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Wait on QB this year… or don’t

For the past couple years, the most popular fantasy football mantra has been "quarterback is deep, you can wait on it". On one hand, that seems to be good advice as 38 points separated the number three and number ten quarterbacks (NFL.com standard scoring, 6 point passing TDs).

On the other hand, Peyton Manning (QB1) outscored Ben Rothlisberger (QB10) by 204 points, or 12.75 points per game. No other position had such a disparity in points scored. Those that drafted Manning last year had a huge advantage from the QB slot (even Drew Brees [QB2] was outscored by a little over 5 points per game by Peyton).

This year there is a clear QB1 tier with Manning, Brees and Rogers. Manning is number 1 in my projections with Brees and Rogers as close runners-up. Denver’s stability on offense bodes well for another blockbuster performance from the mile-high Manning.

So, while you can wait on a quarterback and remain largely competitive with almost everyone in your league, there will be those that take the plunge and draft a QB early. History suggests those owners that take an elite QB will be rewarded with consistently high performances.

While you can pencil in 30 points a week from Manning, Rogers and Brees, wasting a pick in the middle rounds on QB is a worse idea than that time when I tried to start up No Pants Thursdays at work. Why take Matthew Stafford in the 5th (QB6, 333 points last year) when you can get Ben Rothlisberger (QB10, 315 points last year) with the last pick of your draft? Is a pick in the 5th round really worth 18 points for a 16 week season (it isn’t just last year where we see this trend, this has been going on for a while now)? You could be picking up a starting running back with question marks (Trent Richardson, Ben Tate) or get lucky and pick up Jordan Cameron in the 5th. Do you really want to miss out on that high value lotto ticket to take a Stafford or Luck over Rothlisberger or Romo?

So when it comes to waiting on quarterback, remember Yoda’s advice, do or do not.

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