Deep League Diving - Chad Gaudin & Hector Santiago

USA TODAY Sports

So let’s take a look at a few SP options potentially still available. Recently, I had no choice but to pick up Chad Gaudin and Hector Santiago. Surprisingly both have been assets.

Tis been a while since I posted here. You can still send us requests here. Real life, vacation and adult baseball is to blame. In 4 games played, I’m currently 2 for 8 with 2 SO, 2 HBP, 3BB, 1 RBI and am currently unlucky in the BABIP department – freken 4 line drives caught for outs already (1 GB and 1 FB out as well). Watching baseball is great. Fantasy baseball is awesome, but playing baseball – there’s nothing better than knowing you can still catch up to a 80…okay 65-75 MPH fastball.

Anyways, time to get back into full swing here. So let’s take a look at a few SP options potentially still available. Recently, I had no choice but to pick up Chad Gaudin and Hector Santiago. Surprisingly both have been assets for me thus far. In his past 3 starts, Gaudin has gone 19 innings with a 22:5 (4.4) K/BB ratio – only 10 hits and 2 earned runs (0 HR). In Santiago’s last 3 starts, he’s gone 19.2 innings with a 21:5 K/BB ratio – only 13 hits and 5 earned runs (3 HR).

Let’s take a look at their Skill and Luck factors (relative to all pitchers with > 70 IP). As of 7/22, Gaudin was 38th in expected ERA/SIERA and contact rate, but has been very lucky in all three departments: HR/FB, left on base% and BABIP. Out of 129 pitchers, Gaudin has the 22nd highest BABIP differential between expected BABIP and actual BABIP as you can see below:

Name

GB%

FB%

LD%

IFFB%

IFH%

HR/FB

LOB%

BABIP

xBABIP

BABIPDiff

1

Jeff Locke

52.40%

29.30%

18.30%

8.60%

6.60%

6.50%

83.20%

0.223

0.320

0.097

2

Jose Fernandez

42.90%

34.30%

22.80%

5.40%

4.30%

7.60%

75.60%

0.244

0.333

0.089

3

Clayton Kershaw

44.80%

35.10%

20.10%

10.30%

6.90%

6.60%

79.30%

0.23

0.317

0.087

4

Patrick Corbin

46.80%

32.40%

20.80%

9.60%

5.40%

7.80%

81.90%

0.246

0.321

0.075

5

Travis Wood

33.70%

44.00%

22.30%

13.00%

5.10%

5.80%

76.50%

0.227

0.301

0.074

6

Hiroki Kuroda

46.00%

33.00%

21.00%

9.40%

6.20%

9.40%

81.90%

0.251

0.325

0.074

7

Francisco Liriano

52.10%

24.70%

23.30%

1.90%

9.80%

7.50%

82.60%

0.295

0.367

0.072

8

Jordan Zimmermann

48.20%

29.10%

22.70%

13.40%

6.60%

10.10%

74.10%

0.26

0.330

0.070

9

Madison Bumgarner

43.70%

37.50%

18.90%

11.00%

4.10%

9.40%

74.70%

0.231

0.301

0.070

10

Jason Marquis

52.30%

27.10%

20.50%

6.10%

3.10%

18.20%

77.30%

0.261

0.330

0.069

11

Bronson Arroyo

43.30%

36.50%

20.30%

6.80%

5.20%

11.60%

78.90%

0.254

0.323

0.069

12

Matt Cain

39.10%

38.80%

22.10%

7.80%

5.40%

12.50%

64.10%

0.258

0.327

0.069

13

Yu Darvish

43.90%

35.60%

20.50%

8.10%

6.60%

15.20%

80.70%

0.26

0.328

0.068

14

Cliff Lee

43.70%

33.90%

22.40%

8.00%

7.90%

11.60%

76.40%

0.272

0.339

0.067

15

Chris Sale

45.80%

32.30%

21.90%

7.00%

7.70%

11.00%

76.60%

0.275

0.340

0.065

16

Gio Gonzalez

46.90%

34.50%

18.60%

7.20%

6.00%

9.90%

79.30%

0.255

0.318

0.063

17

Alex Cobb

57.10%

21.40%

21.40%

7.80%

5.10%

17.60%

81.00%

0.279

0.342

0.063

18

Jorge de la Rosa

48.10%

27.40%

24.50%

9.60%

8.50%

7.40%

77.80%

0.29

0.351

0.061

19

Tim Lincecum

46.20%

27.20%

26.60%

2.40%

7.60%

11.80%

67.40%

0.312

0.372

0.060

20

Ervin Santana

47.90%

33.60%

18.50%

7.80%

6.00%

12.40%

77.10%

0.259

0.319

0.060

21

Jeremy Guthrie

43.10%

36.50%

20.50%

5.80%

6.00%

14.20%

77.20%

0.273

0.330

0.057

22

Chad Gaudin

39.20%

39.20%

21.60%

11.80%

5.30%

5.30%

84.00%

0.253

0.308

0.055

23

Matt Garza

39.80%

38.80%

21.40%

7.70%

5.00%

10.30%

80.00%

0.266

0.321

0.055

24

A.J. Burnett

55.00%

26.20%

18.80%

2.80%

8.10%

11.30%

75.70%

0.288

0.343

0.055

25

Kyle Lohse

38.10%

38.90%

23.00%

9.40%

4.10%

12.80%

80.10%

0.269

0.323

0.054

26

Scott Feldman

50.00%

31.70%

18.30%

12.50%

9.80%

10.60%

66.60%

0.268

0.322

0.054

27

Stephen Strasburg

50.80%

32.00%

17.20%

6.20%

9.10%

10.30%

73.60%

0.274

0.328

0.054

28

Clay Buchholz

48.80%

30.10%

21.10%

11.10%

2.90%

3.20%

84.10%

0.258

0.311

0.053

29

Jarrod Parker

42.30%

41.70%

16.00%

7.00%

5.50%

11.20%

74.40%

0.248

0.300

0.052

30

Mike Leake

50.10%

31.70%

18.10%

9.20%

4.30%

11.80%

81.20%

0.259

0.311

0.052

31

Hisashi Iwakuma

47.20%

37.60%

15.20%

9.60%

3.80%

14.40%

81.10%

0.241

0.292

0.051

32

Esmil Rogers

46.10%

29.40%

24.50%

5.60%

3.50%

13.90%

78.30%

0.294

0.345

0.051

33

Dan Straily

35.80%

42.10%

22.00%

9.30%

2.20%

7.50%

67.50%

0.258

0.307

0.049

34

Jhoulys Chacin

47.10%

28.60%

24.40%

8.80%

4.80%

2.90%

69.90%

0.289

0.337

0.048

35

Paul Maholm

50.90%

23.90%

25.20%

5.50%

4.60%

14.30%

70.40%

0.308

0.355

0.047

36

Bartolo Colon

44.40%

36.80%

18.80%

6.80%

10.30%

5.60%

81.00%

0.28

0.327

0.047

37

Roberto Hernandez

50.30%

25.00%

24.70%

10.60%

5.30%

21.20%

69.70%

0.304

0.350

0.046

38

Tim Hudson

54.80%

27.00%

18.30%

3.90%

5.30%

9.80%

67.90%

0.283

0.328

0.045

39

Wily Peralta

54.00%

24.80%

21.20%

8.20%

5.70%

11.30%

65.20%

0.293

0.336

0.043

40

Trevor Cahill

57.70%

23.00%

19.20%

4.50%

5.40%

14.90%

70.30%

0.293

0.336

0.043

41

Carlos Villanueva

42.40%

35.20%

22.40%

5.70%

3.80%

10.20%

72.60%

0.287

0.330

0.043

42

Matt Harvey

45.60%

35.00%

19.30%

12.90%

6.00%

6.00%

78.80%

0.262

0.305

0.043

43

C.J. Wilson

46.10%

33.20%

20.80%

5.70%

7.00%

7.30%

72.90%

0.291

0.333

0.042

44

Kyle Kendrick

50.70%

31.10%

18.20%

9.10%

9.80%

9.80%

73.80%

0.287

0.329

0.042

45

CC Sabathia

45.20%

34.40%

20.40%

7.30%

9.60%

15.30%

70.50%

0.298

0.339

0.041

46

Miguel Gonzalez

39.40%

40.00%

20.60%

13.30%

3.20%

10.90%

79.70%

0.257

0.298

0.041

47

Jeremy Hefner

44.60%

36.90%

18.50%

8.90%

6.70%

12.90%

70.10%

0.275

0.315

0.040

48

Jerome Williams

45.60%

33.80%

20.60%

8.30%

6.20%

13.00%

67.30%

0.288

0.327

0.039

49

Kevin Correia

45.70%

32.50%

21.80%

4.70%

4.40%

14.10%

78.80%

0.298

0.336

0.038

50

Yovani Gallardo

49.90%

26.70%

23.50%

5.10%

4.90%

12.10%

67.20%

0.309

0.347

0.038

51

Jake Westbrook

59.30%

21.10%

19.60%

5.30%

1.90%

5.30%

76.50%

0.284

0.321

0.037

52

Hector Santiago

35.00%

42.50%

22.60%

13.50%

6.30%

10.40%

77.90%

0.273

0.309

0.036

More concerning is that he’s been the 4th luckiest pitcher as it relates to homeruns per flyball and left on base% as you can see here:

Name

SIERA

Ct%

SwStr

K%

K/BB

GB/FB

HR/FB

LOB

BABIP

Chad Gaudin

38

38

46

34

57

107

4

4

22

Hector Santiago

48

22

33

17

85

118

39

39

52

Recommendations:

Santiago has benefited much less in these 3 luck-relates categories, and has been even more impressive from a dominance perspective as we can see from his contact rate, swing and miss rate and K% above. He has the 22nd best contact rate in baseball right now. I benefit from being in a league that doesn’t use counting stats such as wins and saves – if you need K or K/9 or K% then Santiago is a must-start, but keep an eye on his BB% and GB/FB rate. Look to his 3.80 SIERA and not 3.30 ERA, but a sub 77.5% contact rate sure is great.

Gaudin is currently sporting a full sub .300 wOBA repertoire – he should have his spot in the rotation locked for the rest of the season, but in all likelihood they’ll catch-up to his fastball and he’ll regress, but he’s a must-start at home and against paltry offenses.

Make sure you look at our rest of season rankings here.

...Matt Garza impact here.

...And finally exciting Miami Marlins news here, where Jason Hunt delves into Yelich & Marisnick.

Dan owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com - dedicated to visitor requests and live banter. You can follow him on twitter @rotobanter

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