NFBC ADP Rankings Analysis: Third Base

Al Bello

Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for third baseman. Let's see how the rankings from the Fake Teams writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings.

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for third baseman to see how our consensus rankings fared against the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP rankings courtesy of NESN.com.

Along with the NFBC ADP rankings, the NESN site also provides the Max Pick and Min Pick data, which tells readers where the player was drafted the highest and the lowest thus far in the NFBC drafts.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus third base rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

We ranked Tigers third baseman/first baseman Miguel Cabrera as our #1 third baseman, as he is still eligible at third in most leagues, while the NFBC did not reflect him in their third base ADP rankings. After Miggy, the next six third baseman are ranked in the same order, so there is plenty of agreement there.

But, that is where the agreement ends and the disagreements begin, save the ranking for Kyle Seager and Matt Davidson. The Fake Teams writers are higher on Pablo Sandoval and Chris Johnson and lower on virtually every one else.

The largest discrepancies are in the rankings for Aramis Ramirez and Martin Prado. Frankly, I agree with the NFBC ranking as I ranked ARam as my 10th ranked fantasy third baseman in 2014. I also think the NFBC is too high on Martin Prado and Manny Machado, as Prado, while very good, doesn't hit for near enough power for me, and I don't see how Machado can be ranked ahead of some of the third baseman ranked below him.

If you are looking for some value plays at third base on draft day, grabbing Aramis Ramirez in the 10th round is solid value. I think his ranking is taking a hit due to age and injury concerns. Another value play is Braves third baseman Chris Johnson in the 17th round, as he will hit low digit home runs along with a high batting average which is sustainable due to his propensity to hit line drives.

I have seen Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre get picked in the first round of 13 and 15 team mock drafts, and that shouldn't surprise anyone. If healthy, he is a virtual guarantee to hit .290-.300 with 30 home runs and 90-100 RBI, with two on base machines in Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder ahead of him in the Rangers lineup.

NFBC ADP Rankings-Third Base

Fake Teams Rank

Rank

Player

Team

Avg

Min Pick

Max Min

2

1

Adrian Beltre

Tex

19.03

5

27

3

2

Evan Longoria

TB

22.6

14

35

4

3

David Wright

NYM

24.31

11

35

5

4

Ryan Zimmerman

Was

61.71

37

81

6

5

Josh Donaldson

Oak

70

35

90

7

6

Pedro Alvarez

Pit

81.99

53

124

16

7

Martin Prado

Ari

102.47

76

146

11

8

Manny Machado

Bal

112.44

66

181

9

9

Kyle Seager

Sea

115.06

74

146

12

10

Chase Headley

SD

149.66

107

180

17

11

Aramis Ramirez

Mil

154.37

101

200

10

12

Pablo Sandoval

SF

155.79

90

196

14

13

Brett Lawrie

Tor

156.33

112

188

15

14

Nolan Arenado

Col

171.31

120

222

18

15

Todd Frazier

Cin

207.44

152

300

20

16

Will Middlebrooks

Bos

219.43

168

314

25

17

Nick Castellanos

Det

256.2

182

312

22

18

Matt Dominguez

Hou

256.69

195

302

18

19

Chris Johnson

Atl

258.29

174

327

21

20

David Freese

LAA

279.56

203

341

23

21

Mike Moustakas

KC

292.1

193

348

27

22

Cody Asche

Phi

332.17

223

423

26

23

Trevor Plouffe

Min

352.93

254

502

24

24

Matt Davidson

CWS

374.71

273

509

NR

25

Lonnie Chisenhall

Cle

404.2

264

540

NR

26

Miguel Sano

Min

425.34

242

692

29

27

Juan Uribe

LAD

427.84

340

520

NR

28

Kris Bryant

ChC

445.77

106

626

NR

29

Alberto Callaspo

Oak

449.06

325

535

NR

30

Maikel Franco

Phi

450.22

288

633


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If you are looking for more position rankings, or plain old fantasy baseball goodness, make sure you check out Fantasy Rundown, your one place to get all things fantasy.

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