DL Stashes: Beachy, Pineda, Luebke & Hudson (TJS & TLS returns)

Stephen Dunn

Last week, I received a request on why there is not enough hype on Daniel Hudson’s return. Here is my response. Whether you’re drinking a Pineda Colada on a Beachy, Luebke-ing up with lotion or you’re near the Hudson, don’t forget about these DL stashes...

Last week, I received a request on why there is not enough hype on Daniel Hudson’s return. Here is my response.

Whether you’re drinking a Pineda Colada on a Beachy, Luebke-ing up with lotion or you’re near the Hudson, don’t forget about these DL stashes:

Player

Stint

INJ

ETA

Status

Source

Michael Pineda

60 day DL

Torn Labrum

Early June

Live BP and bullpen sessions in extended spring training

NY Daily News

NYY

(Surgery)

Throwing full repertoire and hitting 95 (sitting at 93)

Yankees.mlb.com & Bryan Hoch on Twitter

"No longer thinks about his shoulder when throwing"

LoHud Yankees Blog

Brandon Beachy

15 day DL

Elbow

Mid-June

MiLB rehab assignment approaching

David O'Brien on Twitter

ATL

(TJS)

No setbacks

Live BP in extended spring training

Daniel Hudson

60 day DL

Elbow

June

Live BP and bullpen sessions every 5 days

Diamondbacks.mlb.com

ARZ

(TJS)

No setbacks

Cory Luebke

60 day DL

Elbow

ASB

Throwing from 135 ft at flat ground (4/22)

SAN broadcaster Andy Masur

SAN

(TJS)

Minor setback in early March; pitching program shut down

Corey Brock on Twitter

I am no injury expert, but here is a great post from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs regarding pitching injury potential. The fantasy world’s version of Nationals’ J. Zimmerman(n) broke it down into two groups: The first is pitchers who throw a large percentage of breaking balls. The second is pitchers who had problems throwing strikes. Let’s take a look at these two variables prior to their injuries:

1) Pitchers who throw a large percentage of breaking balls:

For context, here are the top slider and curveball hurlers from 2011

Rank

Name

SL%

Rank

Name

CB%

1

Ervin Santana

38.40%

1

Wandy Rodriguez

37.20%

2

Bud Norris

36.20%

2

A.J. Burnett

33.10%

3

Edwin Jackson

33.70%

3

Erik Bedard

31.20%

4

Madison Bumgarner

32.40%

4

Gio Gonzalez

27.80%

5

Michael Pineda

31.50%

5

Jeff Niemann

23.70%

6

Ryan Dempster

31.10%

6

Jonathon Niese

22.90%

7

Francisco Liriano

28.80%

7

Brett Myers

22.70%

8

Bruce Chen

28.70%

8

Ivan Nova

22.40%

9

Felipe Paulino

28.30%

9

Philip Humber

21.70%

10

Alexi Ogando

27.70%

10

James Shields

21.00%

Oh look… Michael Pineda (and Ogando for that matter) wound up as #5 on the ‘Those Who Throw Slides Most list’ (yes, this is the official name).

Here’s the rest of our list with their respective career pitch type breakdown and velocity:

FB%

SL%

CB%

CH%

BrBa pitch f/x%

FaCh pitch f/x%

FA-Chdiff

Michael Pineda

62.2% (94.7)

31.5% (84.1)

6.3% (87.6)

31.50%

68.50%

7.1 mph

Brandon Beachy

61.6% (91.6)

17.9% (82.2)

9.7% (73.4)

10.9% (80.2)

18%

72.50%

11.4 mph

Daniel Hudson

62.8% (93.0)

14.4% (86.4)

0.3% (74.2)

21.8% (83.4)

14.40%

85.30%

9.6 mph

Cory Luebke

66.6% (91.3)

21.2% (83.7)

3.4% (76.7)

8.8% (84.7)

21.23%

75.40%

6.6 mph

BrBa% = Breaking Ball%

FaCh% = Fastball & Changeup%

FA-Chdiff = Fastball Changeup differential


For reference, these BrBa percentages would have ranked each SP’s breaking ball (not specific to the slider) quantity as follows in 2012 for those that reached the minimum IP requirement:

Michael Pineda = 25th

Brandon Beachy = 36th

Daniel Hudson = 46th

Cory Luebke = 74th

Again, for reference, MLB pitchers on average last year used sliders 14.40% of the time at 83.1 mph on average (curveballs 10.4% of the time at 77 mph). Hudson threw sliders at last year’s league average rate while the other three guys hurled them well beyond.

