FanPost

Pittsburgh Vs Arizona in Super Bowl 50? Not likely...

Part I

If you’re a Madden fan like me you’ve already bought and played Madden 16. And if you’ve played it that means you also sat through that awesome Super Bowl 50 "preview" game between Pittsburgh and Arizona. That was sarcasm by the way if you didn’t catch it. If the Madden creators really think that those two teams will be playing in the Super Bowl I can only say one thing. Go home Madden, you’re drunk!

Oh wait, I get it. Pittsburgh has Ben Roethlisberger who’s going to be the best QB in the 2015-2016 season and his two offensive juggernauts in Brown and Bell will probably combine for 500 yards and 5 TDs per game right? Wrong…very…very wrong.

You’ll get no argument from me in saying that Brown and Bell are two of the best players at their position however; Roethlisberger is not in that same category as a QB. I’m sure all of you Pittsburgh fans are saying but…but…we were 11-5 last year, we have a solid offensive line, put up 27 points per game and Roethlisberger, Brown and Bell had career years.

Well allow me to take a giant dump all over your hope and dream sandwich and serve you up some fact fries…Everything above is correct but have you stopped and asked yourself how a team with a slightly above average QB, albeit a top O-line, and sub-par defense was able to win 11 games while three players had career years? I have three words for you. Are you ready? Strength of schedule. I know this is going to sound crazy but believe it or not, the quality of your opponents actually has an effect on the outcome of games and player production. Here is a perfect example…

I give you the 2013 Denver Broncos. The 6th worst pass defense, number 1 overall offense, career years by Manning, Demaryius Thomas (TDs), Decker (Yards), Julius Thomas (Yards/TDs), Moreno (Everything), and a 13-3 record. Now I hate to take anything away from Manning because he is my favorite QB but he would not have put up those God-like numbers if Denver’s strength of schedule were not as easy as it was. The AFC West, Denver’s division, was one of the worst, if not the worst that year and they played each of those teams twice. They also played all of the NFC East teams (AVG 22nd ranked defense), and AFC South teams (AVG 17th ranked defense).

Do those numbers for the Broncos look familiar to any of you Steeler fans? Well they should considering last year Pittsburgh had the 6th worst pass defense and 2nd overall offense. The AFC North, Pittsburgh’s division, had an average 17th ranked defense. They also played every NFC South (AVG 25th ranked defense) and AFC South team (AVG 20th ranked defense).

Boom! Has your mind been blown yet?…Well don’t worry, I have more. Now take a look at the chart below and tell me if you notice any other similarities between the 2013 Broncos and 2014 Steelers. I’ll wait…

DENVER BRONCOS 2013-14 SEASON

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2014-15 SEASON (11-5)

OPPONENT

ALLOWED YPG

RECORD

WIN/LOSS

OPPONENT

ALLOWED YPG

RECORD

WIN/LOSS

KANSAS CITY X2

24TH

11-5

2 W

CLEVELAND X2

23RD

7-9

W & L

OAKLAND X2

22ND

4-12

2 W

BALTIMOREX2

8TH

10-6

W & L

SAN DIEGO X2

23RD

9-7

W & L

CINCINNATIX2

22ND

10-5-1

2 W

BALTIMORE

12TH

8-8

W

CAROLINA

10TH

7-8-1

W

NEW YORK GIANTS

8TH

7-9

W

TAMPA BAY

25TH

2-14

L

PHILADELPHIA

29TH

10-6

W

JACKSONVILLE

26TH

3-13

W

DALLAS

32ND

8-8

W

HOUSTON

16TH

9-7

W

JACKSONVILLE

27TH

4-12

W

INDIANAPOLIS

11TH

11-5

W

INDIANAPOLIS

20TH

11-5

L

NEW YORK JETS

6TH

4-12

L

WASHINGTON

18TH

3-13

W

TENNESSEE

27TH

2-14

W

NEW ENGLAND

26TH

12-6

L (OT)

NEW ORLEANS

31ST

7-9

L

TENNESSEE

14TH

7-9

W

ATLANTA

32ND

6-10

W

HOUSTON

7TH

2-14

W

KANSAS CITY

7TH

9-7

W

AVG: 21ST

120-128

13-3

AVG: 19TH

114-139

11-5

48% WINS

45% WINS

Are you done? Ok good…You don’t have to be an analyst to realize that the Broncos and Steelers had nearly identical schedule strengths between the two years. The Broncos average game in 2013 was against a 21st overall defensive team with a sub .500 record while the Steelers average game in 2014 was against a 19th overall defensive team with a sub .500 record. Both teams won their divisions and lost to solid defensive teams in either the Super Bowl (Denver) or the first round of the playoffs (Steelers).

Now that I’ve explained how the Denver and Pittsburgh players had career years in 2013 and 2014, allow me to break down why Roethlisberger will not be one of the top QBs this year and how Pittsburgh likely won’t even make the playoffs, let alone make it to the Super Bowl *cough* Madden…

First, let’s take a look at the Steelers schedule this season along with how those teams performed last year:

Week 1: @ New England (12-4) – 29 PPG and allowed 20 PPG **Won Super Bowl**

Week 2: Vs San Francisco (8-8) – 19 PPG and allowed 21 PPG

Week 3: @ St. Louis (6-10) – 20 PPG and allowed 22 PPG

Week 4: Vs Baltimore (10-6) – 26 PPG and allowed 19 PPG ** Playoff Team**

Week 5: @ San Diego (9-7) – 22 PPG and allowed 22 PPG

Week 6: Vs Arizona (11-5) – 19 PPG and allowed 19 PPG **Playoff Team**

**Watch out: Super Bowl 50 preview!!!**

Week 7: @ Kansas City (9-7) – 22 PPG and allowed 18 PPG

Week 8: Vs Cincinnati (10-5-1) – 23 PPG and allowed 22 PPG **Playoff Team**

Week 9: Vs Oakland (3-13) – 16 PPG and allowed 28 PPG

Week 10: Vs Cleveland (7-9) – 19 PPG and allowed 21

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: @ Seattle (12-4) – 25 PPG and allowed 16 **Lost in Super Bowl**

Week 13: Vs Indianapolis (11-5) – 29 PPG and allowed 23 PPG **Playoff Team**

Week 14: @ Cincinnati (See Above)

Week 15: Vs Denver (12-4) – 30 PPG and allowed 22 PPG **Playoff Team**

Week 16: @ Baltimore (See Above)

Week 17: @ Cleveland (See Above)

To make things easier I had the teams projected to have a top 10 pass defense highlighted in green and the top 15 in yellow but it's not showing up, oh well.

The combined 2014 records for the teams that Pittsburgh will be playing this season are 147-107 (58% winning percentage), 7 of which were playoff teams last year; to include the Super Bowl Champion Patriots and runner up Seahawks. That is a 13% bump up from their opponents last year and equates to a 9-7/10-6 average record and 21 points allowed per game. I have the Steelers division, the AFC North, projected as the 2nd hardest defensive division, the NFC West as the 3rd hardest and the AFC West ranked 4th. So Pittsburgh will be playing against 11 top 15 pass defenses and in 7 of their games Big Ben will have a top 10 pass rush in his face…I won’t even touch on how good a lot of the offenses are on that list that also have a top defense. I think you all are smart enough to figure that out.

So as you can hopefully see, that doesn’t exactly look like a schedule that an average QB will be able to produce another career season off of, even with a top WR and RB. I have Pittsburgh missing the playoffs this year with a 7-9 record; 9-7 at best if Roethlisberger can conjure up two more 6 TD games like last year. So they’ll be 7-9.

If one of the so-called "experts" can please explain to me how Roethlisberger is supposed to have the best year of any QB this season please enlighten me because everything I’ve looked at and analyzed says the opposite. And as you can see, I’ve analyzed a lot of information.

In Part II I’ll break down why Arizona also won’t be a Super Bowl team…stay tuned.