BABIP Leaders & Laggards
by faketeams
on Jun 1, 2008 8:36 AM EDT
in Baseball
The list of BABIP leaders looks very familiar by now. This week I included innings pitched, Ks, and BBs along with whether or not the pitchers start on Monday or Tuesday. Do not let this familiarity fool you into thinking these pitchers have defeated the BABIP. There is still 2/3s of the season left and that means each of these starters has twenty-two starts remaining.
BABIP Leaders. Sell high?:
| NAME | TEAM | IP | SO | BB | BABIP | M/T? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Reynolds | COL | 23.3 | 8 | 15 | 0.162 | MON |
| Claudio Vargas | NYN | 24 | 12 | 8 | 0.188 | No |
| Gavin Floyd | CHA | 64.3 | 32 | 27 | 0.196 | TUES |
| Armando Galarraga | DET | 49.7 | 33 | 22 | 0.196 | No |
| Shaun Marcum | TOR | 78.7 | 67 | 22 | 0.204 | No |
| Darrell Rasner | NYA | 25 | 14 | 3 | 0.216 | No |
| Shawn Estes | SDN | 24.3 | 14 | 10 | 0.216 | No |
| Ryan Dempster | CHN | 75.3 | 63 | 33 | 0.222 | No |
| Scott Olsen | FLO | 69 | 32 | 31 | 0.232 | MON |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | BOS | 64 | 55 | 38 | 0.238 | No |
| Joe Saunders | ANA | 75 | 34 | 20 | 0.239 | TUES |
| Erik Bedard | SEA | 53 | 48 | 23 | 0.241 | TUES |
| Aaron Laffey | CLE | 39.7 | 20 | 8 | 0.242 | MON |
| Kevin Slowey | MIN | 34.7 | 24 | 6 | 0.242 | TUES |
BABIP Laggards. Buy low?:
| NAME | TEAM | IP | SO | BB | BABIP | M/T? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Adenhart | ANA | 12 | 4 | 13 | 0.391 | No |
| Andrew Miller | FLO | 55.3 | 46 | 23 | 0.379 | No |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 64.7 | 61 | 26 | 0.368 | MON |
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | 24.7 | 24 | 13 | 0.361 | No |
| Ian Snell | PIT | 62.7 | 44 | 31 | 0.359 | No |
| Miguel Batista | SEA | 55.7 | 37 | 34 | 0.353 | No |
| Chris Sampson | HOU | 51.3 | 26 | 12 | 0.352 | No |
| Mike Pelfrey | NYN | 56 | 29 | 25 | 0.351 | No |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | COL | 58.7 | 48 | 33 | 0.35 | No |
| Doug Davis | ARI | 21.7 | 20 | 13 | 0.349 | MON |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | ATL | 31.7 | 30 | 13 | 0.348 | MON |
| Jarrod Washburn | SEA | 53.7 | 32 | 13 | 0.345 | MON |
0 comments | 0 recs
BABIP Leaders and Laggards
by faketeams
on May 19, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
in Baseball
Here are two lists. The first are those starting pitchers who have been especially unlucky with their BABIP. Also included is the pitcher's K/BB ratio and whether or not they start on Monday or Tuesday.
Starting on Monday or Tuesday would mean the pitcher is in line to get two starts this week. There are off days for most teams, but I didn't wnat to assume these pitchers managers would or wouldn't skip turns. Knowing whether one of these pitchers will pitch twice this week can also assist fantasy owners in deciding who can have a great week by regressing from a high BABIP or who can have an awful week by regressing from a low one.
As for the K/BB, I am trying to see how lucky low BABIp pitchers have been. If the pitcher is walking as many as he strikesout, I will be prone towards thinking the pitcher is going to flame out rapidly (Gavin Floyd, Greg Reynolds, Scott Olsen). If the pitcher has a 2+ ratio (Shaun Marcum), I am prone to believing the regression could be more gradual and that the pitcher is "for real".
With High BABIP pitchers, I tend to think those with low K/BB are just bad pitchers. Higher K/BB could just reflect fewer balls in play and therefore the high BABIP could be expected.
These are just hypotheses because I am not sure of the utility of BABIP the deeper we get into the season. However, it does provide a statistic to back-up what we normally just describe as "luck". What will be interesting is Tuesday's match-up of High BABIP Chris Sampson versus low BABIP Ryan Dempster.
