Fake Teams Consensus Rankings - Projections Part I

1B Positional Replacement Value: Mitch Moreland - Jim McIsaac

Yesterday, you hopefully saw Ray’s post announcing the schedule for the Fake Teams 2014 Consensus Position Rankings. Starting next week, you’ll have the best morning, break, lunch, break, ride home and bathroom-time reads. This post is to introduce the associated projections, positional scarcity adjustments and auction ($) values.

Introduction:

Yesterday, you hopefully saw Ray's post announcing the schedule for the Fake Teams 2014 Consensus Position Rankings. Starting next week, you'll have the best morning, break, lunch, break, ride home and bathroom-time reads.

As part of the rankings, my 2014 Player Projections will be provided for reference. My rankings are based solely on their 5x5 output, but that's often not enough to evaluate a player's true fantasy impact. That's why the contributors here at Fake Teams will (consensus-ly) delve into each position to provide player profiles and prospect impact so that these rankings can also provide value for your different league types (keeper/dynasty and even AL/NL formats). Naturally we'll provide you with targets, players to keep at poles' length, but we'll also focus on ADP trends. Think of it as a weekly all-encompassing positional draft kit.

If you need further analysis, you can send requests to us at Rotobanter, where we'll either post content based on the questions or aggregate the questions for Fake Teams' podcasts. Comment away in each post to banter with the author and other Fake Teams contributors.

Onto the Projection Approach:

I'm not going to provide the ground-up process, but 3-year historical data is pulled from FanGraphs through a customizable player profile format that parallel's my projection tool. The data is outputted into 3 year averages as well as trended/weighted based on age and skill-sets (through certain ‘clusters' of peripherals). Most projection systems automatically trend certain skills and/or regress other skills back to their career/3-year average - including mine, but I keep the ability to go in and make manual adjustments if I catch some significant new approach. One example is Justin Masterson's 7% fastball-slider swap last year. This is something that I think is sustainable (since it's a repertoire change) so long as the additional breaking-ball usage doesn't cause him strain. I'll get more into Pitch F/X and the incorporation of that when I post the pitcher projection approach on Thursday. This post will focus on A) how I personally rank the players, B) adjust for position scarcity and C) associate auction values. The specific hitter projection approach will get posted Wednesday morning. The pitcher projection approach will get posted Thursday morning.

...Now on with the Borophyll...

Rankings, Positional Re-adjustments and Auction Values:

While the hitter and pitcher specific segments might provoke some banter, it's this section I can see stimulating zeal. I'll break it down as follows:

1) Projection Integrity: $ values are only as good as the projections associated.

2) Z-Scores vs. "SGP": There are other approaches to landing on fantasy and $ values, such as "SGP" or Standings Gain Points. Technically this approach is more parallel to Rotisserie Leagues in that you're trying to be in 1st place in a specific category (or all categories ideally), but in my opinion this incorporates additional variables into your evaluation...not only do you have to put players on the same (categorically) and different (positional) scales, but now you have to make assumptions on your league type e.g. Last year you needed 175 Stolen Bases to win that category, but in 2012, you only needed 155. I prefer categorical (and then summed) z-scores (number of standard deviations that value is away from the categorical mean). So for homeruns, you take a player's HR total, subtract it by the average HR total for players with a significant enough amount of at-bats (400) and then divide that by the HR standard deviation: HRtotal - meanHR)/ sdHR.

If you want the z-scores/categorical values for all the 5x5 stats from my projections, go into the 2nd tab here.

3) Z-sum/Fantasy Value: Sticking with the 5x5 stats, we find the z-score for each 5x5 category - R,HR,RBI,SB and AVG which has to be weighed by AB and then re-z-scored. The sum of all 5 z-scores is our z-sum or "Fantasy Value."

4) Positional Adjustments: ****It's important to z-sum before the positional adjustment because initially, we want to understand the actual categorical values in relation to the full player pool. We don't want to understand the categorical values within each position because that will heavily and overly weigh stolen bases for catchers and first baseman as an example. Some think adjusting for positional scarcity is unnecessary...you're simply trying to accumulate the most counting stats (and best average), but the argument and reality is, If you have two players with the same exact surface stats and one is a catcher and one is a first baseman, then a hundo% you want the catcher.

Another important clarification - I didn't make this stuff up. It's what Zach Sanders on FanGraphs calls Fantasy Value Above Replacement.

