Baseball Prospectus NL Only Mock Auction Draft Results

Rob Tringali

Ray goes over the team he drafted in the Baseball Prospectus NL only mock auction draft that took place more than a week ago.

Mike Gianella from Baseball Prospectus was kind enough to invite me to participate in the Baseball Prospectus NL only mock auction draft about a week and a half ago. I was very excited to participate, as I have been playing in NL only auction leagues for at least 20 years now, and I wanted to see how the rest of the fantasy industry was valuing players heading into the 2014 season.

This draft also helps me for two of my NL only auction keeper leagues, to an extent. Both leagues have some inflation, which is always present in auction keeper leagues, but the inflation in one of my leagues is very tame when compared to my New York City based keeper league, so the draft results will be pretty comparable to what I can expect on draft day.

Before I get to the auction result, here are the participants in the BP NL only mock auction:

The Participants

  • Baseball Prospectus - Mike Gianella
  • Fake Teams - Ray Guilfoyle
  • Fantasy Trade 411 - Terrance Bridgett
  • KFFL - Tim Heaney
  • Roto Wire - Nick Shlain
  • Patton and Company - Keith Cromer
  • Real Time Sports - Jeff Paur
  • Roto Wire - Kenn Ruby
  • The Dynasty Guru - Ryan Potter
  • The Fantasy Fix - Brett Talley
  • Wise Guy Baseball - Gene McCaffrey
  • Regular Guy - Brian Green-Young
My NL only draft results

Fake Teams

Ray Guilfoyle

C

A.J. Ellis

4

C

Jose Lobaton

1

1B

Adrian Gonzalez

26

2B

Neil Walker

13

SS

Troy Tulowitzki

36

3B

Pedro Alvarez

20

CO

Gaby Sanchez

1

MI

Chris Owings

3

OF

Ryan Braun

31

OF

Giancarlo Stanton

32

OF

B.J. Upton

11

OF

Charlie Blackmon

6

OF

Jordan Schafer

1

UT

Javier Baez

2

P

Trevor Rosenthal

23

P

Zack Greinke

25

P

Addison Reed

13

P

Jorge de la Rosa

4

P

Mike Leake

2

P

Drew Storen

1

P

Tyler Clippard

3

P

Noah Syndergaard

1

P

Brian Wilson

1


Quick Thoughts

I came into this draft expecting to pay for a couple ace or near ace starting pitchers, but instead did just the opposite. I did not prepare much for this draft, as the consensus rankings series has kept me quite busy since the end of January. With that said, my 20+ years of auction draft experience and offseason rankings and research work left me prepared enough to know what a fair price is for players we would bid on.

My first purchase was Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, who I purchased for $31. Based on the winning bid, it appears many in the room are scared off by his PED suspension, probably wondering if his 30 home run power was the result of a long-term PED program. I am not in that camp, and think Braun will revert back to the Braun of old this season. ZiPS projects him to hit .290 with 33 home runs and 22 stolen bases this season. That's first round value in any league.

My next purchase was Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki at $36. It was more than I wanted to pay for him, but after seeing several of the top players at each position, namely Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen go for $40+, I felt that Tulo, with the injury risk and all, at $36 was a fair price to pay.

Once I won the bidding on Adrian Gonzalez at $26 and Giancarlo Stanton at $32, I knew my pre-draft strategy was out the window, and decided to focus my draft on hitters who played every day.

Once I realized I was going hitter heavy in this draft, I decided that I should grab one of the best power hitters in the game, Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez, despite the .230 average and 30% strikeout rate.

I did win the bidding on one ace starter-Zack Greinke-at $25, and did grab two closers in Trevor Rosenthal at $23 and Addison Reed at $13, I knew I wouldn't be winning the bidding on any second tier starting pitchers either.

I felt I got great value in winning the bidding on Braves outfielder B.J. Upton at $11. He is a year removed from a 20 home run, 30 stolen base season, and I see him bouncing back nicely in 2014.

Looking back, I think I would feel better about my team had I used the $23 I spent on Rosenthal on another starting pitcher or two.


