Production Levels and Andrew McCutchen

Justin Edmonds

After a career year, what would across the board reductions to McCutchen's production look like? Increases?

I don't think it would cause any consternation to say that 2012 was a career year for Andrew McCutchen. He set career highs in most every category, so it's just a statement of fact. I might be more alone in thinking that 2012 will go down as his career year. I know he's only 26, meaning he's just entering his prime where his numbers should be going up...but I can't get past the drastic increase in HR/FB% nor the increase in home runs while seeing his GB% increase and FB% decrease (significantly). Obviously some of those numbers will fluctuate year to year, but I don't see his power increasing, and I'm skeptical that he will reach the 30 homer plateau again.

That doesn't mean he can't be a useful player though, as the chart below will show you. People requested a 110% line to show what increased production would look like in certain categories, so I've provided one.

Baseline: 2012 673 593 .326 .400 .553 107 31 96 20
110% 673 593 .360 .435 .608 118 34 106 22
90% 673 593 .294 .365 .497 96 28 86 18
80% 673 593 .262 .330 .442 86 25 77 16
70% 673 593 .229 .293 .387 75 22 67 14
60% 673 593 .196 .255 .332 64 19 58 12

I'll repeat from previous iterations of this column - this isn't analytical. It's purely a look at what some of these guys numbers look like reduced by ten percent increments from a set baseline. When I have the time, I will try to find guys that are approximate matches for the different full season lines to highlight the difference in value each reduction will represent. Unfortunately, life has been busy lately, so I'm going to leave you guys on your own for that, for now.

Let me know if there is anyone in particular you'd like to see this for in the future.

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