This week's Prospect Hot Sheet by Baseball America (chat at 3:30) is led by Baltimore Orioles' AA RHP Chris Tillman.  His dominance at Double-A as a twenty-year-old has gone a long way to the current judgment that Bill Bavasi and the Seattle Mariners were the big losers in last winter's Erik Bedard trade.  The fact that Bedard remains on the D.L. with an arm issue further buttresses that assertion.

If the Baltimore Orioles do not give back some of the gains in performance from 2008, Tillman will be a part of a 2009 team that may force the Blue Jays and Yankees further from October baseball.  Tillman won't be alone as a rookie though.  At #4 is 2007 1st round pick, C Matt Wieters, who continues to destroy Double-A pitching.

To pile more "ifs" on to the Orioles 2009 expectations, if Wieters takes to major league baseball the same way 2008 NL ROY candidate geovanny Soto has with the Chicago Cubs and if Chris Tillman can successfully transition to the major league rotation the way Greg Smith of Oakland or Jair Jurrjens of Atlanta has, then J.P. Ricciardi in Toronto won't make it past 2009 employed and the New York Yankees will see 2008 as the beginning of a new dark days era.

Related to the Hot Sheet is this week's BA Top Tools podcast which highlighted those minor leaguers deemed to have the best tools at their level.  While Matt Wieters was cleaning up in High A awards the way Michael Phelps is doing at this summer's Olympics, he was not named the best power prospect in Double-A this year.  That honor went to the newest Syracuse Chief, Travis Snider.  With that accolade and a birthdate that has him as just 20 year-old, and without the controversy surrounding his age that surrounds the Chinese women gymnastics team, he will be one of the top handful of relevant 2009 fantasy rookies.

This week's Hot Sheet is lead by Kansas Royals' 2007 1st round pick, Mike Moustakas.  After a one HR April with a slashstat line of 190/253/226, his celing looked a lot lower.

Now he has 20 HRs in his first full season and has a slashstat line of 267/330/472 in the hitter unfriendly Midwest League.  His star remains undiminished going into 2009 fantasy drafts..

There will be a chat about the Hot Sheet at 3PM.  It is open to the public so feel free to chime in and ask why Matt Wieters doesn't have a permanent spot reserved for him.

In high A, he hit 15 HRs with 8 doubles in 229 ABs for a slashstat line of 345/448/576 with 47 K and 44 BBs.  in Double-A, he has 7 HRs and 10 doubles in 130 ABs for a slashstat line of 354/452/592 with 19 Ks and 25 BBs.

Looks like he's ready for the next level.

Last week, Baseball America' Prospect Hot Sheet was devoted to the Minor League All-Star Team for 2008. Any serious fantasy player and/or fan of baseball should familiarize themselves with these players as they will be the headliners in the 2009 season. Head over there to see a couple more players per position who didn't make the first team.

Three Huntsville hitters? I wonder if this team will prove to be better than the 2005 Jacksonville Suns one that had Russ Martin, James Loney, Andy LaRoche, etc?

Here are a couple of comments from Keith Law of Scouts, Inc on Matt Wieters and Chris Davis.

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This week's Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet is lead by Baltimore Orioles' catcher Matt Wieters.  He is absolutely dominating High A and should soon get the bump to AA.  A successful July and August in Double-A could see him with a September cup of coffee in anticipation of the 2009 Spring Training rookie hype that attended Jay Bruce, Chase Headley and Evan Longoria this past Spring.  The fact current O's catcher Ramon Hernandez can't hit anymore and is a free agent this Winter only makes this scenario more likely.

At the back end of the list are a couple Double-A prospects who look like they could be making fantasy impacts later the summer.  New York Mets' 1B Mike Carp may be the answer to a depthless bench once the Mets realize they have to have a more productive bat behind Carlos Delgado.  Marlon Anderson and Damion Easley are not viable options.  The fact they are the options argues for accountability on behalf of the Mets' employee who thought they were.

The Orioles make a second entry on the list with OF Nolan Reimold.  At 24, he is not losing valuable developmental time by crushing Double-A, and, when the Orioles deal their veterans this July, somebody has to fill the holes left by 1B Kevin Millar and OF Aubrey Huff.  Why not Reimold?

Included in the "In The Team Photo" section that lists some of the prospects who weren't hot enough and just missed, Chicago Cubs recent recallee Eric Patterson is mentioned.  Here is what was said and why fantasy leaguers should keep him in the back of their minds.  The July 31st non-waivers trading deadline will be here quicker than you think and still a third of the season will need to be played.

Triple-A Iowa's Eric Patterson (Cubs) will likely never have a full-time job in Chicago, and with his inability to play shortstop, he doesn't really fit as a utility infielder. But the man can hit, which likely means at some point, someone will give him a legitimate big league shot. Patterson, 25, hit .400/.423/.760 with three home runs last week, after hitting only one in the first two months of the season.

Head over to read about the other hot prospects and the chat that began at 3:15PM .

No. 1 MATT WIETERS, C
 ORIOLES
Team: high Class A Frederick (Carolina)
Age: 22
Why He's Here: .526/.654/.895, 10-for-19, 6 R, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 7-3 BB-K, 0-for-1 SB
The Scoop: This may be remembered as the week that Carolina League pitchers finally waved a white flag to Wieters. Pitchers simply decided to not let the league's best hitter beat them, so they have resorted to pitching around him, as evidenced by his five walks in two games. Who can blame them, as when he sees a pitch he can hit, it's often leaving the park.

It's not a question of whether or not Matt Wieters will make it the big leagues. It's simply a question of how soon? At this rate it'll be here before you know it. Wieters has been one of the surest bets when it comes to making the Hot Sheet and this past week may rival his previous rankings.

Oh and just to show that he's versatile, Wieters also laid down a perfect sacrifice bunt this week. He's a great power hitter who's also unselfish, we like to honor that on the Hot Sheet.
 

No. 10 MIKE CARP, 1B/LF
 METS
Team: Double-A Binghamton (Eastern)
Age: 22
Why He's Here: Hit .522/.560/.913 (12-for-23), 4 R, 9 RBIs, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K.
The Scoop: Yes, he's limited to first base, though the Mets have tried him in left field. And yes, he's not particularly good at either position. But Carp sure can hit, as his .361/.415/.562 line in 219 at-bats would indicate. The Carp bandwagon started go grow after his 2006 season with high Class A St. Lucie, when Carp hit .287/.379/.450 in 573 plate appearances in a pitcher-friendly league. Last year took away a bit of Carp's luster, as he hit .251/.337/.387 in 412 plate appearances with Binghamton after missing the first seven weeks of the season with a broken right finger. Now the bat seems to be back, making Carp one of the Eastern League's most dangerous hitters—perhaps the most dangerous.
 
No. 12 NOLAN REIMOLD, OF
 ORIOLES
Team: Double-A Bowie (Eastern)
Age: 24
Why He's Here: .450/.500/.700 (9-for-20), 2 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 1 HBP, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1/1 SB
The Scoop: After a .232/.324/.347 start in 95 April at-bats, Reimold has been one of the Eastern League's best hitters. His slash stats have jumped to .287/.377/.494 in 237 at-bats, and Reimold has shown an excellent handle of the strike zone with 33 walks and 35 strikeouts. Reimold has always had the bat speed and the power to become a future big league star, although we would like to see him at a higher level soon given his age.
 

With the major league draft occuring this afternoon, Baseball America has a special edition of their Prospect Hot Sheet available now that covers the top minor leaguers through May.  It does not include a prospect who has dominated over his first three professional starts, though.  Tampa Bay Rays' prospect David Price did not log enough playing time to qualify.  Although believiing his absence makes him any worse than the Top 5 prospect in the game right now would be a mistake.

I look at this list and see a foreshadowing of who will be highly-ranked next March when Baseball America's Top 100 for 2009 comes out.  If you take out the prospects likely to be ineligible for that list next season ( Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, Jeff Clement, Chase Headley), you are left with a good working list of the top prospects going into 2009.

Ones I'd add are Price, Rick Porcello of Detroit, and Travis Snyder of Toronto.  While I cannot envision Mat Gamel in the Top 10, his efforts at AA do not lie.  The fact that Bill Hall has failed so far with the bat for the Brewers and is now asking for a trade means Gamel has a clear path to playing time with the Brewers.  Whether his glove makes him a net negative in the majors is the only question preventing him from seeing Milwaukee.

For the complete write-ups of all the players along with some who just missed, head over to Baseball America .  To read the transcript of the chat that took place on Tuesday, click here . (Rankings from BA along with italicized write-ups.)

No. 1 JAY BRUCE, CF REDS
Why He's Here: .364/.393/.630 (67-for-184), 10 HR, 9 2B, 5 3B, 37 RBIs, 34 R, 12 BB, 45 SO, 8-for-9 SB

No. 2 MAT GAMEL, 3B BREWERS
Why He's Here: .382/.444/.670 (89-for-233), 54 R, 18 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 49 RBIs, 26 BB, 39 SO, 4-for-7 SB
 
No. 3 MATT WIETERS, C ORIOLES
Why He's Here: .329/.426/.576 (56-for-170), 37 R, 6 2B, 12 HR, 33 RBIs, 29 BB, 33 SO
The Scoop: After being taken fifth overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters and the Orioles agreed to a contract just seconds before the new signing deadline of Aug. 15. Wieters' first taste of pro ball came in Hawaii Winter Baseball, where he batted .283/.364/.415 and ranked as the league's top prospect. He was assigned to Frederick to begin 2008 and he has wreaked havoc on pitching since Opening Day when he hit two home runs. He already has three multi-home run games this season and has done most of his damage from the right side, pounding lefthanders to the tune of .417/.462/.938 in 48 at-bats with seven home runs. He also leads the league in basestealers caught, nailing 46 percent of those who try to swipe a bag on him.
 
No. 4 TREVOR CAHILL, RHP ATHLETICS
Why He's Here: 5-3, 2.88, 69 IP, 40 H, 24 R, 22 ER, 20 BB, 83 SO

No. 5 JASON HEYWARD, RF  BRAVES
Why He's Here: .332/.385/.516, 72-for-217, 15 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 43 R, 22 BB, 36 SO, 8-for-9 SB
 
No. 6 CLAYTON KERSHAW, LHP DODGERS
Why He's Here: 0-3, 2.28, 43 1/3 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 11 ER, 0 HR, 15 BB, 47 SO

No. 7 JEREMY HELLICKSON, RHP RAYS
Why He's Here: 5-1, 2.44, 63 IP, 62 H, 19 R, 17 ER, 5 BB, 69 SO
The Scoop: The Tampa Bay organization has been very patient and cautious with moving this Iowa righthander along. He's spent a full season at each level, even though he hasn't taken a full workload, maxing out at 111 innings pitched last year with low Class A Columbus (South Atlantic). While he's been good the last two seasons, he's been outstanding this year. What stands out most about Hellickson's season is his excellent command. In 63 innings he's allowed just five walks and hit four batters while striking out better than a batter per inning. "He's got a great delivery, he works down in the strike zone a lot and he works both sides of the plate," Vero Beach manager Jim Morrison said. "He's got a plus fastball, he keeps hitters off stride and throws the breaking ball for a strike.He gets way out front and gets on the front side really well, which a lot of guys struggle with. He's got a real quick, fast arm, and he'll get the same kind of arm release with his breaking ball and his changeup."
 
No. 8 MAX RAMIREZ, C/DH RANGERS
Why He's Here: .368/.448/.679 in 190 at-bats, 40 R, 70 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 42 RBIs, 26 BB, 48 SO, 1/3 SB

No. 9 ANDREW McCUTCHEN, CF PIRATES
Why He's Here: .287/.379/.448 (64-for-223), 7 HR, 15 2B, 24 RBIs, 36 R, 28 BB, 40 SO, 17-for-26 SB

No. 10 BEN REVERE, CF TWINS
Why He's Here: .420/.463/.594, 58-for-138, 11 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 11 BB, 10 SO, 16-for-26 SB

No. 11 MATT LaPORTA, RF BREWERS
Why He's Here: .286/.395/.586 in 210 at-bats, 41 R, 60 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 49 RBIs, 31 BB, 43 SO, 1/2 SB
The Scoop: LaPorta is making Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik and his staff look like geniuses for taking the Florida first baseman with the seventh overall pick last year. LaPorta and Gamel form the most dangerous hitting duo in the Southern League and perhaps in all of the minors. LaPorta is still getting used to playing in the outfield, but there's been no learning curve at the plate for the slugger with a slugging average .300 points higher than his batting average. The thought of adding LaPorta's and Gamel's bats one day to a lineup that already includes Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is downright scary.
 
No. 12 MADISON BUMGARNER, LHP GIANTS
Why He's Here: 5-2, 2.10, 51 1/3 IP, 43 H, 14 R, 12 ER, 9 BB, 59 SO
 
No. 13 MICHAEL BOWDEN, RHP RED SOX
Why He's Here: 4-3, 2.20, 61 1/3 IP, 39 H, 18 R, 15 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 58 SO
 
No. 14 DARYL THOMPSON, RHP REDS
Why He's Here: 5-2, 1.55, 75 1/3 IP, 54 H, 21 R, 13 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 68 SO

No. 15 JEFF CLEMENT, C/DH MARINERS
Why He's Here: .369/.488/.738 (48-for-130), 11 HR, 15 2B, 34 RBIs, 32 R, 28 BB, 20 SO
 
No. 16 CHASE HEADLEY, LF/3B PADRES
Why He's Here: .302/.371/.524 (68-for-225), 10 HR, 18 2B, 1 3B, 30 RBIs, 41 R, 22 BB, 58 SO

No. 17 JAIME GARCIA, LHP CARDINALS
Why He's Here: 4-2, 2.81, 64 IP, 57 H, 23 R, 20 ER, 2 HR, 23 BB, 64 SO
The Scoop: Garcia offers an uncommon package of being a prolific groundball pitcher who also has strikeout stuff with a low-90s sinker and a plus curveball. Garcia, who turns 22 on Sunday, struck out more than one batter per inning in Double-A and has continued his success upon his transition to Triple-A. In a system full of sinkerballers like Clayton Mortensen, Mitch Boggs, Tyler Herron, Garcia has separated himself with the quality of his pitches and his on-field success.
 
No. 18 TOMMY HANSON, RHP BRAVES
Why He's Here: 5-3, 2.55, 60 IP, 34 H, 21 R, 17 ER, 21 BB, 69 SO
 
No. 19 CHRIS TILLMAN, RHP ORIOLES
Why He's Here: 6-0, 2.68, 53 2/3 IP, 36 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 2 HR, 28 BB, 58 SO
 
No. 20 SEAN DOOLITTLE, 1B ATHLETICS
Why He's Here: .332/.420/.625, 69-for-208, 43 R, 15 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 34-59 BB-K, 4-for-7 SB

The Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet is out and heading the list is every fantasy expert's favorite prospect-blocked-by-a-nonsabremetrically-productive-player, Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds.  I am not sure what his production would look like in Cincinnati given he isn't taking walks at AAA (11 with 145 ABs) and has struck out 34 times.  Given the challenge of playing CF between two DHs, I wonder if the adjustment offensively and defensively would lead to a slash stat line not much better than that nonsabremetrically-productive player blocking him.

This week's list offers a lot of good news for Baltimore Orioles fans as three of their team's top prospects make the list. There are also two players ripping-up their leagues who could see time in the majors this year.  The first is Texas Rangers AA 1B Chris Davis, and the other is Detroit Tigers 2B Mike Hollimon.

Davis could finally get the call if 1b Chris Shelton proves to be nothing more than a 4A player, and Hollimon could see time if the Tigers decide to a.) pack-in the season or b.) inject some energy into the offense by adding another young, hungry (not Miguel Cabrera hungry) player to the roster.

Click through to read about the other players on this week's Prospect Hot Sheet .  There will also be a chat at 2:30PM to discuss it.  

No. 2 CHRIS TILLMAN, RHP
The Scoop: The youngest pitcher in Double-A right now is Dodgers lefthander Clayton Kershaw. The second-youngest? That would be Tillman, who is now 4-0, 2.41 in eight starts. Sure, the walks were a bit high this week, and he has walked 20 batters in 37 1/3 innings, but he is also facing significantly older competition, as most of Tillman's peers are still in high Class A or even low Class A. Despite Tillman's youth, he still has 38 strikeouts—more than one per inning—and he's allowed just 22 hits. Sometimes minor league pitchers get away with marginal stuff with an advanced feel for pitching and the ability to locate pitches against inferior hitters. That's not the case with Tillman, who has a plus fastball and a plus curveball. Tillman mixed both of those pitches yesterday against Erie in his best start yet, when he had nine strikeouts, two walks and allowed three hits in six shutout innings, his best performance yet this year.
 
No. 3 MATT WIETERS, C
The Scoop: Wieters has been consistent all season, collecting plenty of hits, while drawing walks. He's also simply destroyed lefthanded pitching to the tune of .405/.436/.892 with five home runs in 37 at-bats. Pitchers seem more willing to pitch to him with no one on, rightfully so, as seven of his nine home runs are of the solo variety. Three of those came in a span of just two games this week. But, he's also been flashing some good defense. Wieters leads the Carolina League in throwing out base stealers, nailing 46 percent of the runners that have dared try to swipe a bag.
 
No. 5 JAKE ARRIETA, RHP
The Scoop: Arrieta's pro debut has gone swimmingly so far, as he's looking like a fifth-round steal for the Orioles. Arrieta dropped in last year's draft because of a high price tag ($1.1 million) and a poor junior season. We've found that Arrieta likes wood bats. After compiling a 3.01 ERA at Texas Christian as a junior, he's 4-0, 1.74 this year. He was able to the keep the walk count down this week, but has struggled in that department, issuing at least three free passes in five of his starts.
 
No. 7 CHRIS DAVIS, 1B
Why He's Here: .565/.593/.913 (13-for-23), 6 R, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 3 BB, 1 SO
The Scoop: Davis has always had big-time power. The 2006 fifth-round pick is now up to .340/.384/.607 with 10 home runs and 10 doubles in 150 at-bats. With 61 home runs in 986 minor league plate appearances, Davis is averaging a whopping 37 home runs per 600 plate appearances. That figure has gotten a boost from some of the hitter-friendly environments that Davis has played in, but nobody questions his tremendous power. The biggest knock on Davis' offensive game has been his plate discipline; he had 58 walks and 215 strikeouts entering the season, and he has 12 walks and 37 strikeouts in 2008. So it was also impressive that Davis continued to hit for power despite striking out only once in the past seven days.

No. 13 MICHAEL HOLLIMON, 2B
The Scoop: Hollimon is not your typical second baseman. Offensively, the switch-hitter resembles a power-hitting corner outfielder who's unafraid to work deep counts. Defensively, he's fine at second base, but lacks the arm to regularly play on the left side of the infield. No matter. A middle-of-the-diamond player who's capable of reeling off weeks like Hollimon did this time around will find work at the next level. And then there's this, Hollimon's .354 isolated power would rank third in the International League, behind corner infielders Mike Hessman and Brad Eldred, if he hadn't missed two weeks at the outset of the season, thus disqualifying him for the batting title at the moment.

David Stockstill, Director of Minor League Operations for the Baltimore Orioles was the guest last Friday on John Sickels' "Down On The Farm" show on XM Radio.  He provided some updates for a variety of the O's better known prospects.  What stuck out to me was the conservative philospohy the Orioles are using with their players.

This was explicitly stated about the pitcher Chris Tillman, the top pitching prospect the team received from the Seattle Mariners in the Erik Bedard trade, and not so explicitly stated about last year's top draft pick, C Matt Wieters, who is tearing-up Hi A.

AAA Norfolk:
1. Garrett Olson: needs time to adjust to each new level...improved change-up
2. Mike Costanzo: very good athlete...can play several positions...valuable as a utility player
AA Bowie:
1. Nolan Reimold: over-swings because of pressure to get to majors.
2. Chris Tillman: live fastball..let him pitch...will be conservative promoting him due to past organizational errors made by being too aggressive
3. David Hernandez: batters do not see the ball well out of his hand
4. Jason Berken:  92-93 MPH, good slider and sinker, very good command
Hi A Frederick:
1. Matt Wieters: no timetable...will stay at Hi A for the foreseeable future
2. Billy Rowell: working on defense at 3B...learning not to pull every pitch
3. Jake Arrietta: viewed as a start...pitches get away from him becuase he tries to do too many things
4. Brandon Erbe:  in tight spots, tires to throw harder...learning how to pitch
Low A Delmarva:
1. Tony Butler:  longer arm in delivery...can't be as pinpoint in control as Garrett Olson can be...smoothed out delivery...if commands slider, can move quicker.

Here is an interview by Dave Laurila of Baseball Prospectus with Chris Tillman