Top Prospects: 2014 Consensus Top 200 Fantasy Prospects, Part 2

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The prospect staff at Fake Teams have put together their top consensus fantasy prospects, and continue with the release of prospects 51-100.

It's been a long offseason, and with baseball games already being played, the prospect staff here at Fake Teams has finished up the last of their coverage plan with the completion of our consensus top 200 fantasy prospects. We've seen changes in our staff, but as always our aim is to provide the readers with as much coverage of the minor leagues as possible for your dynasty and keeper formats. The top 200 will be split into three parts: Top 50, 51-100, and 101-200.

Our Process

After participating in the discussion of each team's list over the offseason, our prospect staff submitted an initial top 200 list of prospects. We pulled those lists together, and gave each player ranked a set amount of points based on each list's ranking, starting with 200 points for the #1 prospect on each list, and so on. Once we had our initial list, we discussed players where we felt one ranker may have been out of step in either direction. The goal wasn't necessarily to change that ranker's mind about their ranking, but more to get an understanding of their concerns regarding the prospect.

For each prospect, we are providing their ranking on the individual lists of Jason Hunt, Brian Creagh, and Matt Mattingly, as well as the overall consensus ranking based on our points system. In addition, I (Jason) have gone through and estimated the start level and league for each player for the 2014 season, as well as an approximate ETA to the majors. These are all educated estimates, and we will likely find out that players are going elsewhere as the spring wears on.

The Usual Reminders

You've probably heard it before, but any time you prepare a ranked list of any kind, it bears repeating. This list is a snapshot of a moment in time, and will likely change at any given point in the future. We believe that these are the top 50 fantasy prospects right now collectively, but each writer had their own opinion on where each prospect belongs on their own list. So you'll see players that are ranked differently by each of our writers, some very substantially. This is the first time Fake Teams has ever produced a set of prospect rankings this deep, and we're very proud of the work we've done this offseason. We welcome your comments and questions, and want discussion to follow along with these lists.

While I will not be writing up every prospect in our rankings (you can see quite a few of them in our Minor League Keeper Thoughts series from this year), I will be providing some notes on a lot of them. I'm also dividing the rankings up into groups of 10. These are not tiers or specifically divided that way for a reason other than I wanted to divide them into more manageable groups, so don't read too much into the specific separations. With that, let's get into the rankings.

Consensus Rank Player Team Position Ranking Points Jason Brian Matt Exp. 2014 Start Level and League Exp. MLB ETA
51 Alex Meyer MIN RHP 449 63 56 41 AAA - International 2014
52 Henry Owens BOS LHP 448 50 62 49 AA - Eastern Late 2014
53 Jonathan Singleton HOU 1B 446 51 68 44 AAA - Pacific Coast 2014
54 Kohl Stewart MIN RHP 446 61 54 48 Short Season 2017
55 J.P. Crawford PHI SS 445 73 30 61 Low-A - Sally 2017
56 David Dahl COL OF 442 47 35 85 Low-A - Sally 2017
57 Lucas Sims ATL RHP 435 52 67 55 High-A - Carolina 2016
58 Tyler Glasnow PIT RHP 435 56 76 42 High-A - Florida State 2016
59 A.J. Cole WAS RHP 432 36 55 86 AA - Eastern Late 2014
60 Mookie Betts BOS 2B 425 72 38 74 AA - Eastern 2015

