NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis: Outfielders

Elsa

Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for outfielders, and advises to not buy into the Billy Hamilton hype, and consider the injury risk with Jacoby Ellsbury.

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for outfielders according to the ADP data from the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) courtesy of NESN.com.

Unlike the last few weeks, I am not including the Max and Min Pick data, as I had a real problem converting the table from the NESN site into Word, then into Excel then back into Word. There is probably an easier way to get their data into a clean table, but I have yet to find it.

In addition, I did not include the Fake Teams rankings for each player.

As you can see from the table below, the players names are in two different columns. I usually manually typed them in, but felt it would be too time consuming to type in 75 player names, so please accept my apologies for the looks of the table below.

Quick Thoughts

A few years ago, Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie reeled in the love of fantasy owners across the internet, only to disappoint them in 2012. Well, I think we have another one of those hyped up players on our hands heading into fantasy drafts this season. His name: Billy Hamilton.

Hamilton is being drafted as the 23rd ranked outfielder this season, ahead of Jason Heyward, Carlos Beltran, Jayson Werth, Josh Hamilton, and many others who I would draft before Hamilton. Hamilton's ADP indicates he is being drafted in FIFTH round of fantasy drafts. That's just insane! At that price, people are drafting him assuming he will play 150 games and will steal 60+ bases. He very well could, but that comes with plenty of risk.

Another player I think is being drafted way too early is Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. His NFBC ADP is 11.52, which is just too high for an injury-prone outfielder. Ellsbury, when healthy, is very valuable, but not first round worthy. Sorry, I just don't see it. He is being drafted ahead of Bryce Harper, Giacarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gomez, Jay Bruce, and several others who I would draft ahead of him.

The same can be said about Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, as he is being drafted in the second round of most drafts I have participated in or reviewed. He has just over 100 games of major league experience and could be a bust candidate this season. While I hope that is not the case, as I am a Dodgers fan and own him at $2 in an NL only keeper league, it is a possibility.

Puig's teammate Matt Kemp is also a big risk this season. He will start the season on the disabled list, but is still being drafted in the early fourth round of most drafts, which might be too much risk for many to take. I see his ADP falling as the season approaches.

NFBC ADP Rankings - Outfielders

Rank

Player

Team

Pick

1

Mike

Trout

LAA

1.18

2

Andrew

McCutchen

Pit

4.43

3

Carlos

Gonzalez

Col

8.06

4

Adam

Jones

Bal

9.25

5

Ryan

Braun

Mil

10.85

6

Jacoby

Ellsbury

NYY

11.52

7

Bryce

Harper

Was

12.55

8

Yasiel

Puig

LAD

22.12

9

Carlos

Gomez

Mil

23.42

10

Giancarlo

Stanton

Mia

27.34

11

Jay

Bruce

Cin

30.57

12

Alex

Rios

Tex

34.42

13

Justin

Upton

Atl

39.78

14

Shin-Soo

Choo

Tex

39.96

15

Jose

Bautista

Tor

40.69

16

Matt

Kemp

LAD

47.99

17

Hunter

Pence

SF

48.98

18

Matt

Holliday

StL

54.11

19

Starling

Marte

Pit

54.8

20

Mark

Trumbo

Ari

63.45

21

Wil

Myers

TB

66.22

22

Yoenis

Cespedes

Oak

68.92

23

Billy

Hamilton

Cin

70.28

24

Jason

Heyward

Atl

78.17

25

Josh

Hamilton

LAA

78.43

26

Jayson

Werth

Was

94.64

27

Alex

Gordon

KC

95.81

28

Carlos

Beltran

NYY

96.85

29

Domonic

Brown

Phi

109.89

30

Evan

Gattis

Atl

118.29

31

Alfonso

Soriano

NYY

119.36

32

Michael

Cuddyer

Col

123.52

33

Shane

Victorino

Bos

124.44

34

Desmond

Jennings

TB

126.57

35

Leonys

Martin

Tex

129.92

36

Curtis

Granderson

NYM

139.94

37

Coco

Crisp

Oak

143.83

38

Austin

Jackson

Det

150.21

39

Nelson

Cruz

Bal

171.3

40

Brett

Gardner

NYY

175.27

41

Torii

Hunter

Det

183.01

42

Alejandro

De Aza

CWS

184.43

43

Michael

Bourn

Cle

187.45

44

Christian

Yelich

Mia

187.73

45

Carl

Crawford

LAD

193.83

46

Norichika

Aoki

KC

194.75

47

George

Springer

Hou

195.84

48

Khris

Davis

Mil

198.02

49

Will

Venable

SD

199.53

50

Ben

Revere

Phi

206.82

51

Chris

Carter

Hou

210.54

52

B.J.

Upton

Atl

213.67

53

Avisail

Garcia

CWS

214.18

54

Dexter

Fowler

Hou

215.34

55

Adam

Eaton

CWS

218.21

56

Michael

Brantley

Cle

220.58

57

Eric

Young

NYM

226.06

58

Kole

Calhoun

LAA

231.46

59

Angel

Pagan

SF

236.36

60

Josh

Reddick

Oak

244.17

61

Colby

Rasmus

Tor

246.38

62

Marlon

Byrd

Phi

252.63

63

Nick

Markakis

Bal

259.47

64

Rajai

Davis

Det

261.81

65

Oscar

Taveras

StL

267.45

66

Oswaldo

Arcia

Min

271.24

67

Denard

Span

Was

274.3

68

Melky

Cabrera

Tor

288.24

69

Peter

Bourjos

StL

288.99

70

Kelly

Johnson

NYY

292.91

71

Josh

Willingham

Min

302.92

72

Dayan

Viciedo

CWS

307.16

73

Junior

Lake

ChC

308.28

74

Michael

Morse

SF

309.4

75

Cameron

Maybin

SD

311.67

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more position rankings, or plain old fantasy baseball goodness, make sure you check out Fantasy Rundown, your one place to get all things fantasy.

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