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Is Doug Martin worthy of 1st Round Pick?

Doug Martin is a player that I have gone back and forth on all off season. Is he a guy I want to roll with this fantasy football season? Looking at ADP in Mock Drafts, Doug Martin is currently selected 9.2 overall. Is this too high or too low for Doug Martin? Lets take a look.

Martin's rookie season, his overall numbers were off the charts for a rookie. Martin finished with 1454 Rushing Yards and 11 Rushing TDs averaging 90.8 yards per game. He added 472 Receiving Yards and 1 Receiving TD. Pretty impressive overall numbers leaving Martin with 1,926 total yards and 12 TDs. This left Martin scoring a total of 264.6 points in standard scoring leagues, leaving him with an average of 16.53 FPPG (Fantasy Points Per Game). Those are some impressive numbers however, when you take away his two huge games, the numbers start to change. In week 8, Martin finished with a 214 total yards and 2 touchdowns while in week 9, he tallied 272 total yards and 4 touchdowns. Half of Martin's touchdowns came from 2 games. Subtracting those 2 games from his overall numbers, The Mighty Hamster finishes the 2012 campaign with 798 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 372 receiving yards with 0 TDs totalling 1,170 total yards and 6 TDs. His points per game drop to 10.5. Weeks 8 & 9, in his rookie campaign, seems as if they are the 2 outliers when figuring out who Doug Martin is and the 2013 numbers support this claim.

In 2013, a shoulder injury ended Martin's season prematurely. His final totals on the year were 456 rushing yards with 1 TD and 66 receiving yards with 0 TDs giving Martin an average of 9.7 FPPG. His 9.7 average is lower than this 2012 numbers of 10.5 taking away his two monster games. Anyone who drafted Doug Martin in the first round was thoroughly disappointed in his production long before he was lost for the season.

This off season, Lovie Smith gave the injured RB the vote of confidence siting that the Buccaneers will play a smash-mouth type game and looks at Doug Martin to be an integral part of the game plan going forward. Fast forward to the 2014 NFL draft, the Bucs selected Charles Sims with their 3rd round pick. When asked about Sims, Coach Smith said, "(Sims) gives us a little more in the passing game than what we've had." SAY WHAT?! With Sims on the roster, he won't cut into Martin's lead role being the primary RB on 1st and 2nd downs but when faced with a 3rd down, count on Sims being the RB that Coach Smith uses in the backfield. This will take 2 to 8 touches away from Martin each game.

The 2014 schedule does not look promising for Tampa Bay playing tough teams such as Carolina, Atlanta (2), New Orleans (2), Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Green Bay. In fantasy football playoffs, Martin squares off again Detroit, Carolina and Green Bay. He faces 1 enormously tough defense in Carolina and 2 offensive juggernauts in GB and Detroit. Martin will have difficulties running again CAR and the TB will likely be playing catch up, going heavy on the pass while ditching the run. Tampa Bay will be down in a lot of their games this season, not only during fantasy playoffs, and will go pass heavy leaving Martin without as many carries as he's accustom to.

2014 Outlook:

1,072 Rushing Yards

8 Rushing TDs

222 Receiving Yards

1 Receiving TD

Total Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.46

At his currently average draft position, Doug Martin is not worthy of a 1st round pick. There are plenty of RBs that I would take ahead of him. If you are picking anywhere from the 7 to 12 slot, I would consider drafting Lacy, Lynch, Foster, Ball and Le'Veon Bell before taking Martin. Doug Martin makes a very good RB2 and I would target him within the 15 to 24 range but definitely not with my 1st round pick nor an early 2nd. Let someone else take an early chance on Martin because the real Doug Martin only nets you 9.5 to 11.46 FPPG, not exactly great numbers from a perceived RB1.

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