While giving fantasy advice to a near and dear cousin of mine, the proposed trade had him offered Josh Hamilton for Hunter Pence straight up. Now keep in mind this was days before Josh Hamilton’s recent set back, and my immediate response was, no way . From the silence that followed for10 seconds, he finally came back to reality and asked why not? The simple answer is "Consistency"
Let’s get something off the shelf here. Hunter Pence is no Josh Hamilton. Hamilton’s ceiling is that of a top 5 O/F in all of baseball. The man won AL MVP not long ago, and take away last year’s short comings should be thought of as a higher ranked O/F than Pence. But here’s the kicker. Hamilton is not consistent and never has been all while being targeted as a top option in the O/F. Hunter Pence for the past 4 seasons has been my secret weapon of choice in all formats of fantasy as he usually sits around .280avg mark or better while hitting 20-30hr and swiping some bags every season. Yet for some reason Pence falls outside of the top 30 O/F drafted every year MINUS that of this year, which is why I failed to pick him up on any team that I own. You see, I would never draft Hunter Pence around the same spot as I would draft Josh Hamilton, but then again I would never draft Hamilton due to his high risk of uncertainty.
I suppose now you’re yelling, but we’re not talking draft strategy, we are talking about a 1 for 1. Mono a Mono. How on earth can one pass up Hamilton for a Pence? When you’re maintaining your team(s) throughout the year you've already taken chance/risk/ceiling into consideration during your draft. The time is now to hold on/trade for players that will give you the results that you can bank on. Hamilton or Pence? Pence is, and was the simple answer here.
Sure enough 3 days later Hamilton went on the shelf for 4+ weeks and I asked my cousin "remember the time I told you to let Hamilton go?" His easy response was "winning!"