2) Pitchers who have problems throwing strikes:

Let’s look at their career %Strikes, Zone% and NIBB% (non-intentional base on balls) and JZimm’s DL potential:

Name

Strike%

Balls%

Zone%

K%

BB%

1

Brandon Beachy

63.70%

36.30%

44.50%

25.80%

8.40%

2

Cory Luebke

65%

35.00%

45.50%

25.60%

7.60%

3

Daniel Hudson

65%

35.10%

45.10%

19.40%

6.00%

4

Michael Pineda

66.50%

33.50%

47.90%

24.90%

7.90%

% Strikes

DL%

Zone%

DL%

NIBB%

DL%

>64%

38.30%

>51.5%

34.50%

<6.5%

36.30%

62% to 64%

36.50%

51.5% to 49%

41.20%

6.5% to 8%

35.20%

<62%

36.30%

<49%

41.40%

>8%

39.60%

I would say that all four guys before their injuries fit JZimm’s DL potential mold.

So assuming they all come back around the same time, what can we expect? There are some intangible factors that we’ll have to account for:

They may be limited from using their breaking pitches and/or mentally, they may be concerned about using their breaking pitches. In any case, Eno Sarris at Fangraphs points to this effect by way of 24 starters:



SL DIFF


FC DIFF


CU DIFF


CH DIFF


FS DIFF


Brett Anderson

SP

-0.037

0.056

-0.019

Chris Capuano

SP

0.068

0.007

-0.145

Matt Chico

SP

-0.043

-0.017

0.016

Jorge de la Rosa

SP

-0.049

-0.059

0.151

Rubby de la Rosa

SP

-0.065

-0.01

-0.026

Jaime Garcia

SP

0.144

-0.385

-0.074

0.068

Shawn Hill

SP

-0.072

-0.057

0.178

Tim Hudson

SP

-0.077

0.084

0.046

0.018

Josh Johnson

SP

0.008

0.047

0.08

Jesse Litsch

SP

-0.185

0.153

-0.092

-0.028

Shaun Marcum

SP

-0.051

0.021

0.035

0.038

Daisuke Matsuzaka

SP

-0.091

0.076

0.064

-0.006

0.021

Kris Medlen

SP

0.052

-0.04

Sergio Mitre

SP

0.02

0.049

-0.11

Jamie Moyer

SP

-0.011

-0.021

0.022

0.097

Russ Ortiz

SP

-0.147

0.234

0.088

0.008

Mike Pelfrey

SP

-0.054

0.023

-0.04

Ben Sheets

SP

-0.006

0.146

Stephen Strasburg

SP

-0.063

-0.003

Edinson Volquez

SP

-0.002

0.104

-0.056

Adam Wainwright

SP

-0.024

0.105

0.011

-0.013

Jake Westbrook

SP

0.026

-0.009

0.041

-0.024

0.003

Jordan Zimmermann

SP

0.069

0.009

-0.041

Total >>>

-0.029

0.029

0.012

0.006

0.031

"If you discount any pitchers that showed opposite signs in their slider and cutter classifications, eight of 13 starting pitchers used the slider less after surgery." I’ll personally consider the other 5 guys ballsy.

Again, sticking with JZimm, there are these general rules of thumb regarding Tommy John Surgery:

1. Most pitchers regain their velocity seen a year or two prior to the operation. Don’t look at the year that the injury happen as it is probably down. Go back a year. Sometimes they lose velocity coming back, but rarely gain from their all time high.

2. It takes a year for a pitcher throwing in the majors to get back to where they were previously performing. Some return to their previous form faster, others take a little longer, if at all.

Pitch f/x and weighted on base average:

So let’s look at their velocity and weighted on base average for each pitch in the full year prior to their injuries (2011):

Brandon Beachy

Season


Pitch


Pitches


BB%


K%


BB/K


AVG


ISO


BABIP


wOBA


Career pf/x (mph)


2011

FA

1209

7.90%

28.50%

0.28

0.24

0.12

0.313

0.296

61.6% (91.6)

2011

SL

460

5.40%

40.80%

0.13

0.17

0.15

0.258

0.235

17.9% (82.2)

2011

CH

245

5.30%

20.00%

0.27

0.29

0.17

0.352

0.34

10.9% (80.2)

2011

CU

228

2.20%

15.60%

0.14

0.28

0.09

0.333

0.302

9.7% (73.4)

2011

FC

226

5.70%

26.40%

0.21

0.26

0.22

0.303

0.34

< 5%

Cory Luebke

Season


Pitch


Pitches


BB%


K%


BB/K


AVG


ISO


BABIP


wOBA


Career pf/x (mph)


2011

FA

1513

10.50%

28.90%

0.36

0.2

0.14

0.25

0.277

62.8% (93.0)

2011

SL

607

2.60%

31.40%

0.08

0.21

0.1

0.293

0.241

21.2% (83.7)

2011

CH

161

0.00%

9.50%

0

0.29

0.12

0.316

0.299

8.8% (84.7)

2011

FT

62

9.10%

18.20%

0.5

0.33

0

0.429

0.337

<5%

Daniel Hudson

Season


Pitch


Pitches


BB%


K%


BB/K


AVG


ISO


BABIP


wOBA


Career pf/x (mph)


2011

FA

2119

6.80%

16.40%

0.42

0.26

0.12

0.306

0.311

66.6% (91.3)

2011

CH

756

2.70%

20.40%

0.13

0.26

0.16

0.298

0.3

21.8% (83.4)

2011

SL

558

3.40%

22.40%

0.15

0.22

0.17

0.252

0.277

14.4% (86.4)

Cory Luebke went with his breaking ball over 21% of the time; Beachy 18% of the time and Hudson almost 14.5% of the time. Based on the above wOBA data, Beachy has the most to lose if he does somewhat stray away from his slider. His slider had the lowest wOBA and the rest of his pitches yield a wOBA close to or beyond .300. On the other hand, Luebke’s fastball is still dominating (.277 wOBA). Hudson is in the same boat as Beachy except his slider isn’t as nearly as dominating (.277 wOBA vs. .235/Beachy and .241/Luebke).

2011 skill set (prior to injury year):

Let’s look at their skill sets from 2011:

2011

Age

SIERA

GB/FB

K/BB

K%

BB%

CT%

SwStr%

MLB Avg >>>

3.88

1.33

2.48

19.80%

8.00%

79.70%

9.10%

Cory Luebke

26

2.89


1

3.5


27.80%


7.90%

76.40%

10.90%

Daniel Hudson

24

3.78

1.07

3.38

18.40%

5.40%

78.90%

9.90%

Brandon Beachy

24

2.94


0.75


3.67


28.60%


7.80%

74.10%


11.80%


Michael Pineda

22

3.36

0.81


3.15

24.90%

7.90%

75.80%

11.80%


Recommendations:

In a standard 5x5 league, the above data keeps me from truly wanting Daniel Hudson, but his K/BB as soon as 2014 could look similar to the other three because of his control. Beachy and Pineda can probably be considered the most dominating options from their contact rate and percentage of strikes that were swung and missed highlighted above. If you want the highest upside (pre-injury) I would lean toward Pineda or Beachy. Luebke may have the quickest success due to the success of his Fastball (and Changeup), but he’s also a Padre so keep that in mind if you need wins. With most of their workloads and pitch counts capped, it will be a concern for them all. Atlanta has the best bullpen if we’re dragging this thought out.

Thus far we focused mostly on the TJS guys so let’s quickly look at TLS (Torn Labrum Surgery):

Here is a great post by @injuryexpert (Will Carroll) regarding Torn Labrum Surgery. This quote about Michael Pineda sums it up:

But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle.


The good news is, Michael Pineda is already sitting at 93 topping out at 95 and "isn’t even thinking about his shoulder when he throws." Keep in mind, we only had a one year sample to go off of, but check out this Pineada gif uploaded by Jeff Sullivan:

So nasty, his catcher at the time, Miguel Olivo was baffled, let alone the batter. Here are a slew of them for you to enjoy:

http://seattle.sbnation.com/seattle-mariners/2011/4/13/2109300/michael-pineda-pitch-gif-seattle-mariners-toronto-blue-jays

I really liked his repertoire, associated velocity, pitch selection and that nasty slider. I did not draft him but will try buying with the hopes of 90% of what he could have been pre-surgery. Buy and stash for now and hope he doesn’t fatigue.

...

You can send me your requests here or register to post on our forum for quick responses here.

Dan Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com - dedicated to fantasy baseball visitor requests and live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @rotobanter.

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