With the All-Star Break upon us, now is a good time to look at those players who have completely surprised.  These are players who have been in the majors for a while and have produced at levels not previously seen.  It is not a list of MVP candidates.

To me these are the Top Five Hitting Surprises of the 1st Half and the pertinent production.

1.  2B Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers - 83 R .335 14 HR 23 SB
2.  CF Nate McLouth, Pittsburgh Pirates - 4th in R with 68, .902 OPS, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB
3.  RF J.D. Drew, Boston Red Sox - .303 17 HR 55 RBI
4.  CF Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians - 23 HR, 22 SB 54 RBI
5.  CF David Dejesus, Kansas City Royals - .307 10 HR 51 RBI 7 SB

Honorable Mentions:
CF BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays - 61 BB 27 SB.  Coming into 2008, he had an outside shot at 40/40 with the SB being the bigger if.  With 6 HRs, Upton looks like a stretch to go 20/40.
RF Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals - 20 HR 64 RBI.  .818 OPS in 2007 vs a .954 in 2008.  Given he has produced somewhat similar power numbers this year as he did in 2007 in the same number of ABs, I didn't put him in the Top 5
1B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox - .555 SLG 15 HR 63 RBI.  With a career .452 SLG, One wonders if the Semitic God of Walks has establoished a new level.  (Is "Semitic' more fair than "Greek" given Youkilis is Jewish and the proximity of Greece to Asia Minor?)

Derek Gould of the St. Louis Dispatch told Charlie Steiner on his XM Radio show, "Baseball Beat", that Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols will go on the D.L. on Thursday when SP Joel Piniero is activated.  1B/OF Chris Duncan will be recalled tonight to take SP Adam Wainwright's roster spot.

This offers an interesting test of the surprising Cardinals' mettle.  With a player of Pujols power and patience, the surrounding hitters will always be the lesser threats.  One wonders how the second-tier of Cardinals hitters will react when they become the opposing teams' top worries.

Does Ryan Ludwick's new-found ability to take walks continue?  (He has walked 23 times in 192 ABS versus 26 in 303 last season.)  Does anyone else (Troy Glaus, Ludwick, Duncan,  Skip Schumaker ) become less selective in their new roles of greater offensive responsibility? 

What is interesting is the Cards rank 3rd in MLB in team OBP with Pujols.  Ex-Pujols, the team OBP drops to .340.  More telling is a team SLG that is 11th in MLB drops to 20th without Pujols.  My calculations are rough (no HBP & SFs included), but I think those will be offset by the assumption that the figures assume static data and not dynamic ones.

Another interesting story to follow is how manager Tony LaRussa fills 1B?  Will he put Chris Duncan there or will he play the hitter who displaced him, Joe Mather?  One would think Mather would get the first shot at full-time ABs given he took Duncan's spot, but one can never discount the "veteran" experience - and the presence of a parent on the coaching staff.

Here is what Baseball America had to say about Joe Mather in its 2008 Prospect Handbook .  He was ranked 13th in the Cards organization.

Mather reached Class A in 2004, and for three seasons and more than 1,000 ABs, he stayed at that level, wondering each spring if he was making progress or about to be released. Cardinals officials recognized the potential in his swing, and in 2007 he blossomed. He hit 31 HRs as he climbed to Double-A and then Triple-A. Mather used to gobble ice cream and other high-calorie delights to pack weight on his lithe frame. By last year, he had filled out by 15 lbs and his game matured. Scouts saw the same raw ability in Mather, but they wondered if he would ever add the necessary polish. He put it together when he settled into a comfortable stance and approach at the plate, which led to better strike-sone awareness and more consistent power to all fields. He now has the best power in the system this side of Colby Rasmus, and he doesn't strike out excessively for a slugger. Mather is no burner but has stolen 23 bases without being caught over the last three seasons. He may be better at first base, but he runs well enough ans has enough athleticism and arm strength to play a corner outfield position. The versatility that once kept him playing while he struggled with the bat now opens an alternative avenue to the majors, and he's now just a phone call away. Added to the 40-man roster in Novemeber, he'll probably open 2008 in Triple-A.

The 2008 baseball season is one third finished.  Here is a list of players that have had fantasy players pounding their fists in frustration for either passing on these guys in their drafts, auctions and free agent pools only to see them help their competitors rise above them in the standings.  And stubbornly refuse to return to the levels expected of them!

This is appropriately called the All-WTF Team.

