Would Coulda Shoulda Team - 1/4 Way Point.

Elsa

Earlier this week, I referenced my woulda-coulda-shoulda teams while looking at Jean Segura, Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez. We're just over a quarter-way through the season now, and I couldn't wait until the All Star break to share one so let's look at 2013v1.0. We'll redo the list half-way through and at seasons’ end...

Earlier this week, I referenced my woulda-coulda-shoulda teams while looking at Jean Segura, Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez. We're just over a quarter-way through the season now, and I couldn't wait until the All Star break to share one so let's look at 2013v1.0. We'll redo the list half-way through and at seasons’ end.

In v2 and v3, we’ll make it a bit more official (depicting the average draft position from public and expert mock drafts). The team will be inherently unrealistic so there are obvious reaches/assumptions built-in i.e. our first pick is Miguel Cabrera meaning we picked let’s say in the top 3 picks in odd rounds and bottom 3 picks in even rounds. I have the pleasure of owning him in my favorite league (probably because I own him).

Instead of calling the team irrational, let’s just say we had some fantasy baseball draft BABIP or VBADP (Value Beyond Average Draft Position):

Without further ado:

1

Miguel Cabrera

3b

2

Buster Posey

c;1b

3

Paul Goldschmidt

1b

4

Adam Jones

of1

5

Shin Soo Choo

of2

6

Jason Kipnis

2b

7

Alex Rios

of3

8

Wilin Rosario

c2

9

Matt Harvey

sp1

10

Anibal Sanchez

sp2

11

Clay Buchholz

sp3

12

Chris Davis

ci

13

Shelby Miller

sp4

14

Trevor Cahill

sp5

15

Alex Cobb

sp6

16

Carlos Gomez

of4

17

Manny Machado

u

18

Addison Reed

cl1

19

Starling Marte

of5

20

Everth Cabrera

ss

21

Jean Segura

mi

22

Bobby Parnell

cl2

23

Hisashi Iwakuma

sp7

24

Justin Masterson

b

25

Patrick Corbin

b

26

Edward Mujica

cl3

27

Jim Henderson

cl4

28

Mark Reynolds

b

29

Vernon Wells

b

Here’s the team (standard CBS roster) with their ESPN player rater value and notes on the right if you want to know what I think from a buy/sell perspective based on skill/luck (scroll right):


ESPN PR


as of 5/24/13


AVG


R


HR


RBI


SB


Notes


c

118

Buster Posey

0.3

19

6

28

0

c

68

Wilin Rosario

0.28

21

9

27

3

#37 on the HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Leaderboard. May lack discipline, but the more FB in play, the more HR

1b

6

Paul Goldschmidt

0.32

31

12

36

4

#1 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist. Validates HR/FB

2b

57

Jason Kipnis

0.25

22

7

24

9

3b

1

Miguel Cabrera

0.39

39

14

55

1

Can't say enough so here's a great GIF. How he turned and spanked that high inside FB for a HR, I have no idea

ss

35

Everth Cabrera

0.25

25

2

15

18

Meh but 18 SB

ci

5

Chris Davis

0.33

30

15

44

0

#5 HR & FB Batted Ball Avg. Dist.; Don't Sell High b/c of solid Trends (GB/FB; BB/K);^Ct%

mi

3

Jean Segura

0.35

26

7

20

14

Surprised to see him at #31 on the HR & FB Avg. Dist list (300+ ft); FB% (only 25%) should prevent HR total that approaches 20

of

7

Adam Jones

0.32

34

7

31

8

of

27

Shin-Soo Choo

0.3

37

9

19

5

of

10

Alex Rios

0.31

28

10

27

8

of

29

Carlos Gomez

0.33

23

6

20

9

Sell high! Ct%, BB/K identical to '12 but .405 BABIP to date unsustainable

of

14

Starling Marte

0.31

35

5

17

11

Sell high candidate but should still end w/ 14 HR/28 SB campaign

u

25

Manny Machado

0.33

32

5

28

4

Maybe Miggy saw this comp which motivated him to take-off

b

41

Mark Reynolds

0.26

26

12

40

1

No truly defining luck other than a somewhat inflated HR/FB but #13 Avg. Dist; Slight drop in K% but same Ct%. Buy if you're in OBP/SLG leagues.

