ADP Rankings Analysis: First Base

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for first basemen. Let's see how the rankings from the Fake Teams writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings.

Today we take a look at the average draft position data for first basemen to see how our consensus first basemen rankings fared against the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) ADP rankings courtesy of NESN.com.

Along with the NFBC ADP rankings, the NESN site also provides the Min Pick and Max Pick data, which tells readers where the player was drafted the highest and the lowest thus far in the NFBC drafts.

In addition, I thought it would be helpful to include the Fake Teams consensus first base rankings in the table below to see how close the collective rankings of eight independent writers fared vs the NFBC ADP rankings. The NFBC rankings are collected from all the NFBC drafts that have completed to date. Each of the NBC drafts consist of 15 teams and 30 rounds, so the data is a good barometer for where players are being drafted.

Quick Thoughts

First base seems to have a consensus across the industry as the first 12 - 13 first baseman are being drafted accordingly. There is no question who the #1 fantasy first baseman is, Miguel Cabrera, followed by the top first baseman from 2013, Paul Goldschmidt. Those two are followed by Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Prince Fielder, Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman,

In fact, if you want one of the top seven first baseman, you will have to select them within the first two rounds of drafts this season, as they all own an ADP of 23 or lower. I participated in a 12 team, mixed mock draft on Tuesday night with some other fantasy writers, and the top six first baseman were drafted in the first 14 picks of the draft, in this order:

Cabrera

Goldschmidt

Votto

Davis

Encarnacion

Fielder

Freeman was drafted with the 43rd overall pick in the middle of the fourth round, followed by Eric Hosmer with the 44th overall pick. Diamondbacks outfielder Mark Trumbo, who also qualifies at first base, was drafted with the 46th overall pick. So, the results of this draft tell you two things: 1) if you want a top first baseman, grab one early, and 2) power is being drafted early (Pedro Alvarez was selected at #55 overall).

Getting back to the ADP data, after the top 12-13 first baseman are off the board, that is where the differences of opinion come into play, as there are some differences of opinion on when to draft White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu and Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams. Both have big time power, and are break out candidates in 2014.

There is a wide difference of opinion toward the end of the top 30 first baseman, as Fake Teams writers did not rank four of the last five first baseman in the top 30 first baseman being drafted in the NFBC drafts, including Adam Dunn, Yonder Alonso, James Loney and Mitch Moreland.

NFBC

Fake Teams

Player

Pos

Pick

Min Pick

Max Pick

1

1

Miguel Cabrera

Det

1.89

1

5

2

2

Paul Goldschmidt

Ari

3.14

2

4

3

3

Chris Davis

Bal

7.27

3

14

4

4

Joey Votto

Cin

16.81

8

48

5

6

Prince Fielder

Tex

19.3

11

97

6

5

Edwin Encarnacion

Tor

19.32

12

64

7

7

Freddie Freeman

Atl

22.84

12

35

8

10

Albert Pujols

LAA

47.43

22

176

9

9

Eric Hosmer

KC

50.05

23

70

10

11

Allen Craig

StL

51.92

26

70

11

8

Adrian Gonzalez

LAD

59

38

168

12

13

Mark Trumbo

Ari

68.73

37

101

13

12

Anthony Rizzo

ChC

112.57

83

152

14

19

Jose Abreu

CWS

118.81

51

226

15

23

Matt Adams

StL

131

69

215

16

16

Brandon Belt

SF

139.38

66

190

17

15

Mike Napoli

Bos

144.27

87

294

18

20

Brandon Moss

Oak

151.57

104

217

19

22

Kendrys Morales

Sea

159.59

94

202

20

21

Mark Teixeira

NYY

192.38

111

343

21

24

Nick Swisher

Cle

213.41

138

364

22

27

Justin Morneau

Col

217.84

153

348

23

26

Ryan Howard

Phi

225.95

165

447

24

28

Corey Hart

Sea

228.84

176

323

25

29

Adam Lind

Tor

238.97

198

416

26

NR

Adam Dunn

CWS

267.94

213

368

27

30

Adam LaRoche

Was

278.19

229

427

28

NR

Yonder Alonso

SD

297.38

205

379

29

NR

James Loney

TB

299.65

219

394

30

NR

Mitch Moreland

Tex

344.22

230

445

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more position rankings, or plain old fantasy baseball goodness, make sure you check out Fantasy Rundown, your one place to get all things fantasy.

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