C  Miguel Olivo:  Victor Martinez - zero HRs.  Joe Mauer - zero HRs.  Jorge Posada - on the D.L. with one HR.  Miguel Olivo?  6 HRs and a .303 AVG with 22 RBIs
Honorable mention: Mike Napoli - leading all catchers with 10 HRs and three SBs to boot!

1B  Lance Berkman - How does a second/early third round pick surprise?  The .381 AVG and 16 HRs don't raise eyebrows but 10 SBs?  No frickin' way anyone thought that was possible.  Previous season-high?  9 in 2004.
Honorable mention: Kevin Youkilis - Who was drafted earlier, Justin Morneau or The Greek God of Walks?  Both have 9 HRs and are hitting .306-ish.  Morneau has five more ribbies but Youkilis' two more SBs gives him the edge.

2B  Ian Kinsler:   A .294 AVG and 15 SBs?  Yeah sure.  You predicted that. Honorable mention: Dan Uggla - The power has always been there but a .307 AVG?  Right.  After he hit .245 last year.

SS  Jerry Hairston, Jr. - The inspiration for the WTF Team.  Most baseball pundits complained about Corey Patterson's OBP, but at least he had been productive over the past three seasons.  Hairston? He hit .206 in 2006 and an even worse .189 last season.  Now the 32-year-old is the starting SS with a a .345 AVG and 9 SBs?  WTF! Honorable mention: Christian Guzman:  Guzman hasn't hit 5 HRs in a full season since he clubbed eight in 2004.  Raise your hand if you took Guzman before Khalil Greene?  Both have 5 HRs.

3B  Blake DeWitt - Andy LaRoche has got to be pulling his hair out.  Nomar Garciaparra is officially wash-ed up.  Every other weak-hitting utility infielder Ned Colletti can find is hurt or no longer a viable 25th man, and DeWitt rises from a third of a AA season to hit .293/.366/.463.
Honorable mention: Jorge Cantu - Evan Longoria has seven HRs and a .252 AVG.  Cantu has seven HRs and a .268 AVG.  Is there anyone who didn't think Cantu's 2005 season wasn't a fluke that coincidentally never came close to re-appearing after MLB began PED testing and suspending?

OF  Ryan Ludwick - A 28-year-old righty hitter who had a career AVG of .218 versus lefties does not all of sudden turn into a 13 HR/ 39 RBI/.327 hitter after six seasons of journeyman status. Honorable mention: Nate McLouth
OF  Jayson Werth - similar to Ludwick in that he is a 29-year-old who has spent six years being a part-time playe.  With 9 HRs and seven SBs, he had a full-time job until he got huirt.  Again.
OF  Eric Hinske - Someone else who was written off as incapable of producing in the post-PED ERA.  The 31-year-old Hinske has 10 bombs and has made the Rays one of the best teams in the American League with a versatility that recalls the days of 20+ HR utility man Tony Phillips.
Honorable mentions: Xavier Nady - The 29-year-old Nady set career highs in ABs, HRs and RBIs last year with 431, 20 and 72 respectively.  Now he's hitting .321 with 9 HRs and 42 RBIs.
Nate McLouth - He spent his first three seasons bouncing from a .257 AVg to .233 back to .258.  Yeah, you thought he'd be hitting .311 right now with 12 HRs.
Carlos Quentin - A sleeper for many given the weak OF options the White Sox have used over the past couple seasons, but no one thought he'd be a leading candidate for the AL MVP.  Certainly not Arizona Diamondbacks' GM Josh Byrnes who gave a 31-year-old Eric Byrnes a three-year contract to play Quentin's position and then dealt him for a Low A 1B this past winter 

There has certainly been an outage of offense in the American League this season. The questions of why and for how long remain unanswered. Here is a list of the Top 3 players by position using Baseball Prospectus' VORP statistic. Note how much difference there is just between the top player and the third-best one. This would lead me to believe a Stars & Scrubs versus a balance approach may be the best fantasy strategy. Agree?

Also, note how poorly the OF VORP leaders due relative to the other position players. The top VORP is lower. This supports the contention that the OF is "shallow" relative to the other positions. However, the drop-off is not as dramatic. There could be more depth in the OF relative to other positions. This supports a strategy that focuses on acquiring the top positions player at the expense of OFs. Agree?

Finally, look at the top three DHs. This helps epxlain the drop in AL production this season. That extra hitter has struggled mightily. I bet the answer to this question goes a ways to explaining the production outage in the AL.