MLB Prospect Rankings: Reviewing My Bold Prospect Predictions, Part 3

Bob Levey

Jason Hunt takes a look back at the last five of his bold prospect predictions he made during the preseason, to see how each of them turned out and just how far off he was on them.

With the end of the minor league season coming today, now is a great time to look back at some of the things we wrote during the season (and preseason), and specifically with regard to predictions. Andrew Ball started this process by reviewing his own bold predictions as a part of last week's episode of the Fake Teams podcast, and while I will be looking at each of my own bold prospect predictions, this will happen over three posts, as I actually made 13 different prospect predictions myself. With that, here is a look back at the first four predictions I made, along with how I thought they graded out and what actually happened.

Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox

WHAT WAS SAID

Jared Mitchell is promoted to the Majors midseason, and hits 8 home runs, steals 15 bases, and hits .265 from July 31st onward - Jason Hunt

PREDICTION GRADE: F

Mitchell struggled at the start of the season at AAA Charlotte, got hurt, and was demoted back to AA for the rest of the season. In 90 games between the two levels, he combined to hit .167/.293/.257 with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases, and I would be hard pressed at this point to consider him anything more than organizational filler. Mitchell just can’t catch a break in terms of staying healthy, but I would have to imagine that the organization no longer views him as a part of their long-term plans.

Sam Selman, LHP, Kansas City Royals

WHAT WAS SAID

Sam Selman is sent to AA immediately, and dominates to the tune of 103 strikeouts in just 68 innings pitched before being promoted to AAA. He finishes the season with the Royals for three starts in September, and is expected to be one of the five starters for 2014 - Jason Hunt

PREDICTION GRADE: D+

Selman wasn’t nearly that dominant, as he spent the entirety of the season at High-A, providing 128 strikeouts against 85 walks with 88 hits allowed in 125 innings pitched. I had hoped that Selman would be able to successfully turn his swing-and-miss offerings into enough that he could remain in the starting rotation, but with the command struggles I wonder if he will get shifted to the bullpen by the end of the 2014 season.

Jarred Cosart, RHP, Houston Astros

WHAT WAS SAID

Jarred Cosart is called up at midseason, and plugged into the closer's role following the trade of Jose Veras. Down the stretch he goes 15 for 16 in save opportunities with a K/9 rate over 11 - Jason Hunt

PREDICTION GRADE: C+

Well, he was called up midseason, but to continue in the starting rotation. Cosart has made 9 starts so far, throwing 55 innings, allowing 44 hits and 29 walks while striking out 30 batters. That translates to K/9 rate of 4.9, well short of 11. I’m starting to come around to the idea that he can stick in the rotation, but there is still clearly work to do.

Kaleb Cowart (3B) and C.J. Cron (1B), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

WHAT WAS SAID

The Angels continue to empty the farm system, this time sending Kaleb Cowart and C.J. Cron in a midseason trade to help shore up their starting pitching. It helps though, as the Angels win one of the wild card berths - Jason Hunt

PREDICTION GRADE: C-

The failure of this prediction has more to do with the fact that the Angels fell out of contention early, and had no need to make a move toward a playoff run. Cowart has been disappointing with his performance this year, hitting.221/.279/.301 with 6 home runs at AA. Cron has fared better, hitting .274/.319/.428 with 14 home runs and 83 runs driven in. However, for a prospect that is expected to be at best a first-base only player on defense, that performance probably isn’t what you were hoping for. At this point, I would not be surprised to see 2B prospect Taylor Lindsey moved ahead of them both on Angels’ prospect lists.

Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers

WHAT WAS SAID

Joey Gallo continues his power binge, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 115 runs between Low-A and High-A, leading all minor leaguers in both categories - Jason Hunt

PREDICTION GRADE: A-

The closest thing to an accurate prediction, Gallo finished the season with 40 home runs and 88 runs driven in between a 5 game rookie ball stint and the rest of the season at Low-A. He also only played in a total of 111 games, so who knows how many home runs he potentially left on the table in those remaining 20+ games as well. The strikeouts are concerning (172), but Gallo may have the best power potential of any player in the minors right now, including Miguel Sano.

You can find the first part of this series here, the second part here, and can follow me on Twitter @jasonsbaseball.
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