Woulda Coulda Shoulda - Jean Segura & Starlin Marte

Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

I was hoping to have the first Mean Gean Okerlund reference, but it looks like B93 radio beat me to it so I guess I’ll go with this…Here’s a Jean trendier than skinny Jeans. AaaOoo. Jean Segura is tearing up the NL in his first full season thus far. Mid-season and at season’s end, I post a woulda-coulda-shoulda team by comparing player rater value relative to their pre-season average draft position. This year (in my most serious/big money league), I really only missed out on 3 targets...

First off, make sure you listen to the Fake Teams' Podcast every Monday. You can follow @Andrew_Ball and @FantasyNinja8 on Twitter in addition to Ray himself @faketeams. Here is the link to Monday's podcast. As it relates to the podcast, send us your requests here or of course on Fake Teams and we'll respond on the podcasts as well as by writing posts on Fake Teams.

...

I was hoping to have the first Mean GeanOkerlund reference, but it looks like B93 radio beat me to it so I guess I'll go with this...Here's a Jean trendier than skinny Jeans.

AaaOoo.

Jean Segura is tearing up the NL in his first full season thus far. Mid-season and at season's end, I post a woulda-coulda-shoulda team by comparing player rater value relative to their pre-season average draft position. This year (in my most serious/big money league), I really only missed out on 3 targets...

If it was my first year doing it, Jean Segura would be my #1 motivator for the woulda-coulda-shoulda team post, in addition to Starling Marte and Carlos Gomez. I could throw Paul Goldschmidt into the equation because I actually liked Freddie Freeman coming into this year slightly more for reasons I posted in my Ballsy Forecast, but that's already out the window. For this post, I'll stick to Jean Segura, his teammate Carlos Gomez and Starling Marte who have all displayed excellent speed and power thus far.

A few weeks back, I posted this on Carlos Gomez. We’ll take a quick look at him again here, while focusing on qualifying Jean Segura and Starling Marte to date.

Speed and BABIP:


The first two things to focus on are both quickly (speed) and obviously (BABIP)apparent. First, let’s look at their BABIP and expected (x)BABIP to date:

Segura

Team

BABIP

LD%

xBABIP

BABIPdiff

2012

2 Teams

0.302

15.20%

0.272

0.03

2013

Brewers

0.394

21.20%

0.332

0.062

2.1

Total

- - -

0.349

18.30%

0.303

0.046

S. Marte

Team

BABIP

LD%

2012

Pirates

0.333

18.40%

0.304

0.029

2013

Pirates

0.386

19.50%

0.315

0.071

2.4

Total

- - -

0.361

19.00%

0.31

0.051

Gomez

Team

BABIP

LD%

2010

Brewers

0.313

16.20%

0.282

0.031

2011

Brewers

0.273

11.90%

0.239

0.034

2012

Brewers

0.296

16.60%

0.286

0.01

2013

Brewers

0.413

19.10%

0.311

0.102

10.2

Total

- - -

0.311

16.80%

0.288

0.023

While Segura and Marte’s BABIP differential this year is about 2x as good as it was last year in limited playing time, Gomez’s BABIPdiff is literally 10x better than it was last year, which we can associate to 3+% more LD. It would have made more sense if this was predicated on Fly Balls turning into Line Drives, but instead he switched Ground Balls for Line Drives – still great, but it makes this elevation level less sustainable. 39% of Balls In Play falling for hits from Segura and Marte also seem just too high so let’s take a look at other speedsters and their BABIP differentials. According to Fangraphs, here are the top 43 speed scores (all > 5.0) and the same list to the right ranked by BABIP differential:

Name

BABIP

xBABIP

BABIPdiff

Spd

LD%

Name

BABIP

xBABIP

BABIPdiff

Spd

LD%

Elvis Andrus

0.329

0.363

-0.034

8.4

24.30%

Carlos Gomez

0.413

0.311

0.102

7.6

19.10%

Everth Cabrera

0.323

0.382

-0.059

8.3

26.20%

Alex Gordon

0.411

0.335

0.076

5.1

21.50%

Jacoby Ellsbury

0.28

0.299

-0.019

8.2

17.90%

Starling Marte

0.386

0.315

0.071

7.5

19.50%

Nate McLouth

0.302

0.338

-0.036

8.1

21.80%

Jean Segura

0.394

0.332

0.062

7.8

21.20%

Jean Segura

0.394

0.332

0.062

7.8

21.20%

Carlos Gonzalez

0.358

0.306

0.052

6.9

18.60%

Carlos Gomez

0.413

0.311

0.102

7.6

19.10%

Adam Jones

0.377

0.335

0.042

5.7

21.50%

Starling Marte

0.386

0.315

0.071

7.5

19.50%

Lorenzo Cain

0.375

0.339

0.036

6.9

21.90%

Brett Gardner

0.325

0.337

-0.012

7.3

21.70%

Manny Machado

0.368

0.332

0.036

6

21.20%

Hunter Pence

0.326

0.352

-0.026

7.3

23.20%

Shin-SooChoo

0.363

0.327

0.036

5.5

20.70%

David Wright

0.36

0.394

-0.034

7.3

27.40%

Josh Rutledge

0.268

0.255

0.013

5.6

13.50%

Desmond Jennings

0.297

0.335

-0.038

7.3

21.50%

Dexter Fowler

0.353

0.342

0.011

5.9

22.20%

Austin Jackson

0.336

0.385

-0.049

7.1

26.50%

Brandon Moss

0.358

0.35

0.008

5.5

23.00%

Mike Trout

0.311

0.32

-0.009

7

20.00%

Ian Desmond

0.322

0.323

-0.001

6

20.30%

Jason Kipnis

0.296

0.343

-0.047

7

22.30%

Alex Rios

0.312

0.313

-0.001

5.5

19.30%

Carlos Gonzalez

0.358

0.306

0.052

6.9

18.60%

A.J. Pollock

0.267

0.27

-0.003

5.5

15.00%

Lorenzo Cain

0.375

0.339

0.036

6.9

21.90%

Jeff Francoeur

0.271

0.275

-0.004

5.6

15.50%

Aaron Hicks

0.169

0.251

-0.082

6.9

13.10%

Justin Upton

0.301

0.307

-0.006

5.5

18.70%

Carl Crawford

0.317

0.37

-0.053

6.7

25.00%

Ben Zobrist

0.283

0.289

-0.006

5.5

16.90%

Brian Dozier

0.264

0.285

-0.021

6.5

16.50%

Mike Trout

0.311

0.32

-0.009

7

20.00%

Juan Pierre

0.252

0.32

-0.068

6.5

20.00%

Ichiro Suzuki

0.263

0.273

-0.01

5.8

15.30%

Omar Infante

0.326

0.368

-0.042

6.2

24.80%

David DeJesus

0.318

0.329

-0.011

6

20.90%

Chase Utley

0.283

0.302

-0.019

6.1

18.20%

Brett Gardner

0.325

0.337

-0.012

7.3

21.70%

Andy Dirks

0.266

0.375

-0.109

6.1

25.50%

Jacoby Ellsbury

0.28

0.299

-0.019

8.2

17.90%

Manny Machado

0.368

0.332

0.036

6

21.20%

Denard Span

0.313

0.332

-0.019

5.5

21.20%

Ian Desmond

0.322

0.323

-0.001

6

20.30%

Chase Utley

0.283

0.302

-0.019

6.1

18.20%

David DeJesus

0.318

0.329

-0.011

6

20.90%

Brian Dozier

0.264

0.285

-0.021

6.5

16.50%

Angel Pagan

0.282

0.344

-0.062

6

22.40%

Hunter Pence

0.326

0.352

-0.026

7.3

23.20%

Andrew McCutchen

0.287

0.352

-0.065

6

23.20%

Elvis Andrus

0.329

0.363

-0.034

8.4

24.30%

Dexter Fowler

0.353

0.342

0.011

5.9

22.20%

David Wright

0.36

0.394

-0.034

7.3

27.40%

Ichiro Suzuki

0.263

0.273

-0.01

5.8

15.30%

Nate McLouth

0.302

0.338

-0.036

8.1

21.80%

Adam Jones

0.377

0.335

0.042

5.7

21.50%

Desmond Jennings

0.297

0.335

-0.038

7.3

21.50%

Josh Rutledge

0.268

0.255

0.013

5.6

13.50%

Omar Infante

0.326

0.368

-0.042

6.2

24.80%

Jeff Francoeur

0.271

0.275

-0.004

5.6

15.50%

Jason Kipnis

0.296

0.343

-0.047

7

22.30%

Asdrubal Cabrera

0.297

0.352

-0.055

5.6

23.20%

Austin Jackson

0.336

0.385

-0.049

7.1

26.50%

Shin-SooChoo

0.363

0.327

0.036

5.5

20.70%

Carl Crawford

0.317

0.37

-0.053

6.7

25.00%

Brandon Moss

0.358

0.35

0.008

5.5

23.00%

Asdrubal Cabrera

0.297

0.352

-0.055

5.6

23.20%

Alex Rios

0.312

0.313

-0.001

5.5

19.30%

Everth Cabrera

0.323

0.382

-0.059

8.3

26.20%

A.J. Pollock

0.267

0.27

-0.003

5.5

15.00%

Angel Pagan

0.282

0.344

-0.062

6

22.40%

Justin Upton

0.301

0.307

-0.006

5.5

18.70%

Andrew McCutchen

0.287

0.352

-0.065

6

23.20%

Ben Zobrist

0.283

0.289

-0.006

5.5

16.90%

Alcides Escobar

0.262

0.328

-0.066

5.4

20.80%

Denard Span

0.313

0.332

-0.019

5.5

21.20%

Juan Pierre

0.252

0.32

-0.068

6.5

20.00%

Alcides Escobar

0.262

0.328

-0.066

5.4

20.80%

Aaron Hicks

0.169

0.251

-0.082

6.9

13.10%

Alex Gordon

0.411

0.335

0.076

5.1

21.50%

Andy Dirks

0.266

0.375

-0.109

6.1

25.50%

Total:

0.315

0.328

-0.0121

6.5

0.2076

Total:

0.315

0.328

-0.0121

6.5

0.2076

Gomez, Marte and Segura in this order have 3 of the top 4 BABIP differentials, but all 3 rank in the top 7 as is relates to Fangraph’s Speed Score. Relative to the rest of the group (by way of the 1.51 GB/FB ratio), both Marte and Segura are using their speed to beat out ground balls, which we can determine from their infield hits (15 for Segura, 8 for Marte and 5 for Gomez). All three are also benefiting by not popping the ball up in the infield (5.7%, 3.1% and 2.3% for Segura,Marte and Gomez respectively). Looking at the BABIP differentials from others with a 7+ Speed Score, we should have seen something similar to:

Jean Segura = .320 vs. .364

Carlos Gomez = .273 vs. .336

Starling Marte = .269 vs. .305

Discipline:

Name

BB/K

BABIP

xBABIP

BABIPdiff

Spd

GB/FB

LD%

IFFB%

HR/FB

O-Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

Starling Marte

0.2

0.386

0.315

0.071

7.5

2.22

19.50%

3.10%

15.60%

37.20%

78.60%

10.60%

Jean Segura

0.42

0.394

0.332

0.062

7.8

2.09

21.20%

5.70%

20.00%

32.40%

82.60%

8.30%

Carlos Gomez

0.22

0.413

0.311

0.102

7.6

1.02

19.10%

2.30%

13.60%

38.00%

76.00%

12.80%

Avg:

0.483

0.315

0.328

-0.0121

6.4698

1.5151

0.20756

0.089

0.11388372

0.286

0.821976744

0.07934884

While worse than average relative to the other 40 guys, Jean Segura is well ahead of Marte and Gomez as we can see from his BB/K ratio (.42), Contact rate (82.6%), Outside of the zone swing rate (32.4%) and swing & miss rate (8.3%). At SS, he’s by far the best option moving forward from this group. Even his HR/FB ratio is the most impressive…

HR Potential:


Here is how Segura, Marte and Gomez rank (left-most column) thus far from a homerun to flyball ratio perspective, with their average homerun and flyball distance according to Baseball Heatmaps Batted Ball Leaderboard also emphasized:

HR/FB Rank

Name

BB/K

GB/FB

IFFB%

HR/FB

O-Swng

Z-Swng

Swng%

O-Ct%

Z-Ct%

Ct%

Avg. FB&HR Distance

20

Carlos Gonzalez

0.62

1

10.40%

20.80%

29.70%

62.80%

42.90%

60.50%

85.70%

75.20%

308.58

21

Wilin Rosario

0.21

0.89

6.80%

20.50%

35.20%

75.50%

52.10%

56.40%

83.40%

72.90%

299.17

22

Miguel Cabrera

0.91

1.07

5.60%

20.40%

34.90%

78.40%

54.40%

71.20%

89.90%

83.30%

310.18

23

Jean Segura

0.42

2.09

5.70%

20.00%

32.40%

67.50%

48.30%

73.00%

88.10%

82.60%

298.65

24

Carlos Santana

0.77

1.37

0.00%

20.00%

23.00%

58.90%

38.00%

65.90%

90.40%

81.70%

n/a

25

Prince Fielder

0.83

1.22

13.30%

20.00%

25.40%

62.80%

40.80%

66.40%

81.00%

75.60%

304.68

26

Howie Kendrick

0.27

2.47

0.00%

20.00%

41.20%

68.90%

54.60%

60.70%

88.70%

77.80%

277.52

27

Justin Ruggiano

0.36

1.37

2.90%

20.00%

27.90%

74.10%

49.30%

45.80%

76.40%

67.10%

294.22

28

Domonic Brown

0.29

1.69

11.40%

20.00%

32.50%

74.80%

50.70%

71.40%

84.70%

79.90%

268.45

Avg:

0.52

1.463

0.0623

0.2019

0.3136

0.693

0.479

0.6348

0.8537

0.7734

295.18125

46

Kelly Johnson

0.41

0.86

9.30%

16.30%

22.60%

66.40%

42.20%

63.50%

86.40%

79.60%

283.87

47

Adam Jones

0.22

1.97

2.60%

15.80%

37.90%

74.20%

54.20%

60.10%

86.00%

76.00%

290.15

48

Brandon Moss

0.38

0.76

2.60%

15.80%

29.20%

71.70%

48.30%

45.30%

80.00%

68.40%

282.36

49

Starling Marte

0.2

2.22

3.10%

15.60%

37.20%

63.40%

50.00%

63.00%

88.20%

78.60%

282.46

50

Yuniesky Betancourt

0.27

1.02

9.60%

15.40%

42.40%

72.60%

57.70%

74.00%

90.90%

84.70%

283.96

51

Alejandro De Aza

0.21

0.87

4.30%

15.20%

28.20%

63.40%

44.50%

59.80%

87.50%

78.10%

283.36

52

Evan Longoria

0.49

0.7

5.00%

15.00%

20.30%

63.30%

39.60%

72.80%

84.50%

81.30%

290.78

53

Matt Holliday

0.82

1.6

10.00%

15.00%

28.20%

82.70%

51.10%

74.30%

86.50%

82.60%

288.93

Avg:

0.38

1.25

0.0581

0.1551

0.3075

0.6971

0.4845

0.641

0.8625

0.7866

285.73375

55

Josh Donaldson

0.68

1.48

11.90%

14.30%

27.30%

63.60%

44.20%

75.00%

84.80%

81.50%

285.24

56

Nick Swisher

0.67

0.95

2.40%

14.30%

23.10%

66.80%

40.40%

59.80%

87.40%

77.90%

259.69

57

Andy Dirks

0.62

1.5

14.30%

14.30%

34.80%

71.40%

49.30%

76.20%

90.10%

84.20%

278.6

58

Ryan Howard

0.2

0.98

0.00%

14.30%

35.80%

74.40%

51.90%

41.10%

80.70%

64.80%

303.63

59

J.J. Hardy

0.44

1.18

8.90%

14.30%

29.70%

55.80%

42.30%

81.10%

93.70%

89.10%

282.05

60

David Wright

0.87

0.98

9.30%

14.00%

24.20%

70.20%

45.70%

70.90%

86.80%

82.30%

295.32

61

Carlos Gomez

0.22

1.02

2.30%

13.60%

38.00%

76.30%

55.60%

60.00%

85.50%

76.00%

276.74

62

Buster Posey

1.05

1.32

2.30%

13.60%

24.40%

61.30%

40.00%

77.00%

88.80%

84.60%

299.19

63

Alex Gordon

0.18

1.41

2.30%

13.60%

33.20%

63.30%

46.60%

69.80%

86.30%

79.80%

290.72

64

Daniel Nava

0.72

0.7

4.50%

13.60%

24.40%

59.70%

39.80%

67.10%

92.00%

83.40%

274.31

65

Yonder Alonso

0.45

1.3

9.10%

13.60%

30.90%

71.90%

47.50%

68.20%

86.80%

79.60%

272.86

Avg:

0.55

1.165

0.0612

0.1395

0.2962

0.6679

0.4575

0.6784

0.8754

0.8029

283.4863636

Recommendations:

Other than their BB/K ratios, there’s really nothing too disconcerting here – maybe small drop-offs for Marte and Gomez from a HR/FB perspective if we look at their average HR and FB distance compared to the rest of their groupings above. On the other hand, Segura’s average distance fits just fine with his HR/FB rank, but like Marte, his homerun total will be affected by the amount of fly balls that he hits (not much more than 25%). Expect their speed to positively affect their BABIP allowing an average of .310+ for Segura (35+ stolen bases) and .270+ for Marte (27+ SB) but we shouldn’t expect homerun totals approaching 25 for either of them.

Recent Performance worth Monitoring:

Starling Marte only has 2 extra base hits in the last 34 at-bats and a 2:11 BB/K ratio in his last 10 games, which includes no stolen bases. Unlike Segura, I would sell high unless you are in a long term keeper/dynasty league.

Same for Carlos Gomez - sell high. He could still go 20 hr 30 sb, but over his last 10 games, he has a 2:14 BB/K ratio with only 2 extra base hits (0 homeruns). His .336 with 6 HR and 9 SB should look awfully nice to the others in your leagues. I’m not saying give him away, but at this point in the season, you can get some real value for him. Feel free to send the offers that you see here and we’ll offer our feedback.

Jean Segura on the other hand (excluding walking) continues to romp. Over his last 10 games, he’s increased his average from .333 to .364 while incurring his owners 3 HR and 6 SB. A 23 year old SS who should continue to develop power and lift the ball a bit more, he should be a 17+ HR/34+ SB threat for years to come including this year with continued luck.


Daniel Schwartz owns and contributes for Rotobanter.com – dedicated to answering visitor requests and promoting live discussion. You can follow him on Twitter @Rotobanter.

Latest News

In This Article

Teams
Players

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Fake Teams

You must be a member of Fake Teams to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fake Teams. You should read them.

Join Fake Teams

You must be a member of Fake Teams to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fake Teams. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker