AL MVP, CY Young and ROY Leaders
With the second half of the baseball season kicking off today, here are the players in the AL who were the pre-All-Star Break leaders in the three major awards. This also happens to be how I voted in the on-going blogger voting being run by Rotojunkie. Expect the overall results to be up by Friday.
AL CY Young:
1. Justin Duchscherer, Oakland A's
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
There is no way I see Duchscherer having a second half to match his first, but, until then, he deserves the 1st place vote. My personal favorite to win it at season's end is Roy Halladay. To do so he will have to continue winning and lapping the field in innings pitched and complete games.
AL MVP:
1. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers
2. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
3. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
I made Ian Kinsler the MVP because he is sparking the shockingly strong Texas offense. While one can argue Josh Hamilton is the MVP, Kinsler's across the board offensive production gets the nod.
AL ROY:
1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
3. Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
Unless Joba Chamberlain goes on to post an 8-1 record in the second half, the Al ROY is Evan Longoria's to lose. With an .861 OPS and well-regarded defense (#1 amongst AL 3B in fielding percentage), Longoria is looking in his rearview mirror to see any other competitors.
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Mid-Season AL MVP, CY Young and ROY
Rotojunkie has taken over the dynamic feature started by Baseball Happenings that draws on the collective knowledge of the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues. This week's AL voting should be available later today.
AL Cy Young:
1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
My voting remains the same as last time, but I have Justin Duchscherer in the picture. What holds him back is he has not pitched as many innings as any of the top three - the 21 inning gap behind Saunders is the smallest one. John Danks of the 1st place White Sox has a great ERA but five Wins is more than a stretch to get in the picture.
AL MVP:
1. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
2. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
Hamilton holds on to the top spot simply because he has more ABs than either Drew or Rodriguez, two players on better teams. With injuries beginning to creep in for Hamilton, I don't expect him to occupy the top spot much longer. Anyone else notice that ARod is just three HRs behind the AL lead and has eleven SBs to go with his .405 OBP?
AL ROY:
1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
With Jacoby Ellsbury's plummetting OBP (.344), he no longer grabs the top spot. Evan Longoria has an OBP just three points lower and an OPS more than 100 points higher. As long as Joba Chamberlain continue to look like a #1 starter, Ellsbury's hold on the 2nd spot will not last much longer either.
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AL MVP, CY Young & ROY Leaders
Rotojunkie has taken over the dynamic feature started by Baseball Happenings that draws on the collective knowledge of the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues. This week's AL voting should be available later today.
Here is the way I voted. My biases for voting in the Cy Young and MVP awards lean towards those hitters and pitchers playing on contending teams. ROY determination is not tied are strongly to his team's record, but good rookies on expected paly-off contenders will get additional consideration.
AL Cy Young:
1. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
2. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
Despite having two fewer wins and a higher ERA, Roy Halladay gets my 1st place vote over Cliff Lee. Halladay has thrown 15 more innings (107.7 vs 92.7) and has a better K/BB ratio (6.6 vs 5.4). With Lee returning back to Earth, he only has wins to prevent others from seeing he is no longer the front-runner for the award.
AL MVP:
1. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
2. J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox
3. Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers
Josh Hamilton remains at the top of the AL MVP voting, but he is being challenged by teammate Milton Bradley, who current lead the AL in OBP (.451) and OPS (1.081). Making a surprise leap into the top three is Boston Red Sox RF J.D. Drew. With David Ortiz out of action, Drew has stepped-up in June with 7 HRs and a .447 AVG. On the season, he is second in OBP and OPS to Milton Bradley. He gets the 2nd place vote thanks the his team being in first and Bradley getting competition from Josh hamilton.
AL ROY:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2. David Murphy, Texas Rangers
3. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees
Anyone notice the New York Yankees have four rookie pitchers on their staff not including Ian Kennedy? Maybe this plan of fiscal discipline will pay-off - assuming all of them last past the July 31st trading deadline. I can see a couple of these rookies, like Jose veras and Russ Ohlendorf, finding their way the the Seattle Mariners for LHP Jarrod Washburn or Miguel Batista.
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Trade Strategy - Cliff Lee & Laundering Pitchers
Cliff Lee won his 10th game for the Cleveland Indians last night and a look at his ERA and WHIP show him to be amongst the best AL pitchers. At 2.52 and 1.07, most fantasy players who see those ratios still think he hasn't "crashed" since his great start to the 2008 season. I beg to differ albeit not terribly strenuously.
I happened to acquire Lee in a trade seven starts ago so I have an insider's view of Lee's 2.52 ERa and 1.07 WHIP. I'm not complaining as the deal was Lee and Brandon Inge for Ivan Rodriguez, Erick Aybar, Manny Delcarmen and Mike Moustakis. Lee's 5 Wins since then likely makes me the winner of the deal at this point, but that is tangential to my post.
The point being is a pitcher's great ratios at this point do not show how well he has pitched from an arbitrary point in time between now and the start of the season. It is a lesson any fantasy owner still riding Gavin Floyd, Jose Contreras, Ryan Dempster, Todd Wellemeyer etc should remember as they attempt to trade any of the shockingly good SPs of 2008. Even if you deal them and their ratios still look acceptable a month down the road, you did the right thing in trading them.
The cynic in me advises those owners with any of these pitchers to launder them for ones who have better peripherals over a longer period of time or to trade them for quality hitting. By swapping these fakes for the real thing, you accomplish two goals on your way to winning your fantasy baseball leagues. First, you get all the good stats from the pitcher and then the quality player(s) acquired for them going forward, and, second, you put a bomb on a competitors team who explodes and keeps them trying to dig out of an even larger hole.
Believe me? Maybe. Here are the numbers for Cliff Lee since I acquired him. Do these help your ratios?
| Period | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-trade | 37.7 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 32 | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Post-trade | 44.3 | 19 | 55 | 12 | 38 | 3.86 | 1.51 |
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AL Cy Young, MVP, Rookie-Of-The-Year Leaders
Rotojunkie has taken over the dynamic feature started by Baseball Happenings that draws on the collective knowledge of the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues. This week's AL voting should be available later today.
Here is the way I voted. My biases for voting in the Cy Young and MVP awards lean towards those hitters and pitchers playing on contending teams. ROY determination is not tied are strongly to his team's record, but good rookies on expected paly-off contenders will get additional consideration.
AL Cy Young:
1. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
2. Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
AL MVP:
1. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
2. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
3. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
AL ROY:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2. Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
3. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
How is it the team with the best record in the American League, The Tampa Bay Rays, only gets one player considered for one of the top three awards, and that only because the rookie class behind Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury is so weak? I can't imagine the actual voters not "forcing" a Rays into the Top 3 in all the awards if the Rays make the play-offs. The team will be the talk of the 2008 season, and the deisre to recognize it in the CY Young, MVP and Rookie-of-the-Year awards will be too strong to resist.
FOR ROY, Logoria is an easy choice to appear on the baseball writer's ballots. My best guess would by CF B.J. Upton for MVP on the strength of his .400+ OBP and SBs total. For Cy Young, James Shields would get the vote right now, but Scott Kazmir could get it if he remains in the rotation for the rest of the season. He has already surpassed Shields in Wins for the season and is just 20 Ks behind him with 43.2 fewer innings pitched.
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Fantasy Game Of The Night: Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
Cliff Lee is coming off his worst start of the 2008 season against the Cincinnati Reds - a 5.2 inning disaster. No matter how good Lee had been this season, and he was historically good, no one saw that game's statline and thought, "I can't believe it!" Everyone thought just the opposite, "I knew it."
What makes this game interesting is how Lee rebounds from that start. Does he restore the belief that he was a different pitcher this season or does he instantly become a sell high candidate that no one will buy?
Also of interest is whether or not Travis Hafner has officially become washed-up. The word in fantasy circles is certainly one of resignation that he is done. A look at his monthly splits kind of supports that feeling.
In April, he had a slashstat line of 208/304/33 with 12 BB and 96 ABs. So far in May, he is hitting 235/355/392, but he has drawn 9 BB in just 51 ABs. He has also matched his total XBHs from April (6) so far.
I think Hafner is a legitimate buy low candidate in that you can actually get him for 12-15th round value. I'm just not sure he rebounds back to levels that make that swap look good for the team getting Hafner.
While fantasy owners have been disappointed by Hafner, it pales in comparison for his team. The Cleveland Indians gave Hafner a four-year extension in 2007 that doesn't kick-in until 2009 for $11.5M that season and the next and $13M in the two seasons after that. There is a fifth season at $13M, but it is a club option that costs the team $2.75M to buyout.
That contract may be one of the most onerous in sports. In close competition is the one the Texas Rangers gave to Michael Young. It also doesn't kick in until 2009 for a total of $80MM. The most onerous may belong to the Mets if Johan Santana does not rebound towards his previous season levels. (For details, visit Cot's Contracts and click on the team.)
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AL Cy Young, MVP and ROY Leaders
Baseball Happenings enters its 7th week of polling the blogging community to provide intelligence on which players are currently considered the leading contenders for the big three baseball awards - MVP, Cy Young and ROY - for the American and National leagues. This week's results should be available later today .
Here is the way I voted. My biases for voting in the Cy Young and MVP awards lean towards those hitters and pitchers playing on contending teams. ROY determination is not tied are strongly to his team's record, but good rookies on expected paly-off contenders will get additional consideration.
AL Cy Young:
1. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
2. Daisuke Matzusaka, Boston Red Sox
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
Although Lee was bombed on Sunday, the 2008 season is far enough along that his statistics didn't plummet. Anothe rone or two like that, and he could very well be back with the pack. I struggled with the order of the next two because Daisuke doesn't pitch enough innings and Saunders doesn't strikout anyone nor does he have a killer GB/FB rate. Ultimately, I went with the 7-o pitcher.
AL MVP:
1. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
2. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
3. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
This was a close call given Hamilton's league-leading RBi total, but, ultimately, Quentin has been the best player on the 1st place team. Kevin Youkilis came in 3rd, but I suspect he will suffer from the presence of Manny Ramirez and the resurgent David Ortiz.
AL ROY:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
2. Greg Smith, Oakland Athletics
3. Nick Blackburn, Minnesota Twins
This is the same order as last time. All three have worsened since last time, but none are doing as poorly as hyped (over?) Tampa Bay Ray Evan Longoria. A 231/316/402 is a far cry from what was expected. New York Yankees reliever Joba Chamberlain could have made the list, but he in the midst of allowing runs in enough appearances to make his ROY candicacy appear to be an illusion of the New York media.
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David Ortiz, AL Home Run Leader And Other Baseball Notes
Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz hit two HRs yesterday and now has 10 this season. That total ties him with three other players (Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Carlos Quentin) for the American League lead. Since beginning the year 3-43, Big Papi has hit .312 and is hitting 354/447/692 in the month of May. If there is a chance of buying Ortiz for less than a 2nd round pick, it is very small.
In the marquee pitching match-up of the day, Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians and Edinson Volquez of the Cincinnati Reds faced off. Lee entered with a 0.67 ERa and Volquez with a 1.12. Cliff Lee circa 2007 showed up and left the game with a 1.37 while Volquez saw his ERA rise just a smidge to 1.33 despite walking four to bring his season total to 30 in 54.1 innings. I wonder if the Cliff Lee owner would trade him for Edinson Volquez and vice versa.
The Seattle Mariners sent C/DH Jeff Clement to AAA following yesterday's game. He was just 8-48 with 20 Ks so I can't argue that he deserved to stay up. I wonder how much rope RF Wladimir Balentien has. He is only 14-64 so far with 23 Ks and just four walks. Clement drew seven free passes - one less than Jose Lopez and Yuni Betancourt combined with 329 ABs. There's a hint to the M's offensive problems here somewhere.
St. Louis Cardinals' rookie reliever Chris Perez picked-up his 1st major league win. He pitched the 9th inning of a tie game which the Cards won in their final AB. Ryan Franklin has a lock on the interim closer's role, but he has just 11 Ks versus 10 BBs in 22 innings of work. Additionally, he has more fly outs than groundouts, too. If Jason Isringhausen struggles all season, I'd bet on Franklin's peripherals that Perez gets a closing shot by season's end.
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