  • There are extremely conflicting reports on what J.P. Crawford can be for fantasy owners moving forward. He is considered a solid hitter, but with little power to speak of as of now. He's a lock to stay at shortstop long-term, so the threshold he would need to pass to be a usable hitter isn't that high, and his advocates believe strongly that he will end up an excellent hitter. He's definitely a player to watch this season, as he could be 30 spots higher with a good offensive year.
  • It was a lost year for David Dahl, and as a result now might be the time to try to buy low on the Rockies' prospect. A year ago we were looking at a potential fantasy monster who would play at Coors Field, and realistically I don't think the ceiling has really changed on him. There is some risk, especially with him losing the full year of development due to suspension and injuries, but he's another prospect who could jump these rankings with a good year.
  • I am a big fan of Nationals' prospect A.J. Cole, and really wish the A's hadn't traded him back to the Nats. He put together a great year in 2013 after a lost season between the California League and Low-A in 2012, and has put himself on the map to be in the rotation for the Nationals by season's end potentially.
  • Mookie Betts may be one of the few prospects on this list where his situation forced me to drop his ranking a little bit. Keith Law noted that he may be the most blocked prospect in the minors, and while I think he has similar upside potential to Arismendy Alcantara, there is almost no path that is clear enough to be visible to get him into Boston's lineup right now.
Consensus Rank Player Team Position Ranking Points Jason Brian Matt Exp. 2014 Start Level and League Exp. MLB ETA
61 Raimel Tapia COL OF 423 76 39 71 Low-A - Sally 2017
62 Kyle Crick SF RHP 421 67 91 30 AA - Eastern 2015
63 Hunter Harvey BAL RHP 420 49 52 88 Low-A - Sally 2017
64 Matt Davidson CHW 3B 412 62 63 72 MLB 2014
65 Phillip Ervin CIN OF 410 58 89 52 Low-A - Midwest 2016
66 Matt Barnes BOS RHP 408 68 65 68 AAA - International Late 2014
67 Matt Wisler SD RHP 407 65 70 67 AAA - Pacific Coast Late 2014
68 Dominic Smith NYM 1B 397 69 86 57 Low-A - Sally 2017
69 Jake Marisnick MIA OF 389 46 94 80 AAA - Pacific Coast Mid 2014
70 Hunter Renfroe SD OF 386 77 73 73 High-A - California 2016

  • Matt Davidson is a bit overlooked this year, as he walks into the starting third base job on the south side of Chicago. I don't think it will be particularly difficult for him to hit .270 with 15-20 home runs this year, and consistently moving forward.
  • The spectrum on Kyle Crick is one of the wider ones amongst pitching prospects. There's still the potential for the high upside #2 type of starting pitcher, but there's also the possibility that he cannot make the adjustments needed and ends up as a high-leverage reliever with the potential to be a closer long-term.
  • Jake Marisnick had a poor major league debut last year, but should still be the starting center fielder for the Marlins by season's end. He's capable of providing 10+ home runs along with 15-20 stolen bases, and I think that may be on the low end.
Consensus Rank Player Team Position Ranking Points Jason Brian Matt Exp. 2014 Start Level and League Exp. MLB ETA
71 D.J. Peterson SEA 3B 385 80 47 97 High-A - California 2015
72 Hunter Dozier KC 3B 378 90 77 64 Low-A - Sally 2016
73 Joey Gallo TEX 3B 376 70 101 62 High-A - Carolina 2016
74 C.J. Edwards CHC RHP 373 86 57 93 AA - Southern 2015
75 Reese McGuire PIT C 370 93 71 75 Low-A - Sally 2017
76 Sean Manaea KC LHP 365 94 51 99 High-A - Carolina Late 2015
77 Tim Anderson CHW SS 359 64 33 153 Low-A - Sally 2017
78 Alexander Guerrero LAD 2B 349 118 88 54 MLB 2014
79 Eduardo Rodriguez BAL LHP 345 79 80 105 AAA - International Late 2014
80 Blake Swihart BOS C 343 97 78 91 AA - Eastern Late 2015

