Clash - Should They Stay or Should They Go: Ike, Ichiro & Doumit

C'mon Ike - Mike Stobe

The requests are rolling in, and please continue. This one was titled "impatience", and I know how this guy feels on two out of three of these players: Ike Davis, Ichiro Suzuki and Ryan Doumit. Here’s the request...

...This indecisions bugging me

If you don't want me, set me free...

Exactly who I'm supposed to be...

-Clash

The requests are rolling in, and please continue. This one was titled impatience by Thomas, and I know how this guy feels on two out of three of these players: Ichiro Suzuki, Ike Davis and Ryan Doumit.

Here’s the request:

At what point do I lose patience with Ike Davis, Ichiro Suzuki and Ryan Doumit. 14 team roto 5x5 with a very thin waiver wire. 3 catchers I was looking at however are John Jaso, Wellington Castillo and Chris Ianetta. 1B and OF have virtually no viable options.

The easy answer is hold strong since there are no viable alternatives to Ike Davis and Ichiro Suzuki. I am. I need Plate Appearances and Stolen Bases in one league and figured with the Yankees in shambles, Ichiro would man the 1st or 2nd spot in their order in the early-going. Meh. Ike Davis I thought would finish top 5-8 in the NL Homerun race. Lastly, I’m not a huge Ryan Doumit fan, but he’s a fine 2nd Catcher in most leagues.

The first thing I have to reference is our sample size. We haven’t arrived at any thresholds just yet:

Offense Statistics:

  • 50 PA: Swing%
  • 100 PA: Contact Rate
  • 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
  • 200 PA: Walk Rate, Ground Ball Rate, GB/FB
  • 250 PA: Fly Ball Rate
  • 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
  • 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
  • 550 PA: ISO

The only threshold we’re really approaching is Swing% and interestingly enough all three are under their career average which may somewhat qualify their (un)comfort level to date, but we’re not close in any other of the above categories.

Let’s look at their rates to date anyhow compared to their average since 2010:

Doumit

AVG

BABIP

GB/FB

HR/FB

BB/K

O-Swing%

Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

wOBA

2013

0.174

0.222

1.73

0.00%

0.4

24.70%

41.40%

81.40%

9.20%

0.23

since '10

0.268

0.302

1.12

11.0%

0.39

32.01%

46.11%

79.58%

9.30%

0.332












Ichiro

AVG

BABIP

GB/FB

HR/FB

BB/K

O-Swing%

Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

wOBA

2013

0.176

0.167

1.33

8.30%

0.75

31.00%

43.80%

82.80%

7.50%

0.226

since '10

0.288

0.314

2.39

4.9%

0.49

35.22%

49.39%

90.08%

4.73%

0.303












I. Davis

AVG

BABIP

GB/FB

HR/FB

BB/K

O-Swing%

Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

wOBA

2013

0.128

0.154

0.91

9.10%

0.5

25.20%

41.00%

76.60%

9.30%

0.207

since '10

0.248

0.286

1.02

16.4%

0.48

27.89%

43.24%

75.59%

10.25%

0.340

Here’s how these skills/factors correlate year to year:

Contact %

0.9

SwStr %

0.89

Swing %

0.84

K%

0.84

Z-Swing %

0.83

O-Contact %

0.81

Z-Contact %

0.8

BB%

0.78

BUH

0.77

GB/FB

0.77

GB%

0.76

O-Swing %

0.75

ISO

0.73

HR/FB

0.73

FB%

0.73

SLG

0.63

OPS

0.63

OBP

0.62

wOBA

0.61

IFH

0.59

IFFB%

0.56

F-Strike %

0.56

Zone %

0.52

IFH%

0.44

Batting Average

0.41

BABIP

0.35

BUH%

0.24

LD%

0.22

Delving into each player:

Ryan Doumit: Thus far, Doumit has had slightly more discipline than his career average by way of his BB/K ratio, Contact%, swing outside of the zone% and swing and miss at strikes%. The issue to date is his balls in play data, and because these tend to correlate well year to year, we have to think his ground ball to fly ball ratio will regress positively, and his batting average on balls in play will rebound which will associate to a higher batting average as well. Recommendation: Over the options that Thomas mentioned, show patience. For reference, Jaso is an asset in OBP leagues.

Ichiro Suzuki: Unlike Doumit, Ichiro is one who has utilized his legs and balls in play data to hit for a high average. His approach seemed to change last year after the Yankees acquired him. He looked as though he was attempting to lift the ball more and take advantage of the short porch in right, and he’s not doing anything this year to show me otherwise. Thus far his GB/FB ratio is way below his career average and at his age, his Ct% will start dropping. Because we’re not near the 100 PA mark, I still have to think there should be a significant rebound but if he doesn’t pick it up by the time Curtis Granderson is back, he can start losing playing time. Recommendation: I need more appearances to make a completely rational recommendation. I’m not dropping him and still expect a 75-10-50-25-.270+ line from him which in a 14 team league certainly plays.

Ike Davis: In my ballsy forecast, I was close to titling #6 Ike Davis and Wilin Rosario will both finish in the top 3 NL HR race. At this point I probably would have been right as it relates to Rosario, but not on Davis. Thus far his GB/FB rate and BB/K rates are realistic depictions. Even is contact rate looks like it could generalize. He’s missing strikes less and he’s swinging outside of the zone less. Even his BIP data looks good:

2013 GB/FB/LD: 37/40.7/22.2%

Career GB/FB/LD: 41/40.4/18.6%

If Davis can keep this G/F/L line going throughout the year this year, we can actually see his best year yet! On the surface, the issue points almost completely to his batting average on balls in play data – a horrific .154 which has yielded a .128 batting average. It’s still disconcerting because a slow start and bad babip-related luck last year dragged his numbers down. The same thing is already happening this year, but here’s a solid buy-low candidate per . Just sit him against lefties (even though he’s sucked against righties thus far as well). Recommendation: He’ll never be an elite option because of his discipline/contact related peripherals, but he should be a perennial 70r-30hr-90rbi contributor and unless the Mets acquire a power outfielder, Lucas Duda won’t be consuming much of Davis’ 1B time.

If you have requests and would like responses via posts on Fake Teams, please send them in here.

Daniel Schwartz is the owner and contributor for Rotobanter.com – a fantasy baseball site dedicated to visitor requests and live discussion. You can follow him on twitter @Rotobanter.

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