole his second base of the season.  Can a player be a sell high if no one wants to buy him?

Sticking with the A's, are they trying to force the Texas Rangers to make catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia a 1B?  They stole five bases on him and his pitching counterparts.  I know runners basically steal off the pitcher, but tagging Salty's CS% with an 0-5 will make him look bad regardless.