The NL only auction results for all twelve teams:

Baseball Prospectus

Mike Gianella

Brian Green-Young

C

Carlos Ruiz

5

Travis d'Arnaud

8

C

Anthony Recker

1

Hector Sanchez

2

1B

Adam LaRoche

12

Brandon Belt

20

2B

Aaron Hill

20

Jordy Mercer

3

SS

Ian Desmond

26

Zack Cozart

7

3B

Ryan Zimmerman

22

Todd Frazier

14

CO

Matt Carpenter

21

Yonder Alonso

12

MI

Chase Utley

17

Tommy La Stella

1

OF

Starling Marte

24

Andrew McCutchen

44

OF

Will Venable

20

Jason Heyward

24

OF

Domonic Brown

18

Junior Lake

12

OF

Carlos Quentin

8

Nate Schierholtz

6

OF

Ryan Sweeney

1

Andrew Lambo

3

UT

Anthony Rendon

14

Gregory Polanco

3

P

A.J. Burnett

8

Jose Fernandez

29

P

Jim Henderson

12

Kenley Jansen

21

P

Andrew Cashner

15

Shelby Miller

17

P

Yovani Gallardo

8

Homer Bailey

17

P

Josh Johnson

4

Lance Lynn

7

P

Josh Beckett

1

Joaquin Benoit

4

P

Jason Hammel

1

Robbie Erlin

1

P

Brett Anderson

1

Carlos Martinez

2

P

Pedro Strop

1

LaTroy Hawkins

3

Fake Teams

Ray Guilfoyle

Fantasy Trade 411

Terrance Bridgett

C

A.J. Ellis

4

Devon Mesoraco

10

C

Jose Lobaton

1

Gerald Laird

1

1B

Adrian Gonzalez

26

Joey Votto

41

2B

Neil Walker

13

Martin Prado

21

SS

Troy Tulowitzki

36

Ed Lucas

1

3B

Pedro Alvarez

20

Greg Dobbs

1

CO

Gaby Sanchez

1

Mark Trumbo

25

MI

Chris Owings

3

Didi Gregorius

1

OF

Ryan Braun

31

Yasiel Puig

33

OF

Giancarlo Stanton

32

Jay Bruce

29

OF

B.J. Upton

11

Lucas Duda

11

OF

Charlie Blackmon

6

Denard Span

14

OF

Jordan Schafer

1

Scott Hairston

1

UT

Javier Baez

2

Joaquin Arias

1

P

Trevor Rosenthal

23

Hyun-Jin Ryu

17

P

Zack Greinke

25

Matt Garza

10

P

Addison Reed

13

Travis Wood

7

P

Jorge de la Rosa

4

Jason Grilli

17

P

Mike Leake

2

Tyson Ross

10

P

Drew Storen

1

Tim Linececum

6

P

Tyler Clippard

3

Ryan Vogelsong

1

P

Noah Syndergaard

1

Chris Capuano

1

P

Brian Wilson

1

Tyler Chatwood

1

KFFL

Tim Heaney

RotoWire
Nick Shlain

C

Wilin Rosario

23

Yadier Molina

20

C

Russell Martin

6

Nick Hundley

3

1B

Matt Adams

21

Allen Craig

26

2B

Josh Rutledge

6

Daniel Murphy

19

SS

Everth Cabrera

21

Andrelton Simmons

16

3B

Aramis Ramirez

16

Cody Asche

9

CO

Maikel Franco

2

Eric Chavez

1

MI

Dee Gordon

4

Alex Guerrero

6

OF

Justin Upton

28

Jayson Werth

24

OF

Matt Holliday

28

Angel Pagan

17

OF

A.J. Pollock

9

Andre Ethier

10

OF

Ryan Ludwick

7

Peter Bourjos

7

OF

Caleb Gindl

1

Juan Lagares

1

UT

Casey McGehee

1

Jake Marisnick

2

P

Cole Hamels

23

Clayton Kershaw

40

P

Kris Medlen

16

Gio Gonzalez

18

P

Marco Estrada

11

Steve Cishek

20

P

Huston Street

14

Jonathan Niese

7

P

Trevor Cahill

3

Tim Hudson

6

P

Jose Veras

7

Bartolo Colon

5

P

Ian Kennedy

8

Brandon McCarthy

1

P

Tanner Roark

1

Paul Maholm

1

P

Jenrry Mejia

3

Kevin Siegrist

1

Patton & Company

Keith Cromer

Real Time Sports

Jeff Paur

C

Welington Castillo

7

Jonathan Lucroy

19

C

Brayan Pena

1

Ryan Doumit

3

1B

Ryan Howard

15

Freddie Freeman

36

2B

Brandon Phillips

17

Darwin Barney

3

SS

Jimmy Rollins

16

Jean Segura

24

3B

David Wright

33

Chris Johnson

16

CO

Juan Francisco

1

Mark Reynolds

2

MI

Adeiny Hechavarria

2

Brandon Crawford

1

OF

Billy Hamilton

26

Carlos Gomez

32

OF

Curtis Granderson

20

Michael Cuddyer

22

OF

Eric Young Jr.

