The San Diego Padres finally got comfortable that top hitting prospect Chase Headley will not qualify as a Super Two and will activate in time to make his 2008 major league debut at Yankees Stadium on Tuesday.  (NOTE:  Headley was up last season and accrued a little service time.  That is why the Padres would have had to wait longer than the end of May to bring Headley back and avoid Super two status.)

No sooner was this announcement made than I received a very interesting trade offer in a redraft NL-Only 5x5 league.  I drafted Headley before the season started with the hopes he would break camp with the Padres, and, if he didn't, he'd be up soon enough that I could use a bench spot.  An NL-only format with weekly moves makes using a bench spot or two on D.L./minor leaguers much easier to do.

What was the offer that made me stop?  Cincinnati Reds' rookie OF Jay Bruce in exchange for Headley and Chicago Cubs SS Ryan Theriot.  For those of us who did not own Jay Bruce when he was recalled a couple of weeks ago, we are only left with the great impression his hot first week gave - 15 for 26 with 3 HRs and 2 SBs.  He has appreciably cooled with a subsequent 11-46 with just one more HR.

The question is whether the cooling is permanent or just a temporary lull.  A lull makes a Headley/Theriot swap worth the risk.  A "permanent cooling" (read: the rest of this season) tilts the reward part of the risk/reward equation in the offering team's favor.  What would you do?

With the major league draft occuring this afternoon, Baseball America has a special edition of their Prospect Hot Sheet available now that covers the top minor leaguers through May.  It does not include a prospect who has dominated over his first three professional starts, though.  Tampa Bay Rays' prospect David Price did not log enough playing time to qualify.  Although believiing his absence makes him any worse than the Top 5 prospect in the game right now would be a mistake.

I look at this list and see a foreshadowing of who will be highly-ranked next March when Baseball America's Top 100 for 2009 comes out.  If you take out the prospects likely to be ineligible for that list next season ( Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, Jeff Clement, Chase Headley), you are left with a good working list of the top prospects going into 2009.

Ones I'd add are Price, Rick Porcello of Detroit, and Travis Snyder of Toronto.  While I cannot envision Mat Gamel in the Top 10, his efforts at AA do not lie.  The fact that Bill Hall has failed so far with the bat for the Brewers and is now asking for a trade means Gamel has a clear path to playing time with the Brewers.  Whether his glove makes him a net negative in the majors is the only question preventing him from seeing Milwaukee.

For the complete write-ups of all the players along with some who just missed, head over to Baseball America .  To read the transcript of the chat that took place on Tuesday, click here . (Rankings from BA along with italicized write-ups.)

No. 1 JAY BRUCE, CF REDS
Why He's Here: .364/.393/.630 (67-for-184), 10 HR, 9 2B, 5 3B, 37 RBIs, 34 R, 12 BB, 45 SO, 8-for-9 SB

No. 2 MAT GAMEL, 3B BREWERS
Why He's Here: .382/.444/.670 (89-for-233), 54 R, 18 2B, 5 3B, 13 HR, 49 RBIs, 26 BB, 39 SO, 4-for-7 SB
 
No. 3 MATT WIETERS, C ORIOLES
Why He's Here: .329/.426/.576 (56-for-170), 37 R, 6 2B, 12 HR, 33 RBIs, 29 BB, 33 SO
The Scoop: After being taken fifth overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters and the Orioles agreed to a contract just seconds before the new signing deadline of Aug. 15. Wieters' first taste of pro ball came in Hawaii Winter Baseball, where he batted .283/.364/.415 and ranked as the league's top prospect. He was assigned to Frederick to begin 2008 and he has wreaked havoc on pitching since Opening Day when he hit two home runs. He already has three multi-home run games this season and has done most of his damage from the right side, pounding lefthanders to the tune of .417/.462/.938 in 48 at-bats with seven home runs. He also leads the league in basestealers caught, nailing 46 percent of those who try to swipe a bag on him.
 
No. 4 TREVOR CAHILL, RHP ATHLETICS
Why He's Here: 5-3, 2.88, 69 IP, 40 H, 24 R, 22 ER, 20 BB, 83 SO

No. 5 JASON HEYWARD, RF  BRAVES
Why He's Here: .332/.385/.516, 72-for-217, 15 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 43 R, 22 BB, 36 SO, 8-for-9 SB
 
No. 6 CLAYTON KERSHAW, LHP DODGERS
Why He's Here: 0-3, 2.28, 43 1/3 IP, 32 H, 16 R, 11 ER, 0 HR, 15 BB, 47 SO

No. 7 JEREMY HELLICKSON, RHP RAYS
Why He's Here: 5-1, 2.44, 63 IP, 62 H, 19 R, 17 ER, 5 BB, 69 SO
The Scoop: The Tampa Bay organization has been very patient and cautious with moving this Iowa righthander along. He's spent a full season at each level, even though he hasn't taken a full workload, maxing out at 111 innings pitched last year with low Class A Columbus (South Atlantic). While he's been good the last two seasons, he's been outstanding this year. What stands out most about Hellickson's season is his excellent command. In 63 innings he's allowed just five walks and hit four batters while striking out better than a batter per inning. "He's got a great delivery, he works down in the strike zone a lot and he works both sides of the plate," Vero Beach manager Jim Morrison said. "He's got a plus fastball, he keeps hitters off stride and throws the breaking ball for a strike.He gets way out front and gets on the front side really well, which a lot of guys struggle with. He's got a real quick, fast arm, and he'll get the same kind of arm release with his breaking ball and his changeup."
 
No. 8 MAX RAMIREZ, C/DH RANGERS
Why He's Here: .368/.448/.679 in 190 at-bats, 40 R, 70 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 42 RBIs, 26 BB, 48 SO, 1/3 SB

No. 9 ANDREW McCUTCHEN, CF PIRATES
Why He's Here: .287/.379/.448 (64-for-223), 7 HR, 15 2B, 24 RBIs, 36 R, 28 BB, 40 SO, 17-for-26 SB

No. 10 BEN REVERE, CF TWINS
Why He's Here: .420/.463/.594, 58-for-138, 11 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI, 11 BB, 10 SO, 16-for-26 SB

No. 11 MATT LaPORTA, RF BREWERS
Why He's Here: .286/.395/.586 in 210 at-bats, 41 R, 60 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 49 RBIs, 31 BB, 43 SO, 1/2 SB
The Scoop: LaPorta is making Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik and his staff look like geniuses for taking the Florida first baseman with the seventh overall pick last year. LaPorta and Gamel form the most dangerous hitting duo in the Southern League and perhaps in all of the minors. LaPorta is still getting used to playing in the outfield, but there's been no learning curve at the plate for the slugger with a slugging average .300 points higher than his batting average. The thought of adding LaPorta's and Gamel's bats one day to a lineup that already includes Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun is downright scary.
 
No. 12 MADISON BUMGARNER, LHP GIANTS
Why He's Here: 5-2, 2.10, 51 1/3 IP, 43 H, 14 R, 12 ER, 9 BB, 59 SO
 
No. 13 MICHAEL BOWDEN, RHP RED SOX
Why He's Here: 4-3, 2.20, 61 1/3 IP, 39 H, 18 R, 15 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 58 SO
 
No. 14 DARYL THOMPSON, RHP REDS
Why He's Here: 5-2, 1.55, 75 1/3 IP, 54 H, 21 R, 13 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 68 SO

No. 15 JEFF CLEMENT, C/DH MARINERS
Why He's Here: .369/.488/.738 (48-for-130), 11 HR, 15 2B, 34 RBIs, 32 R, 28 BB, 20 SO
 
No. 16 CHASE HEADLEY, LF/3B PADRES
Why He's Here: .302/.371/.524 (68-for-225), 10 HR, 18 2B, 1 3B, 30 RBIs, 41 R, 22 BB, 58 SO

No. 17 JAIME GARCIA, LHP CARDINALS
Why He's Here: 4-2, 2.81, 64 IP, 57 H, 23 R, 20 ER, 2 HR, 23 BB, 64 SO
The Scoop: Garcia offers an uncommon package of being a prolific groundball pitcher who also has strikeout stuff with a low-90s sinker and a plus curveball. Garcia, who turns 22 on Sunday, struck out more than one batter per inning in Double-A and has continued his success upon his transition to Triple-A. In a system full of sinkerballers like Clayton Mortensen, Mitch Boggs, Tyler Herron, Garcia has separated himself with the quality of his pitches and his on-field success.
 
No. 18 TOMMY HANSON, RHP BRAVES
Why He's Here: 5-3, 2.55, 60 IP, 34 H, 21 R, 17 ER, 21 BB, 69 SO
 
No. 19 CHRIS TILLMAN, RHP ORIOLES
Why He's Here: 6-0, 2.68, 53 2/3 IP, 36 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 2 HR, 28 BB, 58 SO
 
No. 20 SEAN DOOLITTLE, 1B ATHLETICS
Why He's Here: .332/.420/.625, 69-for-208, 43 R, 15 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 34-59 BB-K, 4-for-7 SB

With the successful debut of Cincinnati Reds' OF Jay Bruce, one more player has been added to the pool of top bail pieces for 2009.  Earlier this week, the Dodgers added to their list of bail players when LHP Clayton Kershaw made his pro debut with six innings and seven Ks.

While some may believe it is still too early to begin bailing, the debuts of the top hitting and pitching prospects innthe minors usher in the bail season.  Following Bruce and Kershaw will be Padres LF Chase Headley as soon as the Padres feel comfortable that he will not be a Super Two player.

Sadly, none of these recalls help fantasy owners in AL-Only keeper leagues.  For these unfortunate souls who find themselves at the wrong end of the standings, there do not appear to be many minor leaguers who would trigger the desire to play for 2009.

I know because I find myself in just that predicament.  There are decent players to target in Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria and Carlos Quentin, but all of them pre-dated the decision to re-focus.

As a result, I took a deeper look at my 10th place AL-Only team to see if making bad bail trades is bettert han waiting for the turn in fortune.  A glance at the eight categories makes it obvious where I have gone wrong in 2008.  Out of a possible forty points in pitching, I have a total of six.  The minimum is four.  I am last in Wins and ERA.

On the hitting side, I have 35.5 points.  To me it is clear that one half of my 2008 strategy has worked exactly as expected.  The other half was a worse than worst case scenario.

Is a season lost if a team's hitting accounts for 86% of its points?

This game isn't intersting because of the resurgent Cardinals and  Ryan Ludwick, whose 12 HRs leads the team.  This game is interesting because Padres GM Kevin Towers let loose to the press with some fighting words for his 14-games-under-.500 and worst-record-in-baseball team.

As quoted from the San Diego Union-Tribune :

"We've got some hungry players down below looking for the opportunity. If we make changes, they will be wholesale ... as a group. We're in a rut. There's not one player in the system who is going to turn us around. I'm still holding out hope, but my patience is running thin. That's pretty clear."

Most fantasy players are aware of LF Chase Headley at AAA, and he will certainly be part of the "wholesale" changes.  A couple others could be 2B Matt Antonelli whose AAA slash stat line of 193/325/319 is completely umipressive and C Nick Hundley who also remains unimpressive at 202/276/375.

Geez, there doesn't really look like reinforcements are coming from AAA, does it?  But given the veterans with the Padres aren't doing well anyhow, maybe it doesn't matter.  The question is whether the Padres pick-up the pace or if Kevin Towers uses the last two-thirds of 2008 to determine who can help in 2009.

Continue reading this post »

Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet  is out and it is headed by just what San Diego Padres' fans need - a major league player who can hit and plays a position other than 1B.  LF Chase Headley heads the list and likely won't be eligible much longer.  A major league teams that bats Paul MAnulty 5th really can't call themselves "contenders". 

Before too long, I expect 2B Matt Antonelli to be recalled, too.  Pushing McAnulty and current 2B Tadito Iguchi into reserve roles makes the Padres that much better by putting McAnulty's patience and power into a pinch-hitting role and allowing the Padres to use Iguchi at 3B late in games without a precipitous drop in offensive ability.  (Yes, that says a lot about the Padres clean-up hitter, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff.)

Nevermind the rumors that the Padres are interested in adding a AAA CF to displace whatever currently passes for CF in San Diego right now - Jim Edmonds and Scott Hairston hitting 178/265/233 and 210/257/400 respectively.  Adding Cory Sullivan and Matt Antonelli would also add an element of speed that is missing this year for the Padres.  The team has just eight stolen bases in a mere eleven attempts.

Here are a few other notable propsects.  Click through to get the whole list.  Remember there is a chat at 2:30 about it.

1. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
2. Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
3. Michael Saunders, Seattle Mariners
7. Fernando Martinez, New York Mets
10. James McDonald, Los Angeles Dodgers
11. Jason Donald, Philadelphia Phillies