FanPost

Know Your Splits: Jon Jay in The Lou

Splits are a Head-to-Head (H2H) man’s game. A “roto” man says, “Who cares if Player A hit .210 vs. LHP if he hit .300 on the season?” A H2H man says, “I do. Thanks for asking.” End scene.

You only get so many ABs over the course of a matchup. You can't waste those ABs by sticking a hitter in your lineup whose team is on the road when that hitter can't hit on the road. Or when that hitter can't hit vs. LHP or when that hitter can't hit during day games. You can't do it. Don't do it. It's a wasted opportunity and a drain on your BA.

Therefore, this post is with the H2H player in mind. Although, if your roto league allows daily moves or deep benches, it most certainly could apply. This post is with the player seeking late round value and waiver wire gold in mind. This post is with you in mind. This post is with Jon Jay in mind.

Look up “Snooze Fest” in the dictionary, and you won’t find anything. Because Snooze Fest isn’t a word or anything that actually exists. But were such a thing to exist, there would be a picture of Jon Jay next to the definition of it. Essentially, that was a very long way of saying that Jon Jay is boring. Jon Jay is boring because Jon Jay doesn’t hit home runs (18 career). Home runs are king in fantasy baseball. Not unlike chicks, fantasy baseball owners dig long balls. What Jon Jay does do is hit for average, steal a base here and there and score runs. And Jon Jay hits for average, steals bases and scores runs much, much better at Busch Stadium than on the road.

Batting Average

Would you believe me if I said that Jon Jay hit .384 at Busch Stadium last year? You should. Because he did. And because it’s extremely easy information to find. .384! Ted Williams just called to say, “Meh.” But, I mean, to get Ted Williams to make a phone call these days is pretty impressive in its own right. Don't you think? Now. Let's compare that to his road BA. Jon Jay only hit .224 on the road in 2012. Yikes! That’s good for a difference of .160 or roughly a good BA season for Carlos Pena.

For his career, Jon Jay is a .332 hitter in The Lou as opposed to a .272 hitter on the road. .272 is nothing to sneeze at, but considering the lack of HR and SB, it’s not going get you all hot and bothered either. If you prefer being hot, bothered or both simultaneously, pencil Jon Jay into a OF spot when the Red Birds are enjoying home cooking and dominate in BA that matchup. Unless you have Carlos Pena in your lineup as well. In which case, umm… I don’t know. Maybe take up stamp collecting or a new hobby? Model cars? Make a Harlem Shake video? The world is your oyster. YOLO.

Home Runs

Nope. Nothing to see here. I mean, yeah, Jon Jay has hit more home runs at home than on the road in his career (10 to 8), but, no. Just. No.

RBI

See “Home Runs” above.

Stolen Bases

To further illustrate the boringness that is Jon Jay, Jon Jay has a career total of 27 SB. Basically, were Jon Jay to receive a full season of ABs you might expect 10-12 SB from him. Which is nothing from a OF. But, 19 of those 27 SB have been at home. Were Jon Jay to receive a full season of ABs at Busch Stadium, you might expect 25-30 SB from him. So, at home, Jon Jay steals bases at the rate of Desmond Jennings, Angel Pagan, Drew Stubbs, etc. Unfortunately the Cardinals will require Jon Jay to play games on the road. Fortunately your fantasy team will not.

Runs

According to stats available on ESPN.com, Jon Jay has scored 101 of his 173 career runs at Busch Stadium. That’s good for 58% of his total runs scored. Which isn’t all that cray cray until you see that Jon Jay has 65 fewer career ABs (560 to 625) at Busch Stadium than on the road. Therefore, another way to say it, and a way that makes my argument for this post more valid and worth the time you are taking to read it, would be to say that Jon Jay scores a run in roughly one out of every five ABs at Busch Stadium as opposed to one out of every 10 on the road. Or that Jon Jay scores a run at home as often as Mike Trout scores a run, period. Mike Trout is good at baseball.

After recent, BIG news that indicates Rafael Furcal is out for all of 2013, Jon Jay stands to be the Cardinals leadoff hitter to start the year and maybe to end it. Therefore, were you to roster Jon Jay in a week where the Cardinals played six or seven home games, you could expect roughly 26-30 ABs from Jon Jay and roughly 5-6 runs added to your matchup or season total. Prorated over a full season and that’s something close to 60+ runs. I know. This isn’t an exact science, Bill Nye. Show me an exact science in baseball and I will say, “Wow! I didn’t think you would be able to. Huh? I’m impressed. Nice work.” This is simply to show that at this point in his career, it’s a pretty safe bet and a pretty smart play to assume that Jon Jay can contribute to your run total in weeks he is at Busch Stadium.

In Summary

To sum it, Jon Jay hits like Joe Mauer … at home. Jon Jay scores runs like Mike Trout … at home and Jon Jay steals bases like Angel Pagan … at home. Jon Jay is about to turn 28, is in the beginning of his prime and might have just inherited the leadoff role on one of the best teams in the NL. Right now Jon Jay has an ADP of 313 on Mock Draft Central. Right now Jon Jay is dirt cheap.

If your benches are deep, draft Jon Jay and stash him away for weeks and series at home. If your benches aren’t deep, keep an eye on the upcoming schedule and grab Jon Jay a day or two before St. Louis starts a long home stand. Trust me. He will be available. Jon Jay is always available. Because. As mentioned. Jon Jay doesn’t hit home runs or do anything exciting whatsoever on the baseball field. Ever.

Don’t be deterred by the boringness that is Jon Jay. Just know your splits.

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