Remaining Strength of Schedule Ranks

Stephen Dunn

Brian Creagh takes a look at which pitching staffs have the most favorable matchups left.

We're about two months into the fantasy baseball season and have enough data to formulate an opinion on the strengths of each offense. Today I want to take a look at the remaining schedule for all 30 MLB teams and see if we can find some teams with an easier road ahead. To get our final data, I looked at the amount of games a team has against each opponent and calculated a weighted average for each of four different offensive stats (Runs scored this season, K%, wRC+, and wOBA). Forecasting probable pitching matchups is difficult to do a week in advance let alone two months, but we can use this information to see which pitching staffs will have more favorable matchups for the rest of the season.

I will intentionally remain light on the analysis of these results since my goal is to arm our readers with the data to make their own informed decisions, but there are a few areas I would like to highlight. First let's take a look at the full table of results, sorted ascending by wOBA.

Team

Games

Avg R

Avg K%

Avg wRC+

Avg wOBA

Braves

110

194.89

20.22%

88.482

0.300

Nationals

109

201.77

20.45%

91.431

0.306

Mets

112

202.07

20.27%

91.393

0.306

Phillies

109

202.94

20.92%

92.101

0.306

Rockies

109

205.72

19.71%

95.037

0.309

Brewers

111

213.19

20.34%

93.919

0.309

Cardinals

109

209.72

20.39%

94.248

0.310

Marlins

109

211.28

20.73%

95.486

0.311

Cubs

110

213.47

20.01%

96.109

0.311

Giants

109

210.73

19.79%

95.211

0.311

Pirates

108

218.14

19.52%

95.889

0.312

Tigers

111

215.75

20.13%

93.730

0.313

Diamondbacks

109

214.86

19.53%

97.156

0.313

Indians

110

217.54

19.74%

93.573

0.313

Reds

109

214.06

19.91%

97.404

0.313

Padres

110

214.37

19.41%

95.927

0.314

Dodgers

111

220.26

19.43%

96.189

0.314

Twins

112

218.32

20.11%

95.795

0.315

Athletics

108

222.32

20.24%

97.324

0.317

Royals

111

225.35

20.35%

97.261

0.318

Rangers

109

227.50

20.41%

98.982

0.318

Mariners

109

229.92

20.19%

98.495

0.319

Astros

109

228.28

19.66%

99.064

0.320

Angels

109

227.54

20.44%

99.349

0.320

Rays

109

228.39

19.81%

98.495

0.320

White Sox

111

231.42

19.90%

99.541

0.320

Red Sox

108

230.70

18.83%

100.306

0.322

Orioles

109

232.20

19.92%

99.358

0.322

Blue Jays

109

233.47

19.57%

100.266

0.322

Yankees

110

234.48

19.52%

101.073

0.323

The first thing that jumps out to me is that all 5 NL East teams are in the Top 8. Clearly the Top 4 are aided by feasting off the Miami Marlins multiple times, but even the Marlins are in the Top 10 and will offer some decent streaming options when Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob Turner are back in the rotation. In the same vein, the AL East is brutal and will be beating up on each other the rest of the season. Another intriguing team is the Chicago White Sox and their difficult road ahead - with an anemic offense and a difficult remaining schedule, now might be the time to sell high on Jake Peavy with his 6-2 record and 2.97 ERA.

I thought about writing up an article suggesting to buy low on Kris Medlen's rough start to 2013, but I think the above chart displays one of the more convincing pieces of evidence to this. By 3 of the 4 measures, the Braves pitching staff have the easiest ROS and with Medlen exiting Wednesday's game with a calf contusion, his value will never be lower.

Next I'd like to take a look at the 10 teams facing the most strikeout-prone offenses.

Team

Games

Avg R

Avg K%

Avg wRC+

Avg wOBA

Phillies

109

202.94

20.92%

92.101

0.306

Marlins

109

211.28

20.73%

95.486

0.311

Nationals

109

201.77

20.45%

91.431

0.306

Angels

109

227.54

20.44%

99.349

0.320

Rangers

109

227.50

20.41%

98.982

0.318

Cardinals

109

209.72

20.39%

94.248

0.310

Royals

111

225.35

20.35%

97.261

0.318

Brewers

111

213.19

20.34%

93.919

0.309

Mets

112

202.07

20.27%

91.393

0.306

Athletics

108

222.32

20.24%

97.324

0.317

Both the AL West and NL East have multiple teams in this list, and that is fueled by the multiple matchups with the Braves and Astros on the schedule. The Phillies and Nationals appear to be setup for some nice streaming starts so get ready to wear out Jonathan Pettibone, Dan Haren, and Tyler Cloyd.

I'll end the analysis there but would be happy to discuss further in the comments section or on Twitter (@BrianCreagh) or via e-mail bcreagh119@gmail.com.

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