b

47

Vernon Wells

0.29

24

10

24

4

17.5% HR/FB is freken impressive since 20% of his FB are IFFB, which is nothing new for him. Maybe some luck in BABIP but Ct% in line with what we should expect from a 34 year-old wells. With continued health and similar peripherals we could see 70-25-70-9-.270 or better which is playable in almost all leagues (assuming Ichiro doesn't take off and steal PT)

TOTAL:

0.31

452

136

455

99


ESPN PR


as of 5/24/13


W


SV


K


ERA


WHIP


Notes


sp

12

Matt Harvey

5

0

74

1.93

0.83

K/BB;GB/FB;HR/FB - all the right trends. Luck in BABIP is offset by Bad Luck due to little or no offensive support. C'mon Mets!

sp

89

Anibal Sanchez

4

0

68

2.77

1.23

2.77 ERA validated by even better 2.68 SIERA! Elite K/BB & better than avg. GB/FB ratios (actually has an elevated BABIP)

sp

13

Clay Buchholz

7

0

73

1.73

1.05

Nice GB/FB and K/BB trend, but great example of luck (3.7% HR/FB; 84.7% LOB); BABIP somewhat in line (.263). He's more of a 3.5 ERA guy (3.46 SIERA)

rp

53

Addison Reed

1

16

24

2.14

1.05

rp

100

Bobby Parnell

4

6

18

2.21

0.89

rp

78

Edward Mujica

0

13

19

2.25

0.65

Perfect example why you shoudlnt spend to much for a closer. Him & Hendy below have provided quite the ROI thus far

p

81

Jim Henderson

2

9

23

0.95

0.79

Samsies

p

33

Shelby Miller

5

0

62

1.74

0.93

Only 2 real pitches & 1st full season. He's a sell high in re-draft leagues as hitters will learn/catch-up.Still no reason to expect worse than a 3.5 ERA

p

143

Trevor Cahill

3

0

44

2.81

1.17

Along with Cobb, he's a GB/FB master; K/BB not nearly as nice as Cobb's which gives him an expected ERA slightly above 4.00. BABIP, HR/FB and LOB should regress negatively

b

77

Alex Cobb

5

0

54

2.73

1.13

Unlike Cahill, here's a GB/FB master with a great K/BB ratio approaching 4.0. Luck in the LOB% but bad luck in the HR/FB. Skill & Luck combined, he's should be a true 3.33 guy moving forward

b

30

Hisashi Iwakuma

5

0

61

2.37

0.87

5.55 K/BB with regression is still elite. xBABIP more like .260+ (currently .220 BABIP). Luck in the LOB dept as well. If GB/FB doesn't pick up to the elite level it was last year, we need more/continued luck in the HR/FB dept and the K/BB needs to remain elevated. SIERA says 3.10. Expect 3.5 to 3.7 here on out

b

37

Justin Masterson

7

0

71

2.83

1.13

The fly balls will turn into line drives jumping his BABIP back up to 3.00 (currently .278). If HR/FB and LOB% both regress his ERA will approach his expected ERA before you know it (3.5+)

b

18

Patrick Corbin

7

0

51

1.44

0.98

Epitomic example of luck. K/BB regressed from last year, but HR/FB (3.9%), LOB (88.2%) and BABIP (.246) all unsustainable althought the ^Velocity and great GB/FB ratio will keep him sub 3.75

TOTAL:

55

44

642

2.26

1.04

What would you have done differently in your league(s)? How good is your team? Send me your requests here for quick insight beyond a simple twitter response.

Otherwise, just comment below and Roto Banter away.

Daniel Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to answering visitor requests and promoting live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter.


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