  • Joey Gallo is known for his top flight power potential, and in spite of the ridiculous strikeout rate, is making that power play in game. If we thought he could hit for at least a passable average (.245+), he'd probably be in the top 50 instead.
  • The initial reports on Sean Manaea this spring are making it sound like we're all going to be too low on him, and that the injury concerns should be mostly behind him. He could be a quick mover if everything goes smoothly this year.
  • The book on Alexander Guerrero hasn't been written yet, but it's a bit worrisome that there are rumblings that Dee Gordon may start the season as the starting second baseman in spite of Guerrero's contract and arrival. It will be worth watching as we get closer to the start of the season, but I do think that Guerrero ends the season as the starter even if he doesn't start as it.
Consensus Rank Player Team Position Ranking Points Jason Brian Matt Exp. 2014 Start Level and League Exp. MLB ETA
81 Stephen Piscotty STL OF 335 53 66 155 AAA - Pacific Coast Late 2014
82 Kolten Wong STL 2B 335 54 139 81 MLB 2014
83 Nick Williams TEX OF 335 110 44 120 High-A - Carolina 2016
84 Garin Cecchini BOS 3B 332 66 129 82 AAA - International Late 2014
85 Braden Shipley ARI RHP 332 102 79 96 High-A - California Late 2015
86 Jesse Winker CIN OF 320 75 136 78 High-A - Florida State 2016
87 Jesse Biddle PHI LHP 316 105 90 98 AAA - International Late 2014
88 Dan Vogelbach CHC 1B 315 82 149 63 High-A - Florida State 2016
89 Rymer Liriano SD OF 313 60 142 94 AAA - Pacific Coast Late 2014
90 Casey Kelly SD RHP 307 91 107 104 AAA - Pacific Coast Late 2014

  • Dan Vogelbach came into camp this year 30 pounds lighter, and if it helps with his mobility enough to keep him as a first baseman instead of a future designated hitter, his value could jump a lot. He still will have solid value in dynasty formats even if he does end up as a DH-only option in the future, but will need to continue to hit at each level to ensure that value.
  • Liriano and Kelly are two prospects who missed all of last year due to injury, but both could be in San Diego by the end of the season in starting roles. Your opportunity to buy low on both of them could be passing, especially Liriano who has the potential to be a 20 HR/20 SB outfielder.
  • Cecchini is a name to remember if you're in an OBP league, as he has shown an elite ability to get on base so far in the minors. There are questions about how much power he will hit for down the line, but he's definitely a name that would move up about 20-25 spots in OBP leagues.

Consensus Rank Player Team Position Ranking Points Jason Brian Matt Exp. 2014 Start Level and League Exp. MLB ETA
91 Jimmy Nelson MIL RHP 305 114 74 116 MLB 2014
92 Alen Hanson PIT 2B 305 129 92 83 AA - Eastern 2015
93 Courtney Hawkins CHW OF 297 74 127 111 High-A - Carolina 2016
94 Brian Goodwin WAS OF 296 71 111 131 AAA - International Late 2014
95 Rafael Montero NYM RHP 293 124 85 107 AAA - International Mid 2014
96 Ryan McMahon COL 3B 292 143 53 121 Low-A - Sally 2017
97 Jonathon Crawford DET RHP 291 166 60 92 High-A - Florida State 2016
98 Billy McKinney OAK OF 289 88 95 137 Low-A - Midwest 2017
99 James Paxton SEA LHP 287 99 153 70 MLB 2014
100 Erik Johnson CHW RHP 277 104 118 110 MLB 2014

  • The tools keep me looking at Courtney Hawkins, but the assignment that the White Sox gave him last year may have stunted his development some. There's still the potential for a 20 HR/20 SB outfielder there as well. If he can go out and make the necessary adjustments, he could be back in the top 50 at season's end.
  • A name that could also move way up this list in 2014 is Ryan McMahon. A power hitting third baseman, McMahon could turn into a .280/25 HR hitter with the potential to provide true four-category production in a huge offensive environment.
  • Both Paxton and Johnson are lined up to get a shot at a spot in their team's starting rotations this spring, and while Nelson could be also, I think Johnson is the most likely to get one. All three would be deep league plays or streaming options for this year.

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