FanPost

Three starters to avoid next season; despite good core statistics

Pool

Every year there are a handful of starting pitchers who punch above their weight, so to speak. This small minority of pretending pitchers will fool you with strong core statistics, when in reality, the metrics paint an entirely different picture. Hence, it is almost out of necessity that one must dissect who has been 'lucky,' this season and in turn is likely to regress next season.

In order to decipher who is likely to regress in light of a solid, or brilliant campaign -- when evaluated by their core statistics like ERA -- there are several metrics I will focus upon: xFIP, SIERA, BABIP and LOB%. These, when compared with the bog standard and dying ERA, typically tell the real story. These beautiful metrics will unveil who has been overperforming in terms of ERA this year, and will regress next year.

You may ask, why are these metrics so beautiful, and consequentially being used? Well, evidently xFIP and SIERA are much more accurate versions of ERA, and therefore often unravel the false sense of ability ERA entrusts. Given the way fangraphs calculate LOB%, it isn't actually a literal percentage of runners left on base. Rather -- using their complicated calculation -- it becomes an accurate portrayal and substantive look into how many runners, on average, the pitcher leaves on base.

They also suggest that pitchers who pitch lower than the league average of 72%, should see their LOB% gravitate towards the league average. The same goes for 'lucky' pitchers, whose LOB% is higher than the league average. They should see it gravitate back down to the league average. Lastly, while BABIP alone, unlike what many people think, is not an accurate view into luck, when used in conjunction with other metrics and numbers - like strikeouts, as typically more strikeouts means softer contact - it can be seen when pitchers are giving up fewer hits than they actually merit.

Here are the three pitchers who are the most likely to have a huge regression next season:

Chris Young

First up, the biggest pretender of the year; Chris Young of the Seattle Mariners. To the untrained eye, Young had a brilliant campaign: Pitching to a 1.23 WHIP and a 3.65 ERA tune, behind Hisashi Iwakuma and Felix Hernandez is pretty great. However, Young has a SIERA of 5.24, an xFIP of 5.19, a 1.24 difference between his ERA and SIERA, a LOB% of 80.2 and a BABIP of .238, while only striking out on average 15% of batters. It is quite clear to see that the more accurate earned run average numbers - xFIP and SIERA - have Young as an awful pitcher contrary to what his actual ERA suggests.

Yet more, his huge LOB% of 80.2, will only, as aforementioned gravitate towards the league average of 72% next season, sequentially he will not be able to strand as many base runners as he has this year. Lastly, given that he only Ks 15% of batters, his BABIP of .238 clearly conveys Young has been stupendously lucky. Look for him next season to allow a lot more hits, strand less base runners, and in turn watch for his ERA to launch itself near to the 5.20 mark his SIERA and xFIP suggests it should have been this year. Young will be the biggest regressor of next season.

Shelby Miller

Once more, even though Shelby Miller has already regressed massively from last season, he is likely to regress yet more. Miller was vastly considered one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the game, joining a long line of talented St. Louis Cardinal pitchers, but things simply haven't gone to plan. His ERA has already elevated to a 3.74 mark, but it was still good enough to earn him the fourth spot on the Cardinals postseason rotation.

Combine his ERA of 3.74 and his WHIP of 1.27, and one may think he's having a solid year - nope, he is likely to be the second biggest regressor of next season. He owns a horrible SIERA of 4.60, an xFIP of 4.47, a .86 difference between his ERA and SIERA, a LOB% of 77, a BABIP of .256 while striking out a mere 16% of batters. All in all, like Chris Young the difference between his ERA and SIERA, his high LOB% - which once more will lower next season - and his low BABIP with low strikeouts convey he has been a lucky man this year. The right handed starter will show the second biggest regression of next year.

Edinson Volquez

Widely viewed as one of the best comeback pitchers of this year, don't allow Volquez and his basic statistics to fool you. The Pittsburgh Pirates were so fooled that they allowed him to take the ball in the most important and decisive game of their otherwise illustrious season. His performance, in which a limping San Francisco Giants offense hit him hard and often, is a more accurate representation of his ability. On the year he had a stellar ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.23, but the metrics tell a different story. A completely different tale, in fact.

His SIERA and xFIP were both 4.20, and hence, there was a huge difference of 1.16 between his ERA and SIERA. Yet more, he had a LOB% of 78, a BABIP of .263 and a strikeout percentage of 17. Once more, the latter numbers prove he's been getting a tad lucky as hitters aren't making hard contact, but aren't finding holes in the defense. His skill interactive earned run average also hints at how he might perform next season. Volquez, will be another huge regressor next year.