After you have the z-sum or "Fantasy Value," it's now time for the positional adjustment. In order to adjust by position, we need to understand the number of teams and roster requirements i.e. how many 1b you require so that we can define your "replacement player" in each position. It's not as easy as defining your 13th 1B as the replacement player (in a 12 team league) because teams are also probably drafting 1B for the corner infielder and utility slots in their lineups.

***I will not only look at the roster requirements. I will also look at the fantasy value (z-sum) drop-off levels. Another possible option is finding the average replacement z-sum for each position (which Tanner Bell of Smart Fantasy Baseball (and I'm sure others) use).

Let's say 24 first baseman wind up being drafted to man the 1B, CI or U spots on your roster, that means the 25th 1B is your "replacement level." This happens to be Mitch Moreland who has a -1.68 z-sum. This means that him and every other 1B (above and below his fantasy value) gets 1.68 added to their z-sum value. Freddie Freeman which was at a 5.83 is now at a 7.51. -1.68 is our 1b replacement value, which is highlighted in bold below. The fantasy value is the ‘zSum' column; The positional adjustment is the ‘Pos.Adj.' column and we'll get to the $ value in a bit.

Age

Name

Pos

AVG

zAvg

AdjAvg

zAdjAvg

HR

zHR

SB

zSB

R

zR

RBI

zRBI

zSum

Pos.Adj.

26

Paul Goldschmidt

1b

0.300

1.61

915.53

1.786

34

2.24

14

0.40

96

1.80

103

2.00

8.22

9.90

31

Edwin Encarnacion

1b

0.271

0.16

82.51

0.113

34

2.29

7

-0.22

91

1.47

106

2.19

5.85

7.53

24

Freddie Freeman

1b

0.295

1.38

795.16

1.544

26

1.18

1

-0.75

90

1.42

110

2.44

5.83

7.51

28

Chris Davis

1b

0.271

0.14

79.99

0.108

38

2.77

2

-0.70

89

1.31

109

2.33

5.82

7.50

30

Prince Fielder

1b

0.286

0.94

547.18

1.046

29

1.60

1

-0.79

82

0.82

104

2.05

4.73

6.41

30

Joey Votto

1b

0.297

1.46

754.61

1.463

22

0.73

5

-0.42

93

1.59

86

1.04

4.41

6.09

24

Eric Hosmer

1b

0.294

1.30

785.82

1.526

21

0.54

12

0.27

86

1.10

84

0.94

4.37

6.05

38

David Ortiz

1b

0.288

1.03

508.50

0.969

25

1.04

1

-0.80

76

0.41

92

1.38

3.00

4.68

32

Adrian Gonzalez

1b

0.289

1.07

623.33

1.199

21

0.52

1

-0.79

72

0.18

98

1.74

2.85

4.53

29

Allen Craig

1b

0.298

1.50

760.19

1.474

17

0.08

2

-0.71

71

0.06

97

1.65

2.56

4.24

28

Billy Butler

1b

0.294

1.34

765.84

1.485

18

0.15

0

-0.87

70

0.04

95

1.56

2.36

4.04

24

Anthony Rizzo

1b

0.258

-0.50

-298.16

-0.651

28

1.47

6

-0.34

77

0.51

91

1.33

2.32

4.00

34

Albert Pujols

1b

0.273

0.25

130.04

0.209

24

0.92

3

-0.61

71

0.10

89

1.21

1.84

3.52

26

Brandon Belt

1b

0.282

0.71

355.24

0.661

17

0.02

6

-0.36

74

0.30

68

0.02

0.64

2.32

31

Kendrys Morales

1b

0.278

0.50

274.52

0.499

21

0.56

0

-0.88

66

-0.30

79

0.61

0.49

2.17

30

Brandon Moss

1b

0.253

-0.78

-338.45

-0.732

26

1.19

2

-0.65

70

-0.01

80

0.67

0.47

2.15

35

Victor Martinez

1b

0.293

1.29

732.34

1.418

11

-0.71

0

-0.87

67

-0.18

81

0.72

0.37

2.05

27

Chris Carter

1b

0.235

-1.70

-798.62

-1.656

29

1.63

1

-0.75

66

-0.24

83

0.86

-0.16

1.52

33

Mark Teixeira

1b

0.245

-1.19

-523.66

-1.104

24

0.93

1

-0.79

67

-0.21

81

0.76

-0.41

1.27

32

Mike Napoli

1b

0.247

-1.07

-493.78

-1.044

22

0.64

1

-0.80

70

-0.01

79

0.64

-0.58

1.10

33

Justin Morneau

1b

0.268

0.02

10.43

-0.031

18

0.18

0

-0.88

64

-0.41

77

0.53

-0.60

1.08

31

Corey Hart

1b

0.252

-0.80

-376.22

-0.808

21

0.59

3

-0.60

68

-0.11

72

0.25

-0.67

1.01

25

Matt Adams

1b

0.272

0.23

85.62

0.120

21

0.57

0

-0.88

57

-0.91

68

-0.02

-1.12

0.56

33

Nick Swisher

1b

0.253

-0.75

-400.37

-0.856

20

0.48

1

-0.76

72

0.12

62

-0.33

-1.35

0.33

28

Mitch Moreland

1b

0.253

-0.77

-332.48

-0.720

21

0.61

0

-0.88

59

-0.75

69

0.05

-1.68

0.00

27

Justin Smoak

1b

0.247

-1.05

-490.16

-1.036

21

0.60

0

-0.88

63

-0.48

68

0.02

-1.78

-0.10

27

Yonder Alonso

1b

0.283

0.76

373.21

0.697

9

-0.94

4

-0.50

50

-1.39

68

-0.02

-2.14

-0.46

34

Adam LaRoche

1b

0.242

-1.31

-646.85

-1.351

19

0.26

1

-0.75

65

-0.33

65

-0.17

-2.35

-0.67

30

Adam Lind

1b

0.257

-0.58

-256.49

-0.567

19

0.26

0

-0.88

58

-0.83

60

-0.44

-2.45

-0.77

30

James Loney

1b

0.272

0.21

108.61

0.166

10

-0.85

1

-0.75

49

-1.44

71

0.15

-2.72

-1.04

34

Ryan Howard

1b

0.242

-1.33

-510.08

-1.076

19

0.26

0

-0.88

47

-1.60

70

0.11

-3.18

-1.50

26

Logan Morrison

1b

0.255

-0.68

-288.55

-0.632

15

-0.25

1

-0.76

52

-1.24

60

-0.45

-3.34

-1.66

34

Adam Dunn

1b

0.202

-3.35

-1563.72

-3.192

25

1.09

0

-0.88

52

-1.24

76

0.46

-3.76

-2.08

28

Lucas Duda

1b

0.242

-1.34

-510.88

-1.078

17

0.09

0

-0.88

50

-1.39

55

-0.75

-4.00

-2.32

27

Ike Davis

1b

0.232

-1.84

-713.83

-1.485

17

0.08

2

-0.67

50

-1.38

55

-0.78

-4.23

-2.55

30

Mark Reynolds

1b

0.216

-2.65

-1121.23

-2.303

19

0.26

2

-0.65

51

-1.29

60

-0.44

-4.43

-2.75

33

Garret Jones

1b

0.243

-1.25

-488.96

-1.034

15

-0.26

2

-0.74

45

-1.71

52

-0.91

-4.65

-2.97

27

Darin Ruf

1b

0.254

-0.70

-203.85

-0.462

15

-0.21

0

-0.88

43

-1.88

46

-1.26

-4.70

-3.02

27

Kyle Blanks

1b

0.246

-1.10

-338.77

-0.732

10

-0.82

1

-0.80

39

-2.17

42

-1.50

-6.02

-4.34

27

Brett Wallace

1b

0.246

-1.13

-276.17

-0.607

12

-0.65

1

-0.79

36

-2.38

34

-1.93

-6.36

-4.68

38

Paul Konerko

1b

0.252

-0.79

-234.42

-0.523

11

-0.76

0

-0.88

30

-2.76

40

-1.62

-6.55

-4.87

36

Luke Scott

1b

0.231

-1.86

-442.42

-0.941

9

-1.05

1

-0.83

26

-3.06

36

-1.85

-7.73

-6.05

30

Jesus Guzman

1b

0.241

-1.37

-248.80

-0.552

6

-1.35

3

-0.59

21

-3.37

26

-2.43

-8.30

-6.62

22

Jonathon Singleton

1b

0.222

-2.33

-401.50

-0.858

6

-1.42

1

-0.79

20

-3.44

24

-2.52

-9.02

-7.34

29

Josh Satin

1b

0.256

-0.62

-46.42

-0.145

1

-2.02

0

-0.84

10

-4.17

8

-3.46

-10.64

-8.96

Now let's look at catchers. Offensive values at the catching position is a shit-show. So let's say a 12 team league won't draft more than 12 catchers. Therefore, the 13th catcher is our replacement value. According to my projections, this winds up being Yan Gomes who has a -3.33 z-sum. -3.33 is our catcher replacement value, which is highlighted below in bold. Every catcher gets 3.33 added to their fantasy value.