8

Darin Ruf

8

OF

Marlon Byrd

11

John Mayberry

1

OF

Gerardo Parra

9

Chris Heisey

1

UT

Rickie Weeks

2

Danny Espinosa

2

P

Rafael Soriano

15

Adam Wainwright

30

P

Jordan Zimmerman

18

Sergio Romo

16

P

Patrick Corbin

12

Matt Cain

21

P

Francisco Liriano

14

Rex Brothers

7

P

Zack Wheeler

12

Brandon Beachy

9

P

Johnny Cueto

13

Archie Bradley

3

P

Wandy Rodriguez

1

Jacob Turner

1

P

Vic Black

1

Josh Collmenter

1

P

Gavin Floyd

1

Santiago Casilla

2

RotoWire

Kenn Ruby

The Dynasty Guru

Ryan Potter

C

Evan Gattis

15

Miguel Montero

13

C

Tony Sanchez

1

Yasmani Grandal

7

1B

Garrett Jones

5

Paul Goldschmidt

43

2B

D.J. LeMahieu

6

Kolten Wong

10

SS

Cliff Pennington

1

Hanley Ramirez

31

3B

Luis Valbuena

1

Nolan Arenado

16

CO

Kris Bryant

1

Ike Davis

5

MI

Mark Ellis

1

Rafael Furcal

2

OF

Carlos Gonzalez

41

Bryce Harper

39

OF

Hunter Pence

31

Corey Dickerson

7

OF

Christian Yelich

19

Jon Jay

3

OF

Khris Davis

16

Chris Denorfia

4

OF

Cameron Maybin

9

Nate McLouth

2

UT

Donnie Murphy

1

Oscar Taveras

5

P

Stephen Strasburg

34

Gerrit Cole

22

P

Craig Kimbrel

26

Jeff Samardzija

12

P

Julio Teheran

19

Tony Cingrani

11

P

Michael Wacha

15

Alex Wood

7

P

Bronson Arroyo

5

Henderson Alvarez

2

P

Dillon Gee

4

Jhoulys Chacin

2

P

Kyle Lohse

7

Wily Peralta

5

P

J.J. Hoover

1

Mark Melancon

5

P

David Hernandez

1

Jason Motte

3

The Fantasy Fix

Brett Talley

Wise Guy Baseball

Gene McCaffrey

C

Buster Posey

29

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

11

C

George Kottaras

1

Wilson Ramos

15

1B

Anthony Rizzo

25

Justin Morneau

18

2B

Jedd Gyorko

18

Scooter Gennett

10

SS

Starlin Castro

17

Jhonny Peralta

13

3B

Pablo Sandoval

19

Chase Headley

17

CO

Mike Olt

1

Juan Uribe

5

MI

Marco Scutaro

6

Dan Uggla

5

OF

Matt Kemp

25

Chris Young

9

OF

Carl Crawford

21

Marcell Ozuna

7

OF

Michael Morse

10

Ben Revere

18

OF

Gregor Blanco

1

Seth Smith

5

OF

Drew Stubbs

4

Cody Ross

5

UT

Jose Tabata

1

Justin Ruggiano

11

P

Cliff Lee

30

Nate Eovaldi

7

P

Doug Fister

15

Aroldis Chapman

23

P

Bobby Parnell

13

Madison Bumgarner

28

P

Jaime Garcia

4

Mike Minor

18

P

Dan Haren

9

Mat Latos

18

P

Wade Miley

3

Jonathan Papelbon

13

P

Edwin Jackson

1

Charlie Morton

1

P

Brandon Kintzler

1

Jameson Taillon

2

P

Antonio Bastardo

1

Andrew Heaney

1



Some observations



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