It's Monday, and that means it's time again for another fantasy baseball chat. I'll be starting tonight at 8:30 PM EST (5:30 out here for me in California), and will be taking questions until around either 9:30 PM or 10:00 PM depending on how good the questions are. Have questions about any of our rankings? Prospect questions? Keepers as well? Stop by and I'll try to answer as many questions as I can during those time frames.

We come to the second to last installment of the early ADP trends over at Mock Draft Central. We take a gander at the Starting Pitchers. So many theories have been bandied about, how this system works and people who don't draft starters till after round so and so. Well it's all well and good in theory, until you start drafting your team. Best advice I can drop on ya is don't chase wins, period. Wins are a wonky stat. So enjoy the pretty little chart and have a nice slice of my analysis afterwards.

Continue reading this post »

The night's co-main event is a heavyweight scrap between Stefan Struve and Dave "Peewee" Herman. Just a few years ago both were considered bright prospects in the always-thin heavyweight division, and while Struve has fallen against top tier competition, Herman remains untested at the top of the sport, and will look to catapult from this win into just such a test.

Stefan Struve

Struve is the tallest fighter in the UFC, and after debuting just two days after his 21^st birthday was one of the youngest debuting fighters ever in the promotion. Struve’s relatively-slight build for a heavyweight, combined with his long limbs, makes a unique match-up for any opponent he is paired with.

Recent Fights

Struve is on an impressive 6-2 run in the UFC since dropping his debut to Junior Dos Santos, however the Dutch giant has been unable to string together a long chain of victories in his UFC tenure to-date. His three fight winning streak was snapped by a Roy Nelson TKO, and after scoring TKO wins over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle, Struve was again stopped early, this time by Travis Browne. Struve managed to avoid his first ever consecutive losses by trading blows in a tight first round against Pat Barry, then locking on a fight-ending triangle and surviving a Barry slam which only tightened the hold in the second round.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The long and relatively-lean frame of Struve provides both his greatest strengths and weaknesses inside the cage. On the mat Struve’s long limbs make it easier for him to catch opponents with submissions, and he has finished half his wins with taps. His reach allows Struve to keep opponents on the outside of their own range when Struve is properly working his jab and straight punches. On the other hand, when opponents are able to get inside on Struve, he is often outmuscled and able to be battered by tight punches, which cost Struve dearly in losses to Nelson and dos Santos, and nearly did in his bout with Paul Buentello.

Fantasy Impact

I strongly dislike this match-up for Struve. While Herman didn’t dazzle in his debut, he doesn’t have a history of breaking easily, and has lots of power in his hands which makes me doubtful Struve can last 15 minutes against him. If Struve is to win, it will likely come by way of an early submission so take him in round one with the tap. In fantasy betting Struve is a +100, slightly less payoff than the Vegas books, and I’d advise against playing on the Dutchman in any form.

Dave Herman analysis after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Spring training approaches, meaning draft season is on the way as well. Now's as good of a time as any to unveil the latest in Fake Teams' series of draft rankings, our tiered model. This is a format I have used for a few seasons now, and have continued to tweak and refine, in the hopes of giving you even more accuracy every spring.

There are five different tiers. Five-star players are the best, and one-star players are your more fungible fantasy assets. For the sake of easy understanding, star rankings generally come down to their auction values and the number of categories they should contribute to. A five-star player is expected to be worth at least $30 of production and contribute in all five categories, a four-star player worth at least $20 and good for four categories, three-star players are $10 and up (and, you guessed it, three categories), two-star are your single-digit buys that you hope to get value out of, and one-star are the kind of guys you throw $1 at and hope to get something out of. But if not, hey, it was just $1.

Organizing players like this allows you to differentiate between the remaining assets at your draft, and make the proper decisions in terms of timing. If the last four-star first baseman just went off the board, and you need a first baseman, but all of a sudden you see there are 10 very similar three-star first basemen still on the board... what's the rush? Try to find a four-star player at another position instead, as these rankings, constructed out of projected dollar values and categories, work across position. That's why you would have seen Buster Posey as both a three-star catcher and three-star first baseman in the 2011 rankings, even if he has more value as a catcher: he's a three-star player, as position was already taken into account in the creation of the star rating.

This also allows you to throw all of the positions together into one huge list, ranked by tier, and be able to see a loosely-organized but complete list of every player's fantasy value on draft day. And, since Fake Teams already has rankings that come at you from different angles than this, my hope is to just give you one more tool and viewpoint with which you can work on succeeding with this year.

Continue reading this post »

If you're looking for a surprise in 2012, I'd say you should take a look at the Reds. Or maybe it's not a surprise? I just haven't heard very many people talk about the Reds as a World Series contender (CAIRO predicts 87 wins and a 2nd place finish) but all you really need to do is make the playoffs and then everyone has an equal chance basically.

I think the Reds can (Nay, WILL!) win the NL Central. No more Pujols, no more Prince, 50 less games of Braun while the Reds got better. That's one way to start to close a 17 game gap from 2011.

So, what's up with the Reds most important fantasy players? Let's take a look.

Best Hitter: Joey Votto

Maybe I was selling him short, but before Votto left the team for a depression-related illness in 2009, I didn't think he was a future star. When he came back though, he was clearly on a path to be one of the best players in the game and he won the MVP in 2010.

Last year he hit .309/.416/.531 with 40 2B, 29 HR, 101 R and 103 RBI. He led the league in OBP, walks, and doubles.

Continue reading this post »

It’s that time of year where players like Matt Moore, Yu Darvish, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper garner all the headlines across the internet (understandable considering the elite talent they each possess). Fantasy baseball players love the new shiny toys and the potential that young budding stars and prospects can provide, but it’s important not to forget about the stalwarts of the MLB. Drafting a veteran past his prime is likely to induce more yawns than "oohs" or "ahhs" from your league mates, but don’t let that stop you. Such players are often consistent, key contributors to fantasy baseball head-to-head (H2H) points league championships, players like Carlos Lee of the Houston Astros.

There’s no shine left on El Caballo and entering 2012 he’s much more boring than "buzz worthy," but, neither truths change the fact that over the last three seasons few outfielders or first basemen (Lee qualifies for both positions in ’12) have been more consistent than Lee in H2H points league scoring.

Continue reading this post »

Zack Greinke Player Projection No. 61 | Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove

It's great to see Zack Greinke getting the love he deserves. He was one of the most unlucky pitchers in 2011, and yet one of the most dominant. Among the league leaders in K/9 and BB/9. I am expecting more of 2009. I will be investing as a solid #1.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline - #10 Starting Pitcher; Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN.com - #12 Starting Pitcher & #39 Overall; RotoChamp - #54 Overall; Mock Draft Central - #12 Starting Pitcher & #48 Overall Projection: This could probably come back to bite me, and if any of the guys I play in leagues with read this I'm screwed, but I really like Greinke this year. I probably like him too much. His division has gotten easier this year compared to last. To me, his floor is last season, and ceiling is Cy Young Award. Personally, I'm leaning closer to Cy Young Award. 18 W, 2.98 ERA, 215 K, 1.12 WHIP in 220 IP.

To Draft Or Not To Draft: Why Brandon Belt Is Not A Lock To Produce In 2012 | Rotoprofessor

What Brian Sabian is doing in SF can infuriate. Playing time will be a question mark, but a healthy Bandon Belt will force his way into playing time. I expect Belt and Mesoraco to be strong ROY contenders. Invest!!!!

Belt still showed off his power in 2011 and there is a ton of potential, but it is hard to consider him a lock to produce in 2012. First, he may not get the opportunity. Second, he needs time to adjust to the upper levels of professional baseball. I would expect him to open the year at Triple-A, getting regular AB and trying to figure things out. If he does and the Giants need an offensive boost, then he should get an opportunity. Unfortunately, he is going to need something (Huff/Schierholtz struggles for example) to get that chance. Is it likely to happen? Yes, but don’t consider it a given.

Continue reading this post »

Pitchers and catchers report for most teams starting this Saturday, and we at Fake Teams have been hard at work reformulating our positional rankings so that you'll be ready on draft day. Ray, Jason, and I will reveal our latest rankings position by position over the next several days, and Marc will be chiming in with his own tiered ranks as well. You can keep up with all of Fake Teams' ranks via our Google Docs spreadsheet:

Fake Teams 2012 Fantasy Baseball Ranks

These catcher ranks are for a standard 5x5 mixed league. I've included 30 players, followed by a few brief explanations, especially where there are deviations from previously published ranks, which can be found here (mixed league) and here (league-specific). Kevin has also published catcher ranks for head-to-head points leagues, which may be found here.

2012 Mixed League 5x5 Catcher Rankings

1. Carlos Santana, CLE

2. Brian McCann, ATL

3. Matt Wieters, BAL

4. Mike Napoli, TEX

5. Buster Posey, SF

Continue reading this post »