Age

Name

Pos

AVG

zAvg

AdjAvg

zAdjAvg

HR

zHR

SB

zSB

R

zR

RBI

zRBI

zSum

Pos.Adj.

27

Buster Posey

c

0.310

2.11

1090.35

2.137

18

0.11

1

-0.79

71

0.10

83

0.87

2.43

5.76

25

Wilin Rosario

c

0.274

0.29

138.63

0.226

25

1.10

4

-0.53

67

-0.21

84

0.94

1.52

4.85

31

Joe Mauer

c

0.300

1.60

881.81

1.718

10

-0.80

0

-0.88

78

0.57

71

0.17

0.78

4.11

28

Jonathan Lucroy

c

0.285

0.84

404.47

0.760

17

0.11

6

-0.34

58

-0.81

81

0.76

0.48

3.81

31

Yadier Molina

c

0.306

1.92

925.67

1.806

11

-0.69

3

-0.59

63

-0.51

71

0.16

0.19

3.52

28

Carlos Santana

c

0.261

-0.34

-179.61

-0.413

20

0.43

2

-0.69

73

0.20

75

0.42

-0.05

3.28

24

Salvador Perez

c

0.301

1.67

851.42

1.657

15

-0.17

0

-0.88

49

-1.43

80

0.67

-0.15

3.18

29

Brian McCann

c

0.266

-0.12

-53.96

-0.161

24

0.89

0

-0.88

62

-0.52

75

0.39

-0.28

3.05

28

Matt Wieters

c

0.253

-0.75

-365.28

-0.786

22

0.65

2

-0.72

60

-0.70

73

0.27

-1.28

2.05

26

Wilson Ramos

c

0.278

0.52

234.20

0.418

20

0.37

0

-0.88

48

-1.51

72

0.22

-1.38

1.95

30

Miguel Montero

c

0.254

-0.73

-333.03

-0.721

13

-0.45

0

-0.88

58

-0.82

79

0.63

-2.25

1.08

27

Jason Castro

c

0.256

-0.62

-268.00

-0.590

17

0.00

2

-0.69

64

-0.39

58

-0.61

-2.27

1.06

26

Yan Gomes

c

0.264

-0.22

-86.73

-0.226

15

-0.18

3

-0.63

50

-1.37

52

-0.93

-3.33

0.00

27

Evan Gattis

c

0.253

-0.78

-247.88

-0.550

19

0.32

0

-0.88

44

-1.78

53

-0.87

-3.76

-0.43

37

AJ Pierzynski

c

0.266

-0.13

-54.59

-0.162

13

-0.48

0

-0.88

40

-2.03

60

-0.46

-4.01

-0.68

25

Travis d'Arnaud

c

0.251

-0.85

-353.95

-0.763

11

-0.76

0

-0.88

51

-1.29

56

-0.70

-4.38

-1.05

30

Dioner Navarro

c

0.274

0.32

94.27

0.137

12

-0.58

0

-0.88

42

-1.91

46

-1.29

-4.52

-1.19

23

Mike Zunino

c

0.229

-2.00

-860.26

-1.779

16

-0.14

1

-0.79

58

-0.84

51

-0.99

-4.53

-1.20

27

Alex Avila

c

0.238

-1.50

-573.04

-1.203

12

-0.60

0

-0.88

46

-1.62

57

-0.64

-4.94

-1.61

31

Russell Martin

c

0.221

-2.41

-1003.23

-2.067

14

-0.39

7

-0.26

49

-1.44

52

-0.90

-5.05

-1.72

26

Hank Conger

c

0.259

-0.48

-157.86

-0.369

12

-0.59

1

-0.79

44

-1.79

40

-1.59

-5.13

-1.80

29

Jarrod Salty

c

0.231

-1.86

-702.26

-1.462

14

-0.31

1

-0.80

47

-1.61

49

-1.11

-5.29

-1.96

26

Devin Mesoraco

c

0.245

-1.18

-433.58

-0.923

12

-0.61

0

-0.88

38

-2.19

51

-1.00

-5.60

-2.27

31

Geovany Soto

c

0.235

-1.68

-541.89

-1.140

14

-0.32

0

-0.88

42

-1.96

45

-1.31

-5.61

-2.28

26

Josh Phegley

c

0.240

-1.41

-570.26

-1.197

13

-0.52

4

-0.48

32

-2.59

52

-0.92

-5.71

-2.38

35

Carlos Ruiz

c

0.269

0.06

22.89

-0.006

7

-1.30

1

-0.77

38

-2.17

39

-1.68

-5.92

-2.59

25

Yasmani Grandal

c

0.266

-0.10

-23.90

-0.100

6

-1.36

0

-0.88

38

-2.22

44

-1.40

-5.96

-2.63

33

AJ Ellis

c

0.240

-1.45

-608.36

-1.274

7

-1.21

0

-0.88

44

-1.77

51

-0.98

-6.10

-2.77

25

Ryan Lavarnway

c

0.250

-0.92

-265.21

-0.585

7

-1.18

3

-0.62

33

-2.54

45

-1.33

-6.26

-2.93

24

Josmil Pinto

c

0.259

