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Ray Guilfoyle profiles five hitters to avoid in 2013.
Yesterday, I profiled 10 hitters fantasy owners should target in 2013 drafts, so today it makes sense to give you my list of 5 hitters to avoid this season. The hitters I am avoiding are hitters who are ranked too high based on their current ADPs, or own negative trends in their performance over the past few seasons, or just guys coming off career years.
So, here are the 5 hitters I am avoiding in drafts in 2013, unless they fall a round or two from their current ADPs. Everyone has their price!
Albert Pujols, LAA
His power numbers are in a 3 year downtrend, and he is coming off offseason knee surgery. His home runs have dropped from 47 in 2009 to 30 last season, his ISO and SLG over the same period have dropped as well:
2009: .331 ISO/ .658 SLG
2010: .284 ISO/ .586 SLG
2011: .242 ISO/ .541 SLG
2012: .231 ISO/ .516 SLG
Not good, and and OBP is in a similar trend in the wrong direction. In talking to an owner in one of my keeper leagues, he projects Pujols to hit 30 HRs, 110 RBI and hit .310 in 2013. I will take the under on all three hitting categories.
Ian Desmond, WAS
Desmond is a solid fantasy shortstop, but if you think he will hit 25 home runs again this season, don't count on it. Prior to the 2012 season, he had hit 22 career home runs in about 1,200 plate appearances. Last season, he hit 25 bombs in 547 plate appearances, thanks to a tripling of his HR/FB rate from 6.0% to 18.2%. His HR/FB% trend goes like this:
One of those does not seem to belong.
Chase Headley, SD
Headley is being drafted based on a career year in 2012. Heading into the 2012 season, he had hit 27 home runs in about 1,700 plate appearances. Last season, he hit 31 home runs in just under 700 plate appearances. And here is the trend in his HR/FB rate:
Even with the fences coming in at Petco Park this season, he will not hit 30 home runs in 2013. I bet he hits in the neighborhood of 18-21 home runs this season.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
Why does Paul Goldschmidt have an ADP of 19.40 per Mock Draft Central? 19.40? There are about 30 players I would rather have than Goldschmidt. He was selected as the 41st overall pick in the Tout Wars mixed league draft I participated in on Monday night. He is being draft too early for me.
Jose Bautista, TOR
Bautista has an ADP of 8.77 per MDC. All of his value, in most leagues, comes from his power. He has excellent power. But, he is coming off a wrist surgery, and power hitter's coming off wrist injuries tend to struggle the year after returning from wrist surgery. I prefer Jay Bruce with an ADP of 25.41 over Bautista if you are looking for someone to hit 40 home runs in 2013.