Today I am going to completely flip the script on you guys, and not put out a lineup, but point out what games should be exploited. The DraftKings card is split in to two, and I am not really crazy about any of the options. There are a lot of aces pitching tonight so we have to pick our spots carefully.
The highest total tomorrow is in Colorado (real original Vegas) set at 9.5, but if you have been paying attention over the last couple of games they have gone under, and if my memory serves me right, I am pretty sure two out of three games went under the last time these two teams faced off in Colorado. So what is my take on this game? Everybody will be stacking Rockies and Giants, me personally I'll look to fade the game. The only players I would look to roster are Hunter Pence ($4,900) and Michael Morse ($4,600) - obviously I am expecting Buster Posey to sit out this game again.
The second game I will look at is the Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers. The Tigers will throw out Robbie Ray, a rookie lefty, against a Rangers team that has the sixth highest wOBA (.337) against LHP, seventh in OPS (.765), and fourth in average (.283). With that being said I will be looking to stack right handed Ranger hitters - Elvis Andrus ($4,200), Alex Rios ($4,700), Adrian Beltre ($5,200) are all obvious options, but look to Rougned Odor ($2,000) and Michael Choice ($3,100) for cap relief.
Now that I told you my favorite stack, and hitters for the early games, I will move on to pitching. Ironically I think there is a ton of value with the cheapest pitcher on the board - Henderson Alvarez ($6,600) of the Miami Marlins. Why is there value in Alvarez? Well for starters he has a 2.33 ERA at home, which include two complete games. Second off he is facing the Philadelphia Phillies, a team which is in ranked in the lower tier against right handed pitching (I am sure they don't fare well against LHP either). If you want value go with Alvarez, he might throw another gem today, or he could throw a dud, either way in GPPs you need to zig when they zag.
Now that you got an idea what direction I am leaning towards in the early games I'll go over the late card. I think tonight will be a night where you should pay for pitching; the highest total is 7.5 (Astros/Mariners and Diamondbacks/Cardinals). The best pitcher on the board is Zack Greinke ($12,100) a price that is quite steep and would have you looking to punt at least two positions. A cheaper alternative to Greinke would be Matt Garza ($9,200) who takes the mound against the Atlanta Braves. Garza is of course a bigger risk than Greinke, but he is almost $3,000 less which is the essentially the price of Jonny Gomes (not that he is playing during the late card).
Two pitchers I see as high risk/high reward plays are Wei-Yin Chen ($7,300) and Eric Stults ($5,800). Chen is facing the Indians at home. The Indians pretty much have the worst advanced statistics against LHP. I won't bore you and throw out a bunch of random stats/numbers, but in layman's terms - they suck against lefties. On the flip side, the Indians erupted against the Tigers the last few days so tread carefully in case the Indians are making some sort of surge. Eric Stults on the other hand is facing the Cubs in his pitcher friendly home park. The Cubs have the highest K% against left-handed pitching (26.3%), which is always a bonus when drafting a pitcher who doesn't have a high K/9 - actually Stults has a brutal K/9 (4.11), but it should see a bit of an uptick against the Cubs.
With the night games having so many good pitchers playing, and the Vegas lines being so low I will point out a few players that stand out to me.
Freddie Freeman ($4,700) is the first one on my list - he is batting .400 against Garza in his career with a homer, and Freddie is usually a good producer for points as well.
Robinson Cano ($5,100) - Cano is really starting to heat up, he hit his second dinger yesterday against the Rangers, and tonight he gets to abuse RHP Jarred Cosart of the Houston Astros.
Scott Van Slyke ($3,200) - This could be a sneaky play if he is in the lineup today, at his price it is almost a punt. Van Slyke mashes LHP and could do some damage tonight in Queens against Jon Niese.
Adam Eaton ($3,800) - Another value play, Eaton leads off for the White Sox, who aren't as scary without Jose Abreu, but are still managing to put up some runs on the board. With the short porch in Yankee stadium and David Phelps pitching, Eaton could have a big night.
To recap everything - stock up on Rangers, pay for pitching at night, don't be scared to take risks. Yes this was an unconventional piece - I see it more as a road map for tonight's' games. If you have any questions feel free to message me on Twitter, I will do my best to respond.