High BABIP Pitchers:
| NAME | TEAM | BABIP | K/BB | M/T? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | 0.432 | 2.14 | Yes |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | ATL | 0.415 | 2.43 | No |
| Matt Belisle | CIN | 0.395 | 1.8 | Yes |
| Nick Adenhart | ANA | 0.391 | 0.31 | No |
| Andrew Miller | FLO | 0.39 | 1.84 | No |
| Miguel Batista | SEA | 0.372 | 1.1 | No |
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 0.37 | 2.39 | Yes |
| Chris Sampson | HOU | 0.366 | 2 | Yes |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.365 | 2.15 | No |
| C.C. Sabathia | CLE | 0.364 | 2.59 | Yes |
Low BABIP Pitchers:
| NAME | TEAM | BABIP | K/BB | M/T? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Masterson | BOS | 0.071 | 1 | No |
| Claudio Vargas | NYN | 0.154 | 1.5 | Yes |
| Shaun Marcum | TOR | 0.178 | 3.06 | No |
| Greg Reynolds | COL | 0.179 | 0.75 | No |
| Armando Galarraga | DET | 0.182 | 1.71 | No |
| Gavin Floyd | CHA | 0.193 | 0.96 | No |
| Darrell Rasner | NYA | 0.194 | 5 | No |
| Ryan Dempster | CHN | 0.211 | 2 | Yes |
| Scott Olsen | FLO | 0.214 | 1.04 | No |
| Aaron Laffey | CLE | 0.214 | 2.8 | No |
| Tim Redding | WAS | 0.215 | 1.7 | Yes |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | BOS | 0.22 | 1.44 | No |
| Erik Bedard | SEA | 0.227 | 1.95 | No |
| Shawn Estes | SDN | 0.227 | 1.5 | No |
| Matt Albers | BAL | 0.23 | 1.78 | No |
| Daniel Cabrera | BAL | 0.237 | 1.54 | Yes |
| Ben Sheets | MIL | 0.241 | 3.58 | No |
0 comments | 0 recs
Sell High And Other Baseball Notes
by faketeams
on May 12, 2008 6:31 AM EDT
in Baseball
The 2006 1st round pick of the Colroado Rockies, Greg Reynolds, made his major league debut and took the loss. The game's boxscore looked good through the 5th inning before the Reynolds allowed three runs in the 6th. Don't think too deeply about it. He struck out just one hitter and got 7 groundoutds and nine flyouts.
Cincinnati Reds' rookie Johnny Cueto was lit up a game after teasing fantasy pundits with a gem last time out against the Chicago Cubs. Prior to that Cubs game, he last a mere 1.2 innings and K'd just two - as he did in the start before that. Right now, Cueto is a match-up start and not the automatic start he was after his first two starts.
The Los Angeles Angels' 2008 ace, Ervin Santana, got lit up by the Tampa Bay Rays to the tune of five earned runs and ten runners allowed in 5.2 innings. Unlike Greg Reynolds, Santana's 7 Ks and one walk offer consolance that he will be better next time out.
A pillar of the Chicago White Sox climb from the basement in 2007 is former failed pitchign prospect Gavin Floyd. Prior to yesterday's start, he has a stellar 2.50 ERA. Following yesterday's 3.2 innings of work and five earned runs, he now sports a still-excellent ERA of 3.32. However, his two BBs yesterday and zero Ks means he has now walked more hitters (20) than he has struck out (19). I'd say sell high but do not believe anyone would take him. It may be time to just cut him.
In the same game, Seatlle Mariners' middle reliver Brandon Morrow struck out two White Sox in an inning. For the season, has has 9 strikeouts and two walks in 7.1 innings over ten appearances. He struggled mightily with a K/BB in his rookie season that looked as if it would never be greater than one.
Oakland A's LF Emil Brown hit his 4th HR and drove in RBIs #31, 32 and 33. He also stole his second base of the season. Can a player be a sell high if no one wants to buy him?
Sticking with the A's, are they trying to force the Texas Rangers to make catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia a 1B? They stole five bases on him and his pitching counterparts. I know runners basically steal off the pitcher, but tagging Salty's CS% with an 0-5 will make him look bad regardless.
4 comments | 0 recs
