NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitchers

Denis Poroy

Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for starting pitchers. Let's see how the rankings from the Fake Teams writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings.

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for starting pitchers according to the ADP data from the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) courtesy of NESN.com.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus starting pitcher rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

The NFBC drafters are more confident in Marlins ace Jose Fernandez than we are, but I have to say, I am starting to think he could end the season as the #1 starter in the game. He is fun to watch, and he apparently biked about 600 miles this offseason to build his leg strength, which helps pitchers work deeper into games.

It appears the NFBC drafters are in love with some of the young starters who made their big league debuts in 2013, including Cardinals starter Michael Wacha, Danny Salazar and Tony Cingrani. All three ware terrific last season, but none of them pitched more than 105 innings, and Wacha made just nine starts before dominating in the NLDS and NLCS. 2014 is a different year, and there is no guarantee they will perform well this season. I advise not drafting them until you have at least one of our top 12-15 on your roster.

One pitcher who I am starting to have my reservations about is Tigers ace Justin Verlander. His fastball velocity has declined over the last three to four seasons, and his WHIP rose to 1.30 last season, so he was much more hittable than in previous seasons. I wouldn't want to draft him as if he is still a top 10-12 starter, as there are several pitchers ranked below him that I prefer, including Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, David Price, and James Shields to name a few.

If you want a late round pick, who is no longer a sleeper, try to grab Padres starter Tyson Ross, as he was pretty dominant in the second half of the season, striking out a batter per inning and inducing ground balls at a 50% clip.

Another guy I like late in drafts is Indians hurler Corey Kluber, as he had a bit of a breakout last season, winning 11 of his 24 starts with a sub 4.00 ERA, a strikeout to walk rate over 4.00 and a ground ball rate over 45%.

Starting Pitchers ADPs

Fake Teams Rank

Rank

Player

Team

ADP

1

1

Clayton Kershaw

LAD

6.14

2

2

Yu Darvish

Tex

17.34

5

3

Max Scherzer

Det

30.14

10

4

Jose Fernandez

Mia

32.62

8

5

Stephen Strasburg

Was

33.66

3

6

Adam Wainwright

StL

33.78

4

7

Felix Hernandez

Sea

43.35

6

8

Cliff Lee

Phi

43.7

11

9

Madison Bumgarner

SF

47.07

12

10

Justin Verlander

Det

47.16

7

11

Chris Sale

CWS

48.1

10

12

David Price

TB

55.39

14

13

Zack Greinke

LAD

61.15

13

14

Cole Hamels

Phi

67.64

15

15

Anibal Sanchez

Det

78.06

16

16

Jordan Zimmermann

Was

88.59

42

17

Michael Wacha

StL

92.38

25

18

Gerrit Cole

Pit

92.77

18

19

James Shields

KC

97.64

23

20

Gio Gonzalez

Was

98.24

22

21

Hisashi Iwakuma

Sea

100.42

21

22

Mike Minor

Atl

100.85

19

23

Matt Cain

SF

102.22

17

24

Mat Latos

Cin

104.5

20

25

Homer Bailey

Cin

107.8

24

26

Alex Cobb

TB

114.3

29

27

Kris Medlen

Atl

115.39

30

28

Masahiro Tanaka

NYY

116.45

32

29

Shelby Miller

StL

121.57

26

30

Julio Teheran

Atl

123.61

28

31

Matt Moore

TB

128.13

49

32

Danny Salazar

Cle

131.66

36

33

Jered Weaver

LAA

138.51

48

34

Tony Cingrani

Cin

146.32

34

35

Hyun-jin Ryu

LAD

151.15

38

36

Andrew Cashner

SD

157.96

31

37

Francisco Liriano

Pit

165.46

27

38

Doug Fister

Was

167.79

39

39

Patrick Corbin

Ari

169.99

33

40

Jon Lester

Bos

173.3

37

41

Jeff Samardzija

ChC

177.24

45

42

Johnny Cueto

Cin

181.05

40

43

C.J. Wilson

LAA

183.04

43 (Gray)

44

Neftali Feliz/Sonny Gray??

Tex

196.75

41

45

Clay Buchholz

Bos

198.41

35

46

Justin Masterson

Cle

200.38

46

47

CC Sabathia

NYY

207.61

58

48

Zack Wheeler

NYM

215.35

52

49

R.A. Dickey

Tor

215.87

56

50

Lance Lynn

StL

216.39

65

51

Marco Estrada

Mil

220.93

74

52

Taijuan Walker

Sea

223.6

55

53

Chris Archer

TB

225.76

66

54

A.J. Griffin

Oak

229.58

47

55

A.J. Burnett

Phi

237.12

56

Brandon Beachy

Atl

238.48

54

57

Ubaldo Jimenez

Bal

243.46

64

58

Chris Tillman

Bal

243.59

44

59

Hiroki Kuroda

NYY

245.81

53

60

Tim Lincecum

SF

245.98

50

61

Matt Garza

Mil

251.88

69

62

Dan Straily

Oak

261.5

63

Alex Wood

Atl

263.38

60

64

Jarrod Parker

Oak

263.63

73

65

Tyson Ross

SD

264

51

66

Corey Kluber

Cle

264.5

67

Scott Kazmir

Oak

265.99

59

68

Dan Haren

LAD

266.93

57

69

Yovani Gallardo

Mil

268.63

71

70

Ian Kennedy

SD

272.57

61

71

Jake Peavy

Bos

274.53

63

72

John Lackey

Bos

282.13

67

73

Rick Porcello

Det

287.35

74

Jose Quintana

CWS

287.71

62

75

Ervin Santana

KC

290.43

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