-0.45

-127.05

-0.307

8

-1.07

0

-0.88

34

-2.45

38

-1.75

-6.45

-3.12

29

Stephen Vogt

c

0.264

-0.22

-51.69

-0.156

9

-1.05

0

-0.88

29

-2.80

32

-2.07

-6.96

-3.63

30

John Jaso

c

0.252

-0.80

-209.65

-0.473

4

-1.64

3

-0.61

37

-2.26

29

-2.26

-7.24

-3.91

33

Ryan Doumit

c

0.249

-0.97

-238.42

-0.531

7

-1.24

1

-0.83

25

-3.11

31

-2.16

-7.86

-4.53

31

Chris Ianetta

c

0.226

-2.13

-453.16

-0.962

7

-1.23

0

-0.88

27

-2.94

28

-2.33

-8.34

-5.01

28

JP Arencibia

c

0.220

-2.44

-538.07

-1.133

10

-0.87

0

-0.88

23

-3.27

29

-2.27

-8.42

-5.09

26

Tony Sanchez

c

0.243

-1.28

-159.88

-0.373

4

-1.67

0

-0.88

13

-3.96

14

-3.09

-9.97

-6.64

24

Jesus Montero

c

0.242

-1.34

-93.69

-0.240

2

-1.88

0

-0.88

7

-4.36

9

-3.38

-10.73

-7.40

Now you can see how we came up with our positional scarcity adjustments. Based on the replacement player within each position, we took his z-sum/fantasy value and added that value to himself and everyone within the same position. The replacement player's new "Pos.Adj." value is 0.00 which will soon become $1.00 based on the $ value formula. For catchers, we added 3.33 to everyone but for first baseman (less scarce/more offensive value deeper within the position), we only added 1.68 to everyone.

As a reminder, the replacement value will change based on a) The Projections and IMO, the "drop-off value" b) the roster requirements c) quantity of teams.

5) $ Values: Again, right from Zach Sanders' series: [(260-(1*23))/23]*(PosAdj fantasy value / average PosAdj fantasy value for above-replacement players) + 1.

A) The "+1" is what gives us our $1.00 replacement player

B) "260" is our budget

C) "23" is our number of active roster spots

D) "PosAdj fantasy value" is the z-sum adjusted for positional scarcity or what we spoke about in step 4 above

E) And finally "average PosAdj value for above-replacement players" is basically the average of all the "PosAdj" values for the top 276 players (active hitters and pitchers on your team).

I'm not going to furnish a full $-value sample at this time, because I don't have my hitters and pitchers all integrated yet. But let's say the average positional adjustment fantasy value for above-replacement players was 3.00), the $ value formula would look like this for Freddie Freeman = ((260-(1*23))/23)*(7.51/3.00)+1 = $26.80. Again, "7.51" is FF's positionally adjusted fantasy value, which you can find in the first matrix under Step 4 above.

Look out for the hitter projection approach on Wednesday morning and the pitchers on Thursday morning.

If you're baffled or want to touch base on any of the steps/approaches above, you can follow Dan on twitter @Rotobanter or sign up for free on Rotobanter's Fantasy Baseball Forum.

Latest News

In This Article

Players

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Fake Teams

You must be a member of Fake Teams to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fake Teams. You should read them.

Join Fake Teams

You must be a member of Fake Teams to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fake Teams. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker