It happens to us all. You've finally gotten into a full mock draft and things are going great. Then the eighth round rolls around and 8 people declare themselves the winners of the draft and drop out. This leaves your once-full draft a shell of what it used to be and hardly worth your time.
But the joke is on those guys. It's easy to draft stars in seven rounds of a mock draft and declare yourself the Fantasy Footballer Victorious. Those of us who have been managing fake football teams for a while know that leagues can be lost with a poor draft in the late rounds. A strong late-round draft, though, is the first block in building a championship team.
With that in mind, here are five running backs that are currently being drafted in the sixth round or later that are in position to out-perform their Average Draft Position (ADP). I'll give you the player, current ADP, current RB ranking, deployment, and why they'll out-perform their ADP. (ADP data comes from Fantasypros.com.) All players are currently being drafted with an ADP of 81 or greater, making them ninth-round or later picks in ten team leagues.
1) Pierre Thomas
Current ADP: 91
Current RB Rank: 32
Deployment: High-end flex with RB2 upside
Pierre Thomas has been held back by the running back committee in New Orleans. Last year he led the committee in rushing attempts and receptions. So why is this year different? Darren Sproles is no longer in the picture. With Sproles gone, Thomas has the opportunity to take over a bigger piece of the running pie for the Saints. Last year Sproles had 53 rushing attempts and 89 targets. While some of that work will go to Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, Thomas is the lead guy of the committee. This puts him squarely in the usable-flex tier, but an injury to Ingram or Robinson gives him RB2 upside. His value gets an extra boost in PPR leagues.
2) Terrance West
Current ADP: 111
Current RB Rank: 38
Deployment: Low-end RB2
Johnny Manziel isn't the only Browns rookie who could make a splash in the fantasy football world this year. Terrance West is in position for a potential breakout rookie year. The only person in front of him on the depth chart is Ben Tate and, let's be honest, Tate isn't likely to stay healthy the entire season. It's also not assured that Tate will be at the top of the depth chart all year. Mike Pettine said he was shocked with West's performance in camp and that he wasn't far behind Tate. When Tate loses his starting job whether due to injury or performance, West will be the guy to step up and take the load in a run-heavy offense. It's not a great offense, but a starting job is a starting job and part of fantasy football production is opportunity. You might have to stash this guy on your bench for a few weeks, but, mark my words, he will be the starter in Cleveland and for your team this year.
3) Jeremy Hill
Current ADP: 132
Current RB Rank: 44
Deployment: Flex with RB2 upside
Don't get me wrong, Gio Bernard is the featured back right now in Cincinnati. But Jeremy Hill has overtaken BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the short-yardage and goal-line back for the Bengals. The coaching staff is planning on using Bernard and Hill in the pass-catching game out of the backfield, but Hill is already a better pass blocker than Bernard. This gives him an edge over Bernard that could allow Hill to play more in the passing game than Bernard. If he does get the game opportunity in the passing game, Hill could easily put up RB2 numbers, especially in PPR leagues.
4) David Wilson
Current ADP: 148
Current RB Rank: 47
Deployment: RB2 with RB1 upside
This ADP won't be here for long. David Wilson was recently cleared for football activities after a neck injury last year. Reports from camp say that Wilson is showing his freakish athletic ability and explosiveness on the field. It also seems Wilson has gotten a handle on his ball security. If he truly is back from his injury, the inferior Rashad Jennings will not be able to hold him off very long, maybe not even until the start of the season. Also, if the Giants get their offense back on track, Wilson has an outside chance to get into the RB1 range if he gets opportunity early and stays healthy. Even if he rises to sixth round or so, he's still an attractive value play.
5) Carlos Hyde
Current ADP: 145
Current RB Rank: 49
Deployment: RB2 upside
I really tried not to put more rookies in this list than veterans, but Carlos Hyde's opportunity is too big to pass up. The injury bug is tearing through the San Francisco backfield this preseason. Kendall Hunter tore his ACL, Marcus Lattimore started camp on the PUP list, and LaMichael James dislocated his elbow. This all puts the number 2 running back burden squarely on Hyde's shoulders. Frank Gore is on the wrong side of thirty and, thus, quite capable of losing a step in his game. All Hyde needs to do is perform when he gets his chances and wait for Gore to underperform or go out with an injury and the starting job is his. Unlike West, this is a dream starting job for a young running back. Stash Hyde on your bench and wait for his opportunity to break out.
So there you have it, five running backs who will go late in your draft but could seriously outperform their ADP. Grab these guys, put them on your bench, and wait for them to get their opportunity to be weekly starters for your fantasy team.