FanPost

The McCann Conundrum

So first off, please accept my apologies. It's been quite some time since I wrote a FanPost and I really want to convey a thought that has seemingly gone off the rails:

BRIAN MCCANN IS NOT THE BEST, NOR WILL HE EVER BE, THE BEST FANTASY CATCHER.

This has seemingly become the accepted school of thought that has taken hold here on Fake Teams, and I want to sound the alarm bell, the horns, and make a counterargument to this. Now, the quick and dirty on Mr. McCann would seemingly indicate that moving from Atlanta, a HR suppressing field, to the confines of Yankee Stadium and the jetstream that turns ordinary popups to home runs is enough to turn McCann into the #1 fantasy catcher in 2014. Here is Brian McCann's Career numbers, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

The noclick version(ignoring his rookie season when he played 59 games): 22 HR/80 RBI/.277/55R

There is the vanilla of the argument. McCann has had one truly elite season, waaaay back in 2008 at the tender age of 24:

5.5 WAR

.301/.373/.523 triple slash.

23 HR/87 RBI/68 Rs

This now looks like an outlier. If you look at his last three seasons, here is the player that has been anointed as the #1 catcher in fantasy by more than one writer here at Fake Teams:

128,121, 102 games played each year.

AVERAGE SEASON SINCE 2011:

21 HR/65 RBI/.252

Entering his age-30 season in 2014, I believe McCann's best days are behind him. Here are his closest comps, based on Sim Score, again courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

  1. Lance Parrish (924)
  2. Gary Carter (894) *
  3. Frankie Hayes (881)
  4. Bill Freehan (881)
  5. Yogi Berra (875) *
  6. Miguel Tejada (854)
  7. Del Crandall (854)
  8. Bill Dickey (853) *
  9. Yadier Molina (849)

Now Parrish completely dropped off after his age 30 season, with one decent season at age 34 but overall following the traditional catcher bell curve. Carter is a best case scenario, as he posted 4 straight 20 HR seasons after his age 30 season, however, he also had a higher peak season, with an 8.6 WAR season in 1982 at the age of 28. One non-catcher comp that pops up is Miguel Tejada. Now we know at this juncture he has been convicted/suspended due to PED usage, but he has a similar curve to Parrish, posting a very nice age 30 season that we do not know how much was influenced by PEDs, but after that, he fell off a cliff.

These evidences lead me to these conclusions:

1. We have seen McCann's best season, when he posted his 5.5 WAR season.

2. The new park will help, but to assume an across the board improvement at the age of 30 seems unlikely, especially with McCann moving to a new league.

Combine that with players like Carlos Santana & Buster Posey both entering their age 28 seasons, and Salvador Perez, Jonathan Lucroy and Yadier Molina, and the assertion that needs to be said is:

MCCANN AS #1 FANTASY CATCHER HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. BACK IN 2008.

DON'T PAY FOR THE HYPE OF "THE PARK"

Peace Out Fake Team Readers, hope you like my reentry into the blogosphere.

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