Last week, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers traded starter Tyler Skaggs and outfielder Adam Eaton in a three team deal that landed him power hitting outfielder Mark Trumbo. Towers was panned by most every baseball writer out there, and I have to say, I agree with them. He gave up a lot for a power hitter who doesn't get on base much.
Here is what Trumbo has accomplished in his three full seasons in the major leagues, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:
|162 Game Avg.||162||605||77||151||28||2||33||100||41||164||.250||.299||.469||.768||114|
He hits for lots of power and drives in runs. Something the Diamondbacks haven't had much of lately, with the exception of first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. They traded away Justin Upton last offseason, but Upton seems to have a problem driving in runs for a middle of the order hitter. Trumbo does not.
In his three full seasons, Trumbo is tied for fifth among all qualified hitters with 95 home runs. He is tied with Giancarlo Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion with 95 home runs, behind only Jay Bruce, Jose Bautista, Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera, all players who get much more love than Trumbo in fantasy drafts.
Over the same three year period, Trumbo has driven in 282 runs, good for 11th amongst all qualified hitters. Here is the list of players who have driven in more runs than Trumbo over the last three seasons:
Here is another startling stat: the number of 30 home run hitters is shrinking. Below is the number of 30 home run hitters in each of the last ten seasons:
That's a steep drop in 2013 and I am curious how this plays out in 2014. I could see the number increasing a bit, but the 30 home run hitter is becoming more and more of a commodity in major league baseball, and Towers wants to corner the market on them, it seems.
Consider this: over the five year period 2004-2008, we saw an average of 30 hitters with 30 home runs. Over the next five years, 2009-2013, the average dropped to 22. That's quite a drop from one five year period to the next.
With Goldschmidt and Trumbo in the middle of the Diamondbacks lineup, Towers now has two guys who can hit 30+ home runs and drive in 90+ runs. The problem with Trumbo though, he rarely gets on base, and his strikeout rate is bumping up. Trumbo's career OBP is under .300, which is pretty terrible, and below league average. Lucky for him he is above league average in power. But over his three year career, he appears to be trading power for strikeouts. While his home run totals have increased in each of the past two seasons, his strikeout totals have increased almost 50% over the same time period.
Heading into 2014, I see Trumbo doing more of the same, hitting for power, driving in runs, striking out a lot and not walking. I can see him approaching 35-37 home runs hitting at Chase Field in 2014.
Let's hear your thoughts on Trumbo moving to Arizona in 2014 in the comment section below.
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