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Beware of the Sophomore Slump

In the fantasy football world, we make a number of our decisions based on clichés and caveats, often to our demise. "Avoid running backs over the age of 30," "Stay away from rookie receivers," "Bank on the third-year wide receiver breaking out!" Some carry more weight than others, but the fact is these caveats are created after a series of trends that seem to occur year-after-year. However, there is one trend in recent years that doesn’t seem to be getting as much attention as it should: the running back sophomore slump, and with four rookie rushers finishing within the top-20 at the position in 2013, it may be time for this trend to become a caveat.

Over a five-year period from 2008-2012, nine rookies finished as a top-20 Running Back. In 2008, Matt Forte finished third with 241.5 fantasy points (Per NFL.com standard scoring,) Steve Slaton was seventh (221.9,) Chris Johnson 11th (206.8,) and Kevin Smith at 18 with 172.1 points. In 2009, Knowshon Moreno finished 17th with 162 points, and it was not until 2012 that another rookie finished top 20. Doug Martin, finished second with 262.6 points, Alfred Morris, fifth (241,) Trent Richardson, ninth (203.7,) and Mikel Leshoure 20 with 149.2 points.

Of those nine rookies, only four finished in the top-20 their second season (Forte, Johnson, Moreno, and Morris,) and of those four, only Chris Johnson had an increase in fantasy points his sophomore year. It’s bad enough that over half of these star rookie RB’s fell into the sophomore slump. It gets even worse when you see that despite finishing in the top-20, Forte and Morris’ sophomore points were 81.5 and 69 points less than their rookie campaign, respectively. If you drafted either in the first round of their sophomore year those stat lines were a massive let down.

Of course there are a number of different things that can be attributed to these poor seasons. Defensive coordinators can better game plan for the RB, coaching changes, and of course, injuries. Mikel Leshoure was out before the season started with a knee injury. Doug Martin, although he struggled to start the season, was out by week-six with a bum shoulder, and many others missed time on their way to a poor season. Some of injuries are just bad luck, but it could also be that second year backs coming off of successful year not preparing enough in the offseason for the vigor of a second NFL campaign.

So what am I saying here, that you should completely avoid second year running backs? Not exactly, just that it is best to use caution when selecting them on draft day. The fact is, the sample size of one NFL season (or less with injuries,) for a second year running back is too small to know what kind of player they really are.

Of course any 2013 rookie sensations have the potential to become the next CJ2K sophomore phoneme in 2014, but recent history says it’s much more likely they see a dip in their production, one that may even place them out of the top-20 come seasons end.

With Eddie Lacey, Le’veon Bell, Geo Bernard all likely to be gone by midway in the third round, fantasy owners should at least consider the hole their team will be placed in if their top running back, and high draft pick falls to the sophomore slump. It would be a very risky move to bank on the same production from a small sample when you can draft a more reliable veteran, or stud wide receiver.

It’s time for owners to game-plan for the sophomore slump before this trend becomes cliché.

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