Last week I wrote about the difficulties I've had in my keeper league during the draft. I would tend to focus too much on the future and potential and what could be, and never stuck to a plan. For that reason I had to finally adhere to something, in this case it was the FakeTeams Top 200, and so I would not wind up with Wil Myers over Aramis Ramirez. And as "oh God, seriously?" as that sounds in my head, we are also talking about one fantasy season, not the real life impact of these players over the long term and their value. But much like in my real life, I've got more than just one problem.
In fantasy baseball, I am entirely too reactional to small sample size meltdowns and blow-ups.
Last season I was feeling like a losey-loser again after almost a month into the season, and Mike Trout was blowing up my roster spot by wasting away in the minor leagues. Whether that was fair or not for the Angels to do, it wasn't helping me not suck again. Don't forget that Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 40 games as a rookie or that I, as previously stated, had been burned year after year by potential over production. I mean, how good could Mike Trout be in 2012? What if he's the next Brandon Wood?
Well, you know where this is going. I dropped him, I suck, I didn't make the playoffs, I am an L-7 weenie loser. In this case I had previously let my "potential over production" land me Trout, and then my "well it's been one week into the season and he's doing nothing" ruin me all over again. I actually don't remember how long I kept Trout on my bench with an "NA" tag, but I probably still would have lost faith and over-reacted when he was finally called up after the Angels had already played 20 games; Trout went 4-for-22 with 5 strikeouts over his first six games last year. He clearly stinks.
I learned years ago to not ignore small sample size... in real baseball. I've somehow managed to completely ignore rationality when it comes to fantasy baseball. To be fair, you don't have as much time in fantasy baseball to be patient, you've only got one shot and you don't want to miss your chance to blow, etc. But if you're making calculated decisions in the first place, have the balls to stick with them for a reasonable amount of time. Bryce Harper isn't going to hit 324 home runs. (The Marlins might go 0-162)
As opening week continues, remember one very important thing about baseball: The season is long as